Falling in Love citat

Falling in love consists of 45 percent fear of not being accepted, 45 percent manic hope that this time the fear will be put to shame and a modest 10 percent frail awareness of the possibility of love. I don't fall in love any more. Just like I don't get the mumps.” ― Peter Høeg ... Different people have different ways of doing things. For me, becoming a songwriter first and falling in love with the Nashville songwriting community and the process of songs and getting better and putting more in what I wanted to say, was absolutely vital in me even wanting to be an artist. 2018-apr-04 - Utforska Adrian Ädels anslagstavla 'Love, Citat' på Pinterest. Visa fler idéer om Citat, Citat om kärlek, Kärlek. A Lot Like Love quotes: the most famous and inspiring quotes from A Lot Like Love. The best movie quotes, movie lines and film phrases by Movie Quotes .com Romantic quotes by famous authors & popular sayings. Love quotes for her & him, falling in love, love you, thinking of you, miss you, love forever, true love, wedding vows, spiritual, finding love, lost love and more. The best and the worst thing about love is that it cannot be expressed in words. When you truly love someone, it may be hard to express those emotions through words. In fact, real love may make you feel weak in the knees and unable to speak. „Falling into ruin was a bit like falling in love: Both descents stripped you bare and left you as you were at your core. And both endings are equally painful.“ Explore 1000 Love Quotes by authors including Lao Tzu, Martin Luther King, Jr., and Albert Einstein at BrainyQuote. 10. Love is utter magic 'Love is a smoke and is made with the fume of sighs.' — William Shakespeare, 'Romeo and Juliet' 11. Love is the answer to it all 'Love is the answer to everything. Love: it's a many-splendored thing, or it's all you need — sometimes it's even a battlefield. There are times when words fail us in matters of the heart, so it's nice to know that we can turn to ...

Thinking about the future and the conflict it will bring

2020.09.30 00:40 deihiru Thinking about the future and the conflict it will bring

So, conflict is the soul of storytelling [citation needed], and a big part of why I love catradora is the conflict they go through during the show and the conflicts they'll go through in the future.
For instance:
- Them falling into old habits like Catra only being tolerated by the other princesses because of Adora, and Adora feeling like she has to defend Catra.
- Adora struggling with her guilt over Angella's death and her love for Catra, and avoiding thinking about that by using unhealthy coping mechanism.
- I love the idea of them splitting up for a while.
- For a little external source of conflict, I want Mermista to try to make them break up for good. In part because of Salineas, but also because she think Adora is too good for Catra.
I have more, but I want to hear what types of conflict you'd like to see for catradora, or other characters or couples, post the season finale.
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2020.09.26 18:06 friedavizel Report from the NYC Hasidic community, which has been open for months

I haven’t been active on this sub since its early days because, well, I’ve tried to cope. But it’s so encouraging to see how wonderfully the sub turned out. There's so much thoughtful conversation. Much credit to the (active!) mods.
I want to fill you in on the Hasidic Jewish community, which provides a fascinating case study of an outlier community in NYC. This is going to be long. TL;DR below.
So I was raised in the Satmar Hasidic community. It is a very insular, closed off world. We are descendants of holocaust survivors, and our stubborn grandparents were determined hell over high waters not to become Americanized. So I grew up in a bubble. I spoke the Yiddish language. We had no TV, no movies. My marriage was arranged. We didn’t know about birth control so I was pregnant at nineteen, and expected to have lots of kids. My mother birthed more than a dozen.
The Hasidic community has outposts in Brooklyn with like 100K people in Williamsburg, plus even more people in Boro Park. They have some similar outposts in New York’s suburbs. In other words, they are a big and fast-growing group.
I left the community with my son ten years ago. Because, imagine this: I really couldn’t live down the tremendous conformity, the stifled intellectual life, the preening and virtue signaling. I wanted freedom to just live! Well, ironic isn’t it? Because ten years since I left, my work and my hobbies, and my son’s schooling all stopped, while the Hasidic community is living life as usual.
The Hasidim tried to lock down for maybe four weeks. The push to shut down was ferocious in the beginning, when there were several deaths per night (this might well be in part because of neglect and aggressive venting, per my conversation with the Hasidic funeral director.) According to my mother, the loudest most aggressive people were screaming at everyone to stay home. People celebrated an isolated Passover and held weddings in dining rooms or warehouses. Lots of people hunkered down in terror. The official community position was “we must listen to the government and experts”. To this day, the leadership tries to follow the health authorities. They are by no means lockdown skeptics.
But the lockdown was culturally impossible. This community doesn’t do computers in the house, no TV, no video games to get the kids to stop nagging mom. Hasidim are also a lot more communal so kids are usually in public spaces, like synagogues and schools. Parents are not used to holding the fort all on their own. They also aren’t anywhere near as obsessed with safetyism as the west, especially because martyrdom for a higher cause is a value. So people will say “our grandparents risked their lives from Nazis to observe sabbath, and we cower at home?” In other words, the cultural ingredients that made the lockdown happen for us in the secular side weren’t there for Hasidim. Zoom school and Netflix in pajamas: verboten.
Things began to open in April. At first, Hasidic families privately organized illegal schools for their kids. Then some of these classes moved to the school building, but many other families objected. Some even tattled to the media/city. Soon however, the holdouts caved and school went back to normal, even with bussing.
During the spring, the government kept sporadically intervening. Hasidic kids were chased out of schools and parks by cops. Shops and wedding venues got citations with heavy fines. Some of the interventions by the mayor or cops were covered in this sub. It was especially hypocritical because BLM protestors marched en masse Williamsburg, in the Hasidic area! And the mayor condoned one and condemned the other.
By early summer, the government seemed to look the other way. The community returned to normal. No masks, no nutty rules, no one ways, no pods, no spraying sanitizer into the air as you walk. I give walking tours in Williamsburg and we saw tens of school busses packed with kids, a packed Main Street, shops with people pushing elbow-to-elbow for designer bargains. Synagogues were as busy as any time. The people on my tour were stunned. We, and a few other “goyim”, were the only ones with masks.
Now if you are going to say “well, the Hasidic community probably naturally social distances, like Sweden” let me quickly dispel that. The community I give tours in is in New York City. Let me repeat; it’s in that populous city people always talk about. Not only that, but families are large - let’s estimate an average of eight people per household, including the parents. Folks are always mixing at the synagogue, at parties, at neighbor’s, friends and grandparents. I’d say most Hasidim traveled during the summer. If anything, they naturally socially spread it. The flu season always hits the community with a vengeance.
I had a close family wedding smack in the middle of the summer. Hordes of wedding guests of all ages came in pretty dresses and with sweet, full, open faces. The custom is to say “mazel tov”, shake hands and kiss the cheek. I sat next to my holocaust survivor grandmother who is up there in years. Hundreds of people came up to her to offer their congratulations: “mazel tov!”, shake hands, mua. She danced with little kids with great puffy dresses. I danced under-over and in the circle. I pressed into the sweaty palms of forgotten classmates who now have half a dozen kids or more. The music was loud enough to give you hearing loss, so we all bent into each other’s faces to scream our catching-up. It was lovely.
Everyone was fine. It’s many weeks later. Grandma is great.
Now, as the colder season arrives, there’s been an uptick of cases in the community. How bad are things? The charts from NYC gov don’t show any recognizable change for Brooklyn in either cases, hospitalizations or deaths. I’ve heard of people who had mild flu-like symptoms for a day or two, got tested and came back positive. It looks like barely anything is serious. If someone does get sick, generally an elderly person, the medical community is now pretty good at treating them. So why is the city threatening to lock down the Orthodox community?
Here’s the NYT on September 25:
“One city health official estimates that about a quarter of new Covid-19 cases in New York City appeared to be emanating from Orthodox Jewish communities, though the official acknowledged that at present the data was imperfect.”
Where is the proof? It is very hard to sift through cases and figure out which positives are from an Orthodox Jewish person. I know because it’s the kind of data I am always trying to sort out. And besides, Brooklyn has a huge Orthodox Jewish population (which is the larger umbrella under which Hasidim fall). What is the point of what this fool is even saying?
But here is the kicker in the NYT:
“Across one section of southern and central Brooklyn that include three neighborhoods - Midwood, Borough Park and Bensonhurst - about 4.7 percent of coronavirus tests were positive, which was far higher than in the rest of the city… Across the entirely of the city, between 1 percent and 2 percent of tests have been positive most days in the past two months.”
In other words, they are not measuring how many people in a population are sick, but of the people who decided to stick a q-tip into their brains, how many came back as positive. For those of you who thought the solution to the casedemic was to avoid asymptomatic testing, here is a depressing outcome. If you test fewer asymptomatic people, the ratio of positives will go up. In NYC, we need a ratio of under 3% to stay open. So you need a lot of healthy people to get tested in order to create the right percent. So you test many many people, and the percent goes down. But of course, the actual number of positives simultaneously goes up. And creates a new avenue for doom. You can’t win.
The Hasidim probably tested less. Hasidic businesses and schools didn’t require testing. And this: an audio recording circulated earlier this year of a community leader, Gedalya Szegedin, saying that medical facilities should test less because high numbers of positives were inviting a lot of negative scrutiny. (There is also another factor: a lot of Orthodox Jews go upstate in the summer and use medical services there - I don’t know how this played in.) So who knows what variable caused their numbers to look bad. It’s all Talmudic hair splitting and is divorced from reality.
In May, June, July, August of Hasidim proved that you can take off the mask and go back to life. What did we learn from them then? Nothing. Now that there is a morsel of uptick, it’s proof that their lack of compliance is causing a shocking relative percentage of 4.7! Are you scared yet?
Imagine how hard this circus will be ratcheted up if we have a harsh winter. This from the brains who point to the Hasidic community and call them the anti-science foolish fanatical bumpkins.
I thought I left the dogma for open minded world where honest inquiry was valued. What a barrel of laughs.

Edit: added the link that somehow got lost.
TL;DR The Hasidic Jews in NY have been back to normal for months and they’ve been fine. The recent uptick is seasonal and it’s benign. If we learn anything from them, it’s that all blanket precautions are largely useless and that herd immunity is the natural strategy.
submitted by friedavizel to LockdownSkepticism [link] [comments]


2020.09.26 00:47 tengrrl Reminder: Composition Studies editorial positions

A reminder that there are still a few days left to apply for 3 new position types at Composition Studies.
And, as we should have mentioned the first time, we welcome applications from teams for the blog editor position.
Best,
MD&kt
---------- Forwarded message ---------
Hi all,
Composition Studies is expanding-- and we'd love for you to join us! We've got three new position types--details below and on our website.
Best,
MD&kt
---_Composition Studies_ is looking to fill several new editorial positions to help run our social media platforms, produce issues, and develop a new blog. The journal is the peer-reviewed, biannual, independent journal (We also recently added open-access, guest-edited, summer special issues!). The oldest independent journal in the field, we at _CS_ are dedicated to publishing on a range of professional practices and topics associated with rhetoric and composition, but also to pieces that don’t fit neatly elsewhere. For more on the journal’s history, including the staff please visit our website.
What We Are Looking ForThese are unpaid positions—as are all positions at the journal. That said, we remain dedicated to negotiating healthy, productive working relationships within the editorial staff and looking for labor arrangements that honor your other commitments, whatever they might be. There are benefits to being a part of the editorial team of _CS_ including, but not limited to the following:
(We—both Kara and Matt—were both part of an editorial team during graduate school and found the process rewarding, and, in many ways, it led us to our current position as co-editors of CS. Thus, we hope to be able to provide a similar mentorship to any interested graduate students.)
Social Media Editor
Social Media Editor (SME) responsibilities would be to actively maintain a dedicated presence on Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook. Time commitment would be 3-5 hours per week and include building content for each platform, responding and engaging with audiences associated with each platform, and working collaboratively with the Editors. Must be able to maintain a schedule, pay attention to details, and creatively engage with each platform. We envision one SME but welcome applicants who might want to focus on one platform.
Content Editors
Content Editors (CE) are responsible for collaboratively copyediting all genres of the journal—accepted articles, course designs, Where We Are pieces, and At a Glance sections—with attention to style, accessibility, and readability. CE responsibilities include both surface issues and a “deep dive” into textual content, citations, etc. CE work primarily focuses on individual issues – fall, spring, and summer issues – and thus the expected commitment is greater during the production weeks. Must be able to meet strict deadlines that we negotiate at the beginning of each issue cycle.
Blog Editor
Soon, we will unveil a new feature of our website—a bi-weekly blog—that will serve several purposes but mainly will provide the field with shorter, scholarly and creative (but not peer-reviewed) pieces that respond more quickly to topics and inquiries in the field. The Blog Editor (BE) would work closely with the Editors to determine topics/discussions as well as extend invitations. The BE will also be responsible for editing the content for the blog. Must be a self-starter able to maintain a strict schedule, able to collaborate online and through different spaces, and have excellent copyediting skills. This position includes more autonomy than the SME or CE positions; the time commitment is also higher than the other positions as it will be a monthly feature on our website.
Required Qualifications for Each PositionAbility to:
Must have:
How To Apply
By 9/30/20, please send as a single PDF to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) that includes: - one-page (or shorter) letter of interest that describes your specific qualifications, explains the ways you are a self-starter and effective collaborator, and mentions which position you are interested in; - please also include the name and information for someone who can speak on your behalf of your qualifications; - an abbreviated CV.
We also welcome inquiries about the positions! Qualified applicants will then be invited to an informal interview with us and asked to provide a small sample of relevant work. We look forward to hearing from you!
via IFTTT
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2020.09.24 19:04 BarneyBuckley Haruo Nakajima: The Man in the Suit

Haruo Nakajima: The Man in the Suit

Haruo Nakajima
(中島 春雄 Nakajima Haruo, January 1, 1929 – August 7, 2017)
Mr. Haruo Nakajima was born on January 1, 1929 and he is a Japanese actosuit actor best known for portraying the suit actor for the Godzilla films from 1954 to 1972. He was in fact Godzilla for 12 movies straight. Haruo Nakajima was born in Sekita City a very small town located in the Yamagata Prefecture in Japan and he is considered by many fans and actors to be one of the best actors of Japan’s time. There are others actors that have portrayed Godzilla through the years. However this particular article is about Haruo Nakajima.
Mr. Nakajima had decided in 1972 after the completion of the movie Godzilla versus Gigan to retire from the suit acting business. It was during the 1970s when the company that he worked for (The Toho Motion Picture Company) decided to split the company into several subsidiaries Haruo Nakajima was in fact still an employee of the company for several years after that. He was in fact transfer to a job located at the bowling alley within the company which is located on the studio lot, but now has since been shut down.
While on retirements Haruo Nakajima in the late 1990s made several personal appearances in Chicago during what is called G-Fest and this convention has been going on since 1995. Is also made appearances in New York City, New Jersey as well as Hollywood in 2000. These are various Japanese monster themed conventions. In California Burbank to be exact on April 8 in 2011 he did attend what is called Monsterpalooza.
Haruo Nakajima in his life as also had an actual book based on his autobiography and it is simply called (Monster Life: Haruo Nakajima, The Original Godzilla Actor) and this is published by Yosensha and it was released on July 17, 2010.
As we all know he has been an actor since 1952 starring in such films as Sword for Hire, The Woman Who Touched the Legs (1952), Eagle of the Pacific (1953), Farewell Rabaul (1954), and Godzilla films from 1954 to 1972. As well as other movies in general. Below is a list all the movies that he has been in.
  • 1952 - Sword For Hire
  • 1952 - The Woman Who Touched the Legs
  • 1953 - Eagle of the Pacific
  • 1954 - Farewell Rabaul
  • 1954 - Seven Samurai
  • 1954 - Godzilla (Godzilla, Newspaper Writer)
  • 1954 - Tomei Ningen (Invisible Man)
  • 1955 - Meoto zenzai
  • 1955 - Godzilla Raids Again (Godzilla)
  • 1956 - Madame Whitesnake
  • 1956 - Rodan (Rodan, Meganulon, JSDF Officer)
  • 1957 - The Mysterians (Mogera, JDSF Officer)
  • 1958 - Varan the Unbelievable (Varan)
  • 1958 - The H-Man (The H-Man, Fishing Boat Crew)
  • 1958 - The Hidden Fortress
  • 1959 - Boss of the Underworld
  • 1959 - Submarine I-57 Will Not Surrender
  • 1959 - Desperado Outpost
  • 1959 - The Last Gunfight
  • 1960 - Secret of the Telegian
  • 1960 - Storm Over the Pacific
  • 1960 - Westward Desperado
  • 1960 - The Human Vapor
  • 1961 - Yojimbo
  • 1961 - Daredevil in the Castle
  • 1961 - Mothra (Mothra)
  • 1961 - The Last War
  • 1961 - The Story of Osaka Castle[2]
  • 1962 - King Kong vs. Godzilla (Godzilla)
  • 1962 - Chushingura: Hana no Maki, Yuki no Maki
  • 1963 - Wings Over the Pacific
  • 1963 - Sengoku Yaro
  • 1963 - Matango (Matango)
  • 1963 - Atragon
  • 1964 - Mothra vs. Godzilla (Godzilla)
  • 1964 - Dogora, the Space Monster
  • 1964 - Ghidorah, the Three-Headed Monster (Godzilla)
  • 1965 - Retreat from Kiska
  • 1965 - Frankenstein vs. Baragon (Baragon)
  • 1965 - Invasion of the Astro-Monster (Godzilla)
  • 1966 - The War of the Gargantuas (Gaira)
  • 1966 - What's Up, Tiger Lily[citation needed] (footage from Kokusai himitsu keisatsu: Kagi no kagi 1965)
  • 1966 - Godzilla vs. the Sea Monster (Godzilla)
  • 1967 - Son of Godzilla (Godzilla; water scenes only)
  • 1967 - King Kong Escapes (King Kong)
  • 1968 - Destroy All Monsters (Godzilla, Military Adviser)
  • 1969 - Latitude Zero (Gryphon, Manbat, Giant Rat, Lion)
  • 1969 - All Monsters Attack (Godzilla)
  • 1970 - Space Amoeba (Gezora, Ganime)
  • 1971 - Godzilla vs. Hedorah (Godzilla)
  • 1972 - Godzilla vs. Gigan (Godzilla, Comic Book Publisher, Defense Forces Officer)
  • 1973 - Japan Sinks (Prime Minister's Chauffeur)
TV
  • 1966 - Ultra Q (Gomess, Pagos)
  • 1966, 1967 - Ultraman (Neronga, Gabora, Jirass, Kiyla)
  • 1967, 1968 - Ultra Seven (U-Tom)
I will say that no one deserves more credit for Godzilla enduring international popularity than this man. It is said that Haruo Nakajima was Toho’s main guy for the Godzilla suits. He has also gone and wore suits like Rodan, Varan the Unbievable, and yes believe it or not he was also Baragon from the movie Frankenstein Conquers the World came in 1965. Haruo Nakajima also was the actual robot Moguera in the 1957 movie The Mysterians. As you can see the man has done some quite popular suit acting through the years.
With the new movie Kong Skull Island coming out in a couple of days I will mention that he did wear the suit for King Kong in the movie King Kong Escapes which came out in 1967 and he also wore the suit for the green gargantuan Gaira. If that wasn’t enough he has gone on to do start choreography for the company Tsuburaya Productions which was owned by Eiji Tsuburaya was a special effects director for The Toho Motion Picture Company. He did an episode of Ultra Q and because he does the Godzilla suits so well he did the actual suit with the very first episode which had a Godzilla like creature called Gomess.
Haruo Nakajima when he was a child began working at a very early age actually fetching seaweed of the ocean right after school. Now here is a crazy thing when he was 14 years old he actually joined the Japanese Imperial Navy during World War II as a pilot trainee. As soon as the war was over he would go on to be a truck driver at an occupational forces camp before finally enrolling at the International Film Acting School located in Tokyo Japan, and he would do this in 1949. There he would be an instructor was an actual contract player for the Toho Motion Picture Company.
During his stint in the company Mr. Nakajima was in fact assigned as a stunt actor he would go on to do minor pictures and he would have the opportunity to work with major directors Akira Kurosawa who by the way incidentally Ishiro Honda was also an assistant director under this director. You also have the opportunity to work under the direction of Hiroshi Inagaki.

Haruo Nakajima Gojira 1954
How he got started with the whole Godzilla suit acting and he does mention that he does not remember exactly how or why he was picked to play Godzilla. What he does remember one day in 1954 when he was approached by the head of the actors division at the Toho Motion Picture Company, told him about an unusual new project at the studio that he might be “suited” for.
He does in fact remember when he was first assigned to play Godzilla and this is what he had to say “at first I was told there was this new science-fiction film - it was called “Project G” and it was dorm preproduction, since they have not yet revealed the monster’s name yet. I was introduced to Mr. Eiji Tsuburaya who was in charge of the special effects department.
He goes on to say he does have an incredible memory of when he first put on Godzilla suit for the very first time. He says it was the very first suit ever constructed of Godzilla and it was located on Stage 3 of the studio lot itself. I and the other suit actor and a lot of people don’t know there were actually two suit actors for the film “Godzilla King of the Monsters” which came out in 1954 also had a suit actor by the name of Katsumi Tezuka who in fact tried on the suit right in front of Mr. Ishiro Honda, Mr.Tsuburaya, and the producer Tomoyuki Tanaka, as well as other members of the staff.
However they come to realize that the suit in fact was much too heavy and way too stiff. Mr. Haruo Nakajima also put on the suit and the best he could do was walk 10 m, but for Mr. Tezuka he can only walk mere 3 m in the suit. Then he suddenly fell down and the first thought that came to Haruo Nakajima’s mind was “This Is Going to Be Impossible.”
As time progressed Haruo Nakajima skills as a monster man did in fact grow through the years. It was so good at it during most of the films that Eiji Tsuburaya gave him the freehand to actually choreograph the actual monster battles himself.
Haruo Nakajima has mentioned that he has some admirers not only Godzilla fans but Hollywood types as well. Haruo Nakajima says that during the filming of King Kong versus Godzilla which came out in 1962 it was in fact approached by an American producer (this could possibly be John Beck) and invited him back to Hollywood to work for a four-year but ultimately our Nakajima declined the offer. This is something I did not know as well.
Haruo Nakajima did mention to the special effects director Eiji Tsuburaya about the offer that was made to him and he mentions to him that he could not possibly make any Godzilla homes without him. This was a very nice gesture as he is well connected to Mr. Tsuburaya.
Now we come to some questions that was asked all Haruo Nakajima and the first question that obviously was asked to him which of his monster roles was in fact his favorite and he responded with “both the original Godzilla and War of the Gargantuas which came out in 1966. When he played Gaira he said it was a very different monster compared to Godzilla and any of the other creatures that he suited up for. This particular Kaiju is a Fleet-footed humanoid and he also said because of the costume the face in itself was much more expressive however he did succeed in giving the creature a thorough demonic, quality look that was very chilling in nature.

Gigantis the Fire Monste Godzilla Raids Again
It would be every Godzilla fan or Kaiju friends dream to actually put on the suit and tear down those miniatures. Haruo Nakajima is also mention that where the suits does have its problems. They are very thick very little air circulation and the heat from the studio lights very down on them especially in the thick rubber scan you eventually can lose a tremendous amount of weight in these costumes just like he did in 1954. He managed to lose 20 pounds during the production of Godzilla 1954.
Also were in the suits can be quite risky Haruo Nakajima does mention that he does not like to complain about the intense discomfort and injuries that are created while wearing the suits. Does mention that he was hurt one time while filming the movie Varan the Unbelievable he has mentioned that he was inside the suits and a truck that was loaded with explosives did in fact crashed into him and that my friends was his “important spot” was in fact burn from the explosives.
When Eiji Tsuburaya passed away in 1970 Haruo Nakajima lost the will to continue doing Godzilla films. He was in fact persuaded by Teisho Arikawa and Teruyoshi Nakano to keep moving on and he would eventually wear the suit for Gezora the giant squid like Kaiju from the movie “Yog: Monster from Space” this movie came out in 1970. He would also go on to store into more movies that were based on Godzilla and then he would finally retire from the business.
There is also another reason why Haruo Nakajima left the business and pretty much retired and was in fact because of the Japanese movie industry was in fact in terrible condition. The Toho Motion Picture Company had a total of 350 actors under the contract and because of the massive budgetary problems in order to save money here and there and this would be happening around 1972 they in fact released all 350 actors all at once.
Haruo Nakajima what on as he was offered a job to work in the bowling alley he was around 43 years of age when he did this and it wasn’t because of his age. He was physically fit. It was just one of those things that the Toho Motion Picture Company offered him at the time. He does mention that ever since he retired other Godzilla suit actors have fill in his place bought the actual character has never been the same and he knows it.
During the Heisei Series these of the films ever made after Godzilla 1985 even though Godzilla 1985 is part of the Heisei Series it was made during the Showa Series. A new suit actor would step in and do all other Godzilla suit acting from 1984 to 1995 and his name is Kenpachiro Satsuma.
There is an interesting side note that Haruo Nakajima also has a very small parts in some pretty dramatic segments of several monster movies. Was in fact a military officer at the strategy center in the movie “Destroy All Monsters” which came out in 1968? He was also the Prime Minister chauffeur in the movie “Tidal Wave” this is a non-Godzilla movie. It is also rumored that in the movie Godzilla King of Monsters Haruo Nakajima was the power plant worker throws the switch that ineffectively electrocute the monster, but this is incorrect.
Now to end the story of all stories in recent years Haruo Nakajima has helped to further the cause of the Godzilla fandom abroad. In 1996, 1997, and 1998 along with fellow monster suit actor Kenipachiro Satsuma travel to the United States of America to attend Godzilla conventions in Chicago and in New York. As I mentioned earlier. With all that he has done for this fandom he has retained in enthusiasm and a certain amount of pride for the fandom and the monster itself as many friends fall in love with him because of this very aspect.
submitted by BarneyBuckley to kaiju [link] [comments]


2020.09.24 04:03 EliteRacer415 When the night comes and distractions end - ''ah shit, here we go again''

At this point, maybe I should replay San Andreas again. Need to learn how to ride that bicycle again, must have forgotten it since the last time I tried while being a kid.
Welcome to yet another post of mine. If you decide to stay, grab a seat, some snacks, a drink as I think this is going to be one of the longer ones, even when compared to my regular posting fashion.
I'll start off where I left off with the title.
Nights are hard. Even though I can barely motivate myself to do anything during the day, I somehow manage to keep the pain at the minimum, like in a hidden place, locked away. This is obviously thanks to distractions and the fact that I'm not alone and need to be the 'regular' me in order to not make any fuss about it, which would only make it worse. I started learning making music. It's quite nice of a coping mechanism, even if it frustrates me when I make a melody and atop right there, not knowing how to turn it into a song. But it keeps me in check, constant workload for my head. I've accepted that my head will never be quiet, so I wanted to at least be in control of what's spinning in there. In the night I get overrun though, it all comes back with a force. The moment I turn off my PC and know that I'm heading to bed, ''ah shit, here we go again'' crosses my mind. Because I have to fight the pain and the urge to end it once again. Even though I try to keep a positive mindset and to not look for something to blame, I sometimes can't help but wonder, what did I do to deserve this. Obviously we all have some darker secrets, some things that weren't exactly ethical and all. But I always tried to be good whenever I could. Not as much as I try now, but still. I know it might sound naive or like I try to convince someone, but I truly have a kind heart. I'd never turn my back to someone in need. But somewhy I still didn't deserve to be happy. Somewhy I still must endure this punishment. I'd like to at least know what for am I being punished. I'd like to know what did I do wrong to deserve it. Still believing that a person and universe are one, so the only place of finding that answer is myself. I wish I was smarter to be able to find out these things faster. I'd be closer to peace then.
The unknown scares me. Not the life-after-death kind of unknown, but not knowing when or if I'll come through it. I know that people say that you will, that it'll all pass, and I try to keep that mindset too, but reality is that no one knows for sure. Even people who are living their dreams lose the battle against their own head. So there's no guarantee that I'll come through it. And it scares me. I honestly can't trust my own head anymore, as it could decide to kill me whenever it feels like it. It could delete everything that is keeping me from doing it. Fear of physical pain is long gone, so it defeated that already. Happiness is long gone too, so 2-0 already. Ahh, purpose and will to live too, so make that 4-0. The only thing that it didn't get yet is not wanting to hurt people around me. Literally the last resort, nothing else is holding it back. Mentioned endgame in a different context before, now I realise that I truly was talking about this one. It is the endgame now. Final battle. Well, if I win this one, I still have other battles to win, to equal and beat the score, but if I lose this one, it's game over. ''All you had to do was to follow that damn train, CJ.''
My body aches. Heart is hurting. Wrists are hurting, strange tension in them. Veins more visible than usual on my face. Blackness under eyes. Complete lack of energy. Muscles hurting after briefest of physical work. Not eating much. Honestly the only thing that my family noticed is that I'm not eating much. Anything else is just invisible to them. I'm not blaming them, don't get me wrong. I just think it's strange when you can clearly see pain in my face but no one notices it. Or maybe they just choose to ignore it. Or maybe it just became normal to everyone and they think it's just the way I am. No idea. It's kinda strange to start doubting your parent's ability. Always thought of them highly, still am, but somewhy wondering if they could have made some mistakes feels wrong. Nothing wrong with making mistakes, again, I'm not blaming them. But it just feels wrong.
I love falling asleep. Always had trouble to fall asleep, lately even staying asleep, but nothing's better than being asleep. The moment you start dozing off, the calmness flows into you. You know what's coming. And you wait for it. And then it comes. Nothingness. Not being aware of your own existence. It's just the best thing ever. Scientists say that people are unable to not to dream. But I truly don't dream. At first I thought the constant day dreaming is making me unable to separate daydreaming from dreaming, as I'm always on alert, in some kind of trance when sleeping. When I do dream, which happened twice in the past three months, it's like with everyone. Some dreams you remember clear as day, some fade away moments after waking up. But if I dream, I am always aware of it. So falling asleep is a blessing. I'd say it's just pitch blackness, but even pitch blackness is something. And I just shut off. Not even blackness. It's nothingness. Like I just stop existing for the night. And honestly, I think it's part of things that made it bearable. Small doses of what I crave for. It makes me want more, but if I'd have to stay awake at night, being alone, I'd just lose my mind.
To answer the Houston call and come back to Earth, I still have no idea if I'll be able to get help. I truly wasn't expecting that my own country, being the leading one in suicide rates, would take it so unprofessionaly. First attempt at getting help was the suicide hotlines, moments before starting my car, slamming the pedal to the metal and just seeing what happens. I typed in 'suicide' in google and obviously that page popped up. Opened it up, saw numbers and a website. Now the website itself looks old, so I figured I'd click the link to the website of what was supposed to be youth's mental help center or something like that. The link opened up and instead of resources and contacts to try and help suicidal people, I saw a huge add saying that they can refill your printer's ink catridge. Didn't know how to react, started laughing. Still slammed my car's pedal to the metal, proceeding in previously said plan. Braked just in time, just because my family wouldn't have to put their own son to the grave. (Cheeky citation from Crypt's song ''I'm not OK'')
Then I tried to reach out to a psychologist. Checked the prices, understood that I won't be able to afford it. So I reached out to my university psychologist. And by reaching out I mean writing them. And then waiting. And waiting. And more waiting. I had to seek out psychologist's personal Facebook account to reach out to them and actually get a response. Waited for a day more, hoping that this is finally it, I'm finally getting help. But for unknown to me reason, she redirected me to other psychologists. Now, she suggested two, both of them are in different cities than I study in, so that is already more inconvenient. (Please note that I live in a small country, so distances aren't so great, but it's still a struggle to travel when you're a student) But I said fuck it, I can at least try and go there at least once per week. No idea how any of this work, so don't knoe the frequency of visits, so forgive me if me expecting to go there every day is a bit naive. Right, so emailed the one in a closer city and more convenient than the other. Again, no answer. Emailed again. Silence. Got slightly mad, dug out a phone number and called it. The number doesn't exist. I honestly sat there for a few minutes trying to understand how much exactly it is fucked up.
Well and now the last option is in progress. Inconvenient as hell, higher spending on travel. But yeah, it's either getting help or just killing myself, so. Still the same tune though, emailed twice, no answer. Will be using my information gathering 'skills' aka google search and try to reach out via personal Facebook account. Will see what that yields. If that doesn't work either, I am really not sure what to do next. I simply cannot continue living like this. I want to either fix myself or just be done with it. I could always tell my parents, get my family doctor involved, but that's just a shitstorm waiting to happen. Imagine a mix of overdone and mostly fake sympathy and countless 'man ups' along with the questions on how is it possible and blamefests of how I'm not grateful for what I have and how selfish I am and how I should just get over it. I'm barely surviving right now, walking on the edge, so I just cannot let that happen, for the sake of the same people who would only push me towards it.
So yeah I'd put a TL:DR here, but I'm not sure if I'd be able to shorten it even slightly. Apologies if there are any typos, it's 5am here, so I think I should better be trying to get that sweet portion of nothingness instead of going through the text, looking for mistakes.
If you're read through this, I thank you. I hope we both come through it. I hope we both will have enough strength to at least try. If we don't succeed, I hope we'll find that long awaited peace.
Thank you for being.
submitted by EliteRacer415 to depression [link] [comments]


2020.09.23 23:38 ryu289 Figures that neonazis would fit healthcare workers into their conspiracy theories.

https://donotlink.it/q7vyrb
As the reader is aware, the Daily Stormer took a very hard line against healthcare workers during the height of the coronavirus crisis.
At the end of March, the government decreed that the hospitals would be emptied out. That no one would be able to get any elective procedure, or go to a routine doctor’s visit, because they needed to save the space for all of the people who were going to be infected with the coronavirus.
Of course, because the coronavirus is an absolute hoax, and it is just the flu, very few people were going into the hospital at all. It is almost certain that more people died during this period from heart attacks and from various complications related to putting off elective surgeries than will ever die of the coronavirus.
Coronavirus isn’t the flu: https://www.contagionlive.com/news/why-comparing-flu-covid-19-severity-not-equivalent
The #FilmYourHospital hashtag trended as people filmed completely empty hospitals (before the content was banned by Twitter). The media claimed when this was happening that we just needed to wait, because oh boy, those millions and millions of sick are going to need those hospital beds. That never happened. No one ever apologized.
Those ended up being debunked: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yow0fa6_EH8
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/coronavirus-truthers-caught-in-epic-lies-and-distorted-stories-about-hospitals-crisis/
Did any of them go beyond reception?
https://www.rojakpot.com/filmyourhospital-empty-hospitals/
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/coronavirus-truthers-caught-in-epic-lies-and-distorted-stories-about-hospitals-crisis/
No economy is worth more than a life.”
As if collapsing the economy doesn’t kill people. Untold millions of people are going to die when the bottom finally falls out on this. The British government is openly saying that millions of third worlders are going to starve to death, and millions of Westerners are going to die from suicide and drug overdoses.
Citation needed. The economy was in bad shape before this: https://news.bitcoin.com/data-shows-the-us-economy-was-collapsing-5-months-before-the-coronavirus-outbreak/
I also especially hate these smug cunts, who should have been in the hospital gym doing back and shoulder exercises instead of condescendingly playing the boss and rubbing it in people’s faces that they’re not allowed to work because they want to do dance videos
They were doing nothing at work, but still had jobs while no one else was allowed to work, and they felt it was a good idea to go try to shame people who wanted to work.
They were continually being told what heroes they were, which I’m sure made them feel very important. People were posting memes showing them as superheroes fighting this evil virus, when in actuality, as we all saw, the only thing they were fighting was people who wanted to work – in-between their dance practices.
They were dancing to cheer up patients and celebrate recovered victims: https://nurse.org/articles/nurses-viral-tiktok-social-media-covid19-videos/
They weren’t doing it because they not doing anything else.
If these stupid bitches would have used their organization to come out in April and say:
We don’t really think this virus is a big problem. The hospitals are not overwhelmed, in fact, they are absolutely empty. We think the people should be allowed to go back to work.
Sigh: https://www.cbsnews.com/video/hospitals-overwhelmed-as-coronavirus-cases-skyrocket/
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9zGIJRR2XiM
https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/07/09/coronavirus-california-hospital-lah-dnt-ebof-vpx.cnn
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SKsc1LfUI9w
This not good enough?
Then that could have made a big difference! This entire thing could have gone differently if all of the big medical groups would have come out and said it was a hoax. They all knew it was a hoax. They were in empty hospitals, doing dances!
But no.
They loved basking in the glory of being called heroes, and they probably loved the fact that they didn’t have to work. And now, they’re paying the price.
Of course, we’re all doomed. We can only keep printing dollars for so long. Eventually the bottom is going to fall out on our economy and everyone is going to pay the ultimate price.
But there’s no reason we can’t celebrate the downfall of the healthcare scum.
Meanwhile in reality: https://khn.org/news/essential-and-in-danger-coronavirus-sickens-even-kills-public-health-workers/
Healthcare workers are dying due to risking exposure to corona.
And at lower pay too: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.brookings.edu/research/essential-but-undervalued-millions-of-health-care-workers-arent-getting-the-pay-or-respect-they-deserve-in-the-covid-19-pandemic/amp/
Also: https://donotlink.it/nPqnp4
People are still waiting for an explanation for why health care workers, the so called “essential” workers, have time to go out and counter-protest in the middle of what’s supposed to be an extreme crisis “overwhelming the hospitals.”
It must be especially strenuous given that they also have to work on choreographed dance routines every day.
Not every healthcare worker is essential. https://www.reddit.com/DebunkThis/comments/fuuph5/comment/fmew6th?utm_source=amp&utm_medium=&utm_content=comment_timestamp
submitted by ryu289 to skeptic [link] [comments]


2020.09.18 21:25 missuhree APA 7 Citations for COVID research? [PSY: Senior Seminar, undergrad]

Hi all,
I probably sound like a fool doing COVID research as an undergrad but I figured it would be an interesting topic to cover from a psych perspective and look at facets of personality that influence behavior. However, I'm accustomed to using citation machine to cite all of my sources and fixing them up from there-- however, I'm having trouble figuring out how to deduce what each "source" is. For example, the CDC's website for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions...Is that a website, federal report, or?
Also, any other tips you might have for citations and keeping up with research that is relevant to these awful circumstances...it's really taking a toll on my mental health because I would LOVE to take a break for the day, but uh...unfortunately it's all around us and I'm working myself into a frenzy with my perfectionism/ambition/anxiety...Some might say it would've been a good idea to switch topics, but
  1. too late for that and
  2. if I'm going to get into a good grad program I want to have a study that's relevant to the world we're living in.
  3. I'm very frustrated with family members being anti-mask and thinking they can debate me about this **** on facebook, and I want to be able to just drop a pdf and hit them w/ that "I know more about this than you" hubris so they shut the **** up and take this seriously instead of turning it into political discourse...Petty? Yes. Adler would tell u that's bc I'm the youngest and have an inferiority complex but honestly? As a first generation college student I'm really tired of having people with high school diplomas (in my family, no shame to high school grads) tell me what they think they know from Fox News. Ugh.
Please help, ordinarily I would clean this up and make it less disorganized but i don't have anywhere to vent and I'm RAPIDLY losing my sanity by ignoring my professor's email asking if I'm okay and if she can help me...I feel bad but I've been h*lla anxious lately, and I'll respond I just...need a lil time. It was due last night. I've accepted that it's gotta be submitted tonight.
TLDR: HOW DO I FIGURE OUT WHAT SOURCES ARE WHAT...I am only familiar with scholarly articles, journals, and online databases...what does the CDC fall under?
Edit: censored my potty mouth, my bad...let me know if I missed anything
submitted by missuhree to HomeworkHelp [link] [comments]


2020.09.12 21:24 Apples_Are_Red263 A Brief Defence of Traditional Authorship

Addressing Common Counterarguments

There are a number of arguments against traditional authorship of the gospels. Internal evidence against traditional authorship include official anonymity, their fluent Greek, the title convention (The Gospel According to ‘X’), times where the author refers to themselves in the third person, Markan priority challenges Matthean authorship, the claim that Matthew, a publican, would not be familiar with the jewish scriptures and perceived discrepancies between Paul’s own testimony and his depiction in Acts.
The citation of official anonymity needs no further consideration, as it is nothing more than an argument from silence. If the author’s did identify themselves, this would indeed provide evidence in favour of traditional authorship, but they’re failure to do so is not evidence against it. As to their fluent use of Greek, Matthew was originally composed in Aramaic, John Mark was an interpreter, and Greek a major trade language. Especially given his clunky, direct Greek translation containing many Aramaicisms, it isn’t improbable that he composed this gospel. Luke was a gentile physician, and so would have likely spoken Greek as well. The only case where this might apply is John, which we will come back to. The title convention could easily be explained by a theological commitment to there being only one gospel, and this gospel was told according to four separate individuals, namely those whom the gospel bears the name of. It is interesting that many ancient authors referred to themselves in the third person. One such example is Caesar in the Gallic wars, “When it was reported to Caesar that they were attempting to make their route through our Province he hastens to set out from the city, and, by as great marches as he can, proceeds to Further Gaul, and arrives at Geneva.” (Gallic Wars, 1.7), but this is far from the only example. Other include Gallic War 2.1; 3.28; 4.13; 5.9; 6.4; 7.11 and Civil War 1.1, so this claim is entirely baseless. Matthean priority neatly addresses the next concern. A publican would have been Familiar with the jewish law, so the next claim is baseless too, and no such tension exists between how Paul is depicted in Acts and how he depicts himself.
With regards to external evidence, the main argument against the church fathers is not that they were uneducated or lying, but that they were attesting to authorship far too late to be of any use, as legendary development had already set in. It is noteworthy that the fathers - especially Papias - record traditions that are earlier than themselves. We have no trace of any competing tradition, unanimity amongst highly educated scholars of the time and attribution to figures who were not considered authoritative in the slightest, strongly counting against the fathers making it up for reasons of authority.
The question then shifts to the reliability of the oral tradition itself. Late tradition, (and it is asserted the authorship traditions fall into this category) is likely to be legendary and therefore false, while early tradition is likely to be true. Irenaeus heard Polycarp who heard John, and is unlikely to make up authorship for purposes of authority. Thus, it appears he provides us with a direct line of oral tradition leading back to the apostles themselves. Clement of Alexandria and Origen likewise show a similar progression, with Origen being a student of Clement and furthering this tradition. Therefore, it is not implausible that Irenaeus is furthering the tradition of Polycarp who is himself furthering a tradition dating to the apostle’s own lifetime. This would qualify as an early tradition, as, at most, only fifty years has passed between the writing of the gospels and their traditional attribution. We must also consider the content of this tradition. If it is fantastic, then it more likely to represent falsehood, but if it is mundane, it more likely to represent truth. Here, a fantastic tradition would have the gospels written by prominent figures, but as we’ve already established this was surely not the case, and thus where to we find a tradition that is rather mundane, and entirely consistent with the decisive internal evidence.
It is true certain works such as the didache seem to quote Matthew without explicitly stating it, this could be plausibly attributed to the fact that Matthew spent a period of time as the only Gospel in publication. Similarly, it is at times argued that the gospels were published formerly anonymously because Polycarp himself and Ignatius quote regularly from the gospels without citing them. This is another argument from silence. Many Christians even today quote memorized passages and teachings from the gospels without providing a direct citation, and so their failure to do so is not an argument against traditional authorship. Likewise, Justin Martyr quotes from the gospels without naming their authors, but this is a red herring, as we already established that this tradition is likely to be earlier than the early second century anyways. Likewise, Justin Martyr could also have been simply quoting memorized verses without taking care to explicitly cite them. In summary, it appears we are dealing with an earlier oral tradition that arose at the latest around the late first or early second century and most likely much earlier. If the gospels were originally formally anonymous, it makes very little sense for the church fathers to attribute them to the figures they did when these figures were not very prominent in the early church. For example, Mark was an interpreter of Peter, and so it makes very little sense for the fathers to attribute it to Mark when they could attribute it just as easily to Peter himself. Likewise, Matthew was a very unknown disciple mentioned only a few times, and Luke was a disciple of Paul, who wasn’t an eyewitness himself. If these attributions were part of a legendary development which formed in order to cement the gospels in apostolic authority, it makes very little sense that these would the names that would rise to the top of the list in terms of attributions.

Matthean Authorship of the Gospel of Matthew

External Evidence
Papius writes, “Matthew compiled the sayings [logia of Christ] in the Hebrew language and each interpreted them as best he could.” (Papius, 60-130 AD)
While Papius is not regarded as a reliable source, his attribution to Matthean authorship is widely corroborated in Later sources, such as Irenaeus who writes, “Matthew published his Gospel among the Hebrews in their own language, while Peter and Paul were preaching and founding the church in Rome.” (Irenaeus, 180 AD). Irenaeus is also likely knew Polycarp, who knew John, and so he it is plausible he was passing on earlier oral tradition attributing authorship to Matthew. Likewise, Clement of Alexandria writes, “Of all those who had been with the Lord, only Matthew and John left us their recollections, and tradition says they took to writing perforce. Matthew had first preached to the Hebrews, and when he was on the point of going to others he transmitted in writing in his native language the Gospel according to himself, and thus supplied by writing the lack of his own presence to those from whom he was sent.” (Clement of Alexandria, 150-215 AD). Thus, we have attestation by Papias whose account is corroborated by Clement of Alexandria and Irenaeus, both of whom are educated men. It is also noteworthy that Irenaeus knew Polycarp, who was a disciple of John, and this increases plausibility that he was preserving an oral tradition earlier than his own attestation.
Internal Evidence
Matthew identifies himself at the tax booth (Matt. 9:9) under his apostolic name Matthew as opposed to his other name, Levi, which is what Luke and Mark have him named as (Mk. 2:14, Lk: 5:27). This is functionally equivalent to Paul’s use of the name Paul in referring to himself in his letters, but Acts referring to him under the name Saul. Matthew contains numerous financial references, including a number of financial transactions (17:24-27; 18:23-35, 20:1-16, 26:15, 27:3-10, 28:11-15), the Lord’s Prayer saying ‘Debts’ rather than ‘sins’. In Matthew 22:19, he uses the more precise term νόμισμα (state coin), as opposed to Mark and Luke which use only the term δηνάριον (dēnarion). In Mark 2:15 and Luke 5:29 we are told that Matthew made a great feast at his house, but in the equivalent of this parable in Matthew, it says τη οικια (the house) (Matthew 9:10), which is more consistent with a third person version of ‘my house’. Matthew alone records the paying of the temple tax (Matthew 17:24-27) where we find out that a stater is worth four drachma. Matthew’s gospel is also the only gospel to record the parable of the vineyard workers (Matt. 20:1-16), which would strike a cord with a tax collector, but may have been more forgettable to the other apostles. Moreover, a denarius a day was considered a fair wage (Annals 1.17), and so the wage found in the parable is considered a fair one. It is the sole gospel to record the exact payment to Judas (Matt. 26:15) and finally the saying of the Pharisees swearing by the gold in the temple (Matt: 23:16-17). All of these financial references are consistent with the view that a publican composed this gospel as opposed to just anyone, and it is consistent with the view that the apostles Matthew wrote it.

Markan Authorship of the Gospel of Mark

External Evidence
Papias writes, “This also the presbyter said: Mark, having become the interpreter of Peter, wrote down accurately, though not in order, whatsoever he remembered of the things said or done by Christ. For he neither heard the Lord nor followed him, but afterward, as I said, he followed Peter, who adapted his teaching to the needs of his hearers, but with no intention of giving a connected account of the Lord's discourses, so that Mark committed no error while he thus wrote some things as he remembered them. For he was careful of one thing, not to omit any of the things which he had heard, and not to state any of them falsely.” (Papias, 60-130 AD).
This is further corroborated by Irenaeus, who writes “Mark, the disciple and interpreter of Peter, did also hand down to us in writing what had been preached by Peter.”(Irenaeus, 180 AD). And Tertullian writing in Carthage northern Africa affirms “that which Mark published may be affirmed to be Peter's whose interpreter Mark was.” (Tertullian, AD 160-220). Clement of Alexandria agrees, “The Gospel according to Mark had this occasion. As Peter had preached the Word publicly at Rome, and declared the Gospel by the Spirit, many who were present requested that Mark, who had followed him for a long time and remembered his sayings, should write them out. And having composed the Gospel he gave it to those who had requested it.” (Clement of Alexandria, 150-215 AD). Origin writes “The second is by Mark, who composed it according to the instructions of Peter, who in his Catholic epistle acknowledges him as a son, saying, 'The church that is at Babylon elected together with you, salutes you, and so does Marcus, my son.'” (Origin, 185-254). Likewise with Matthew, with Mark it appears the church fathers are preserving an earlier tradition from the early second century at the latest, and it is implausible that this oral tradition would have attributed the gospels to the apostles it did as they were minor apostles compared to pillars of the church such as Peter or James, and even less plausible that the church fathers would have made them up entirely.
Internal Evidence
Philemon 1:24 places Mark in tome where Peter resides as bishop. The church fathers are unanimous that Mark was Peter’s interpreter as we have already established, and his clunky Greek with several Aramaicisms, albeit less than Matthew’s gospel, reflect Mark’s direct Greek translation. As we previously established, many of the apostles such as Paul had both an apostolic name and a common name. For Peter, his common name was Simon. More often than not, Peter is referred to by this common name throughout the other Synoptics, but in Mark he is often referred to as Peter. Simon is mentioned first among the apostles in Mark’s gospel, and his brother Andrew is called ‘the brother of Simon’, which seems odd, but it perfectly explained by Peter saying ‘my brother’ and Mark recording ‘the brother of Simon’. Mark 16:7 states ‘the disciples and Peter’, which provides more emphasis on Peter than the other apostles. Bauckham argues that Mark is attempting to hint at his source via an inclusio by having Peter as the first and last named disciple in his gospel. Matthew and Luke do not use the word ‘orgistheis’ meaning ‘being angry’, which does not suit a man with a skin disease coming to be healed. The original aramaic word would have read ‘regaz’, which often meant be angry, but could mean a wider array of things than just this.

Lukan Authorship of Luke/Acts

External Evidence
Irenaeus writes, “Luke also, the companion of Paul, recorded in a book the Gospel preached by him.” and also regarding Acts he writes, “But that this Luke was inseparable from Paul, and his fellow-labourer in the Gospel, he himself clearly evinces, not as a matter of boasting, but as bound to do so by the truth itself… As Luke was present at all these occurrences, he carefully noted them down in writing…” (Irenaeus, 180 AD). Tertullian writes, “… the evangelical Testament has apostles for its authors, to whom was assigned by the Lord Himself this office of publishing the gospel... therefore, John and Matthew first instil faith into us; while of apostolic men, Luke and Mark renew it afterwards… Now, of the authors whom we possess, Marcion seems to have singled out Luke for his mutilating process.” (Tertullian, AD 220). Finally, Origen affirms, “And the third by Luke, the Gospel commended by Paul, and composed for Gentile converts… Luke, the author of the Gospel and the Acts, wrote it.” (Origen, AD 185-254).
Internal Evidence
Luke is traditionally considered to have been authored by Luke the physician. Luke appears to display medical interest, such as identifying Peter’s moth in law with a high fever (μέγας πυρετός) as opposed to just a fever (πυρέσσω). Luke also appears to specify an advanced stage of leprosy by describing the healed leper as full of leprosy (πληρης λεπρας) rather than just merely a leper. Furthermore, Luke displays use of medical terminology (Lk. 4,38; 5,12; 8,44; Acts 5,5 10; 9,40) and describes illnesses and cures with acute medical terminology that the average person would not be familiar with (Lk. 4,35; 3,11; Acts 3,7; 9,18). In Luke 14:1-4, Luke employs the precise medical term ‘hudropikos’, which is not a term the average person would know, and is recorded in contemporary medical sources, namely the work of renowned Greek physician Hippocrates. To cite another specific example in Acts, Luke accurately describes the man’s exact medical condition, ‘puretois kai dusenterio sunechomenon’ or literally ‘suffering from fever and dysentery’.

Johannine Authorship of the Gospel of John

External Evidence
Irenaeus writes, “… John, the disciple of the Lord, who also had leaned upon His breast, did himself publish a Gospel during his residence at Ephesus in Asia… those who were conversant in Asia with John, the disciple of the Lord, [affirming] that John conveyed to them that information. And he remained among them up to the times of Trajan… Then, again, the Church in Ephesus, founded by Paul, and having John remaining among them permanently until the times of Trajan, is a true witness of the tradition of the apostles.” (Irenaeus, 180 AD). It is noteworthy than Irenaeus, a disciple of Polycarp, would have considered him as the link between Christ and himself. The significance, of course, being that Polycarp was a disciple of John. Tertullian Likewise affirms, “The same authority of the apostolic churches will afford evidence to the other Gospels also, which we possess equally through their means, and according to their usage — I mean the Gospels of John and Matthew…” (Tertullian, 220 AD). Clement of Alexandria agrees, writing “John, perceiving that the external facts had been made plain in the Gospel, being urged by his friends, and inspired by the Spirit, composed a spiritual Gospel.” (Clement of Alexandria, 150-215 AD). Origen writes succinctly, “Last of all that by John.” (Origen, 185-254 AD).
Internal Evidence
John 21:20-24 has the author identity himself as one of the followers of Jesus, and more specifically as ‘the disciple whom Jesus Loved’. This is odd given that nowhere in the gospel of John does is John the son of Zebedee named explicitly, and this is even when less known disciples such as Philip are named, and inspite of the fact the Synoptics frequently name John as well. It seems most plausible that ‘the beloved disciple’ was John’s title he used to describe himself, rather than that of an anonymous author. In addition, the identification of John the Baptist as simply ‘John’ seems to imply that the readers of the gospel of John would identify authorship of the fourth gospel with another name (ie the beloved disciple). Moreover, the gospel contains many small, incidental details that are characteristic of eyewitness testimony, such as The number of water jars at the wedding in Cana (John 2:6), how long the man at the Pool of Bethesda had been crippled (John 5:5), the name of the servant whose ear was chopped off by Peter (John 18:10) and the number of fish the disciples caught at Galilee (John 21:11). The gospel contains many pieces of internal evidence which suggest a jewish, not gentile origin, such as the author identifying the purpose of the water jars at the wedding in Cana (John 2:6), He notes that Jesus was in Jerusalem during the Passover (John 2:23), he mentions that Jesus fed the 5,000 near the Passover (John 6:4), He talks about the Festival of Tabernacles (John 7:2, 37), He specifies that it was the Festival of Dedication, where another writer might simply say “it was winter” (John 10:22) and finally John records that Pilate handed Jesus over to be crucified on the day of Preparation for the Passover (John 19:14, 31). The gospel also uses many aramaic words such as Rabbi, Rabboni, Messias, and Kēphas, and additionally the themes and imagery of light versus darkness and the children of God versus the children of Satan have also been noted in the Dead Sea Scrolls, suggesting a jewish context rather than a Greek one. It is argued John wouldn’t have know greek, but this is not much of an argument since the use of scribes is recorded elsewhere in the New Testament, such as Romans 16:22, “I, Tertius, who wrote this epistle, greet you in the Lord.” (Romans 16:22) and 1 Peter 5:12, “By Silvanus, our faithful brother as I consider him, I have written to you briefly, exhorting and testifying that this is the true grace of God in which you stand.” (I Peter 5:12). This, therefore, seems to cement the plausibility of the use of scribes, and so an argument from language and Greek prose alone does not undermine Johannine authorship. Moreover, the aramaic words, jewish themes and knowledge of Jewish practice suggests a jewish origin.
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2020.09.12 20:16 Apples_Are_Red263 A Brief Defence of Traditional Authorship

Addressing Common Counterarguments

There are a number of arguments against traditional authorship of the gospels. Internal evidence against traditional authorship include official anonymity, their fluent Greek, the title convention (The Gospel According to ‘X’), times where the author refers to themselves in the third person, Markan priority challenges Matthean authorship, the claim that Matthew, a publican, would not be familiar with the jewish scriptures and perceived discrepancies between Paul’s own testimony and his depiction in Acts.
The citation of official anonymity needs no further consideration, as it is nothing more than an argument from silence. If the author’s did identify themselves, this would indeed provide evidence in favour of traditional authorship, but they’re failure to do so is not evidence against it. As to their fluent use of Greek, Matthew was originally composed in Aramaic, John Mark was an interpreter, and Greek a major trade language. Especially given his clunky, direct Greek translation containing many Aramaicisms, it isn’t improbable that he composed this gospel. Luke was a gentile physician, and so would have likely spoken Greek as well. The only case where this might apply is John, which we will come back to. The title convention could easily be explained by a theological commitment to there being only one gospel, and this gospel was told according to four separate individuals, namely those whom the gospel bears the name of. It is interesting that many ancient authors referred to themselves in the third person. One such example is Caesar in the Gallic wars, “When it was reported to Caesar that they were attempting to make their route through our Province he hastens to set out from the city, and, by as great marches as he can, proceeds to Further Gaul, and arrives at Geneva.” (Gallic Wars, 1.7), but this is far from the only example. Other include Gallic War 2.1; 3.28; 4.13; 5.9; 6.4; 7.11 and Civil War 1.1, so this claim is entirely baseless. Matthean priority neatly addresses the next concern. A publican would have been Familiar with the jewish law, so the next claim is baseless too, and no such tension exists between how Paul is depicted in Acts and how he depicts himself.
With regards to external evidence, the main argument against the church fathers is not that they were uneducated or lying, but that they were attesting to authorship far too late to be of any use, as legendary development had already set in. It is noteworthy that the fathers - especially Papias - record traditions that are earlier than themselves. We have no trace of any competing tradition, unanimity amongst highly educated scholars of the time and attribution to figures who were not considered authoritative in the slightest, strongly counting against the fathers making it up for reasons of authority.
The question then shifts to the reliability of the oral tradition itself. Late tradition, (and it is asserted the authorship traditions fall into this category) is likely to be legendary and therefore false, while early tradition is likely to be true. Irenaeus heard Polycarp who heard John, and is unlikely to make up authorship for purposes of authority. Thus, it appears he provides us with a direct line of oral tradition leading back to the apostles themselves. Clement of Alexandria and Origen likewise show a similar progression, with Origen being a student of Clement and furthering this tradition. Therefore, it is not implausible that Irenaeus is furthering the tradition of Polycarp who is himself furthering a tradition dating to the apostle’s own lifetime. This would qualify as an early tradition, as, at most, only fifty years has passed between the writing of the gospels and their traditional attribution. We must also consider the content of this tradition. If it is fantastic, then it more likely to represent falsehood, but if it is mundane, it more likely to represent truth. Here, a fantastic tradition would have the gospels written by prominent figures, but as we’ve already established this was surely not the case, and thus where to we find a tradition that is rather mundane, and entirely consistent with the decisive internal evidence.
It is true certain works such as the didache seem to quote Matthew without explicitly stating it, this could be plausibly attributed to the fact that Matthew spent a period of time as the only Gospel in publication. Similarly, it is at times argued that the gospels were published formerly anonymously because Polycarp himself and Ignatius quote regularly from the gospels without citing them. This is another argument from silence. Many Christians even today quote memorized passages and teachings from the gospels without providing a direct citation, and so their failure to do so is not an argument against traditional authorship. Likewise, Justin Martyr quotes from the gospels without naming their authors, but this is a red herring, as we already established that this tradition is likely to be earlier than the early second century anyways. Likewise, Justin Martyr could also have been simply quoting memorized verses without taking care to explicitly cite them. In summary, it appears we are dealing with an earlier oral tradition that arose at the latest around the late first or early second century and most likely much earlier. If the gospels were originally formally anonymous, it makes very little sense for the church fathers to attribute them to the figures they did when these figures were not very prominent in the early church. For example, Mark was an interpreter of Peter, and so it makes very little sense for the fathers to attribute it to Mark when they could attribute it just as easily to Peter himself. Likewise, Matthew was a very unknown disciple mentioned only a few times, and Luke was a disciple of Paul, who wasn’t an eyewitness himself. If these attributions were part of a legendary development which formed in order to cement the gospels in apostolic authority, it makes very little sense that these would the names that would rise to the top of the list in terms of attributions.

Matthean Authorship of the Gospel of Matthew

External Evidence
Papius writes, “Matthew compiled the sayings [logia of Christ] in the Hebrew language and each interpreted them as best he could.” (Papius, 60-130 AD)
While Papius is not regarded as a reliable source, his attribution to Matthean authorship is widely corroborated in Later sources, such as Irenaeus who writes, “Matthew published his Gospel among the Hebrews in their own language, while Peter and Paul were preaching and founding the church in Rome.” (Irenaeus, 180 AD). Irenaeus is also likely knew Polycarp, who knew John, and so he it is plausible he was passing on earlier oral tradition attributing authorship to Matthew. Likewise, Clement of Alexandria writes, “Of all those who had been with the Lord, only Matthew and John left us their recollections, and tradition says they took to writing perforce. Matthew had first preached to the Hebrews, and when he was on the point of going to others he transmitted in writing in his native language the Gospel according to himself, and thus supplied by writing the lack of his own presence to those from whom he was sent.” (Clement of Alexandria, 150-215 AD). Thus, we have attestation by Papias whose account is corroborated by Clement of Alexandria and Irenaeus, both of whom are educated men. It is also noteworthy that Irenaeus knew Polycarp, who was a disciple of John, and this increases plausibility that he was preserving an oral tradition earlier than his own attestation.
Internal Evidence
Matthew identifies himself at the tax booth (Matt. 9:9) under his apostolic name Matthew as opposed to his other name, Levi, which is what Luke and Mark have him named as (Mk. 2:14, Lk: 5:27). This is functionally equivalent to Paul’s use of the name Paul in referring to himself in his letters, but Acts referring to him under the name Saul. Matthew contains numerous financial references, including a number of financial transactions (17:24-27; 18:23-35, 20:1-16, 26:15, 27:3-10, 28:11-15), the Lord’s Prayer saying ‘Debts’ rather than ‘sins’. In Matthew 22:19, he uses the more precise term νόμισμα (state coin), as opposed to Mark and Luke which use only the term δηνάριον (dēnarion). In Mark 2:15 and Luke 5:29 we are told that Matthew made a great feast at his house, but in the equivalent of this parable in Matthew, it says τη οικια (the house) (Matthew 9:10), which is more consistent with a third person version of ‘my house’. Matthew alone records the paying of the temple tax (Matthew 17:24-27) where we find out that a stater is worth four drachma. Matthew’s gospel is also the only gospel to record the parable of the vineyard workers (Matt. 20:1-16), which would strike a cord with a tax collector, but may have been more forgettable to the other apostles. Moreover, a denarius a day was considered a fair wage (Annals 1.17), and so the wage found in the parable is considered a fair one. It is the sole gospel to record the exact payment to Judas (Matt. 26:15) and finally the saying of the Pharisees swearing by the gold in the temple (Matt: 23:16-17). All of these financial references are consistent with the view that a publican composed this gospel as opposed to just anyone, and it is consistent with the view that the apostles Matthew wrote it.

Markan Authorship of the Gospel of Mark

External Evidence
Papias writes, “This also the presbyter said: Mark, having become the interpreter of Peter, wrote down accurately, though not in order, whatsoever he remembered of the things said or done by Christ. For he neither heard the Lord nor followed him, but afterward, as I said, he followed Peter, who adapted his teaching to the needs of his hearers, but with no intention of giving a connected account of the Lord's discourses, so that Mark committed no error while he thus wrote some things as he remembered them. For he was careful of one thing, not to omit any of the things which he had heard, and not to state any of them falsely.” (Papias, 60-130 AD).
This is further corroborated by Irenaeus, who writes “Mark, the disciple and interpreter of Peter, did also hand down to us in writing what had been preached by Peter.”(Irenaeus, 180 AD). And Tertullian writing in Carthage northern Africa affirms “that which Mark published may be affirmed to be Peter's whose interpreter Mark was.” (Tertullian, AD 160-220). Clement of Alexandria agrees, “The Gospel according to Mark had this occasion. As Peter had preached the Word publicly at Rome, and declared the Gospel by the Spirit, many who were present requested that Mark, who had followed him for a long time and remembered his sayings, should write them out. And having composed the Gospel he gave it to those who had requested it.” (Clement of Alexandria, 150-215 AD). Origin writes “The second is by Mark, who composed it according to the instructions of Peter, who in his Catholic epistle acknowledges him as a son, saying, 'The church that is at Babylon elected together with you, salutes you, and so does Marcus, my son.'” (Origin, 185-254). Likewise with Matthew, with Mark it appears the church fathers are preserving an earlier tradition from the early second century at the latest, and it is implausible that this oral tradition would have attributed the gospels to the apostles it did as they were minor apostles compared to pillars of the church such as Peter or James, and even less plausible that the church fathers would have made them up entirely.
Internal Evidence
Philemon 1:24 places Mark in tome where Peter resides as bishop. The church fathers are unanimous that Mark was Peter’s interpreter as we have already established, and his clunky Greek with several Aramaicisms, albeit less than Matthew’s gospel, reflect Mark’s direct Greek translation. As we previously established, many of the apostles such as Paul had both an apostolic name and a common name. For Peter, his common name was Simon. More often than not, Peter is referred to by this common name throughout the other Synoptics, but in Mark he is often referred to as Peter. Simon is mentioned first among the apostles in Mark’s gospel, and his brother Andrew is called ‘the brother of Simon’, which seems odd, but it perfectly explained by Peter saying ‘my brother’ and Mark recording ‘the brother of Simon’. Mark 16:7 states ‘the disciples and Peter’, which provides more emphasis on Peter than the other apostles. Bauckham argues that Mark is attempting to hint at his source via an inclusio by having Peter as the first and last named disciple in his gospel. Matthew and Luke do not use the word ‘orgistheis’ meaning ‘being angry’, which does not suit a man with a skin disease coming to be healed. The original aramaic word would have read ‘regaz’, which often meant be angry, but could mean a wider array of things than just this.

Lukan Authorship of Luke/Acts

External Evidence
Irenaeus writes, “Luke also, the companion of Paul, recorded in a book the Gospel preached by him.” and also regarding Acts he writes, “But that this Luke was inseparable from Paul, and his fellow-labourer in the Gospel, he himself clearly evinces, not as a matter of boasting, but as bound to do so by the truth itself… As Luke was present at all these occurrences, he carefully noted them down in writing…” (Irenaeus, 180 AD). Tertullian writes, “… the evangelical Testament has apostles for its authors, to whom was assigned by the Lord Himself this office of publishing the gospel... therefore, John and Matthew first instil faith into us; while of apostolic men, Luke and Mark renew it afterwards… Now, of the authors whom we possess, Marcion seems to have singled out Luke for his mutilating process.” (Tertullian, AD 220). Finally, Origen affirms, “And the third by Luke, the Gospel commended by Paul, and composed for Gentile converts… Luke, the author of the Gospel and the Acts, wrote it.” (Origen, AD 185-254).
Internal Evidence
Luke is traditionally considered to have been authored by Luke the physician. Luke appears to display medical interest, such as identifying Peter’s moth in law with a high fever (μέγας πυρετός) as opposed to just a fever (πυρέσσω). Luke also appears to specify an advanced stage of leprosy by describing the healed leper as full of leprosy (πληρης λεπρας) rather than just merely a leper. Furthermore, Luke displays use of medical terminology (Lk. 4,38; 5,12; 8,44; Acts 5,5 10; 9,40) and describes illnesses and cures with acute medical terminology that the average person would not be familiar with (Lk. 4,35; 3,11; Acts 3,7; 9,18). In Luke 14:1-4, Luke employs the precise medical term ‘hudropikos’, which is not a term the average person would know, and is recorded in contemporary medical sources, namely the work of renowned Greek physician Hippocrates. To cite another specific example in Acts, Luke accurately describes the man’s exact medical condition, ‘puretois kai dusenterio sunechomenon’ or literally ‘suffering from fever and dysentery’.

Johannine Authorship of the Gospel of John

External Evidence
Irenaeus writes, “… John, the disciple of the Lord, who also had leaned upon His breast, did himself publish a Gospel during his residence at Ephesus in Asia… those who were conversant in Asia with John, the disciple of the Lord, [affirming] that John conveyed to them that information. And he remained among them up to the times of Trajan… Then, again, the Church in Ephesus, founded by Paul, and having John remaining among them permanently until the times of Trajan, is a true witness of the tradition of the apostles.” (Irenaeus, 180 AD). It is noteworthy than Irenaeus, a disciple of Polycarp, would have considered him as the link between Christ and himself. The significance, of course, being that Polycarp was a disciple of John. Tertullian Likewise affirms, “The same authority of the apostolic churches will afford evidence to the other Gospels also, which we possess equally through their means, and according to their usage — I mean the Gospels of John and Matthew…” (Tertullian, 220 AD). Clement of Alexandria agrees, writing “John, perceiving that the external facts had been made plain in the Gospel, being urged by his friends, and inspired by the Spirit, composed a spiritual Gospel.” (Clement of Alexandria, 150-215 AD). Origen writes succinctly, “Last of all that by John.” (Origen, 185-254 AD).
Internal Evidence
John 21:20-24 has the author identity himself as one of the followers of Jesus, and more specifically as ‘the disciple whom Jesus Loved’. This is odd given that nowhere in the gospel of John does is John the son of Zebedee named explicitly, and this is even when less known disciples such as Philip are named, and inspite of the fact the Synoptics frequently name John as well. It seems most plausible that ‘the beloved disciple’ was John’s title he used to describe himself, rather than that of an anonymous author. In addition, the identification of John the Baptist as simply ‘John’ seems to imply that the readers of the gospel of John would identify authorship of the fourth gospel with another name (ie the beloved disciple). Moreover, the gospel contains many small, incidental details that are characteristic of eyewitness testimony, such as The number of water jars at the wedding in Cana (John 2:6), how long the man at the Pool of Bethesda had been crippled (John 5:5), the name of the servant whose ear was chopped off by Peter (John 18:10) and the number of fish the disciples caught at Galilee (John 21:11). The gospel contains many pieces of internal evidence which suggest a jewish, not gentile origin, such as the author identifying the purpose of the water jars at the wedding in Cana (John 2:6), He notes that Jesus was in Jerusalem during the Passover (John 2:23), he mentions that Jesus fed the 5,000 near the Passover (John 6:4), He talks about the Festival of Tabernacles (John 7:2, 37), He specifies that it was the Festival of Dedication, where another writer might simply say “it was winter” (John 10:22) and finally John records that Pilate handed Jesus over to be crucified on the day of Preparation for the Passover (John 19:14, 31). The gospel also uses many aramaic words such as Rabbi, Rabboni, Messias, and Kēphas, and additionally the themes and imagery of light versus darkness and the children of God versus the children of Satan have also been noted in the Dead Sea Scrolls, suggesting a jewish context rather than a Greek one. It is argued John wouldn’t have know greek, but this is not much of an argument since the use of scribes is recorded elsewhere in the New Testament, such as Romans 16:22, “I, Tertius, who wrote this epistle, greet you in the Lord.” (Romans 16:22) and 1 Peter 5:12, “By Silvanus, our faithful brother as I consider him, I have written to you briefly, exhorting and testifying that this is the true grace of God in which you stand.” (I Peter 5:12). This, therefore, seems to cement the plausibility of the use of scribes, and so an argument from language and Greek prose alone does not undermine Johannine authorship. Moreover, the aramaic words, jewish themes and knowledge of Jewish practice suggests a jewish origin.
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2020.09.12 20:11 ThinkingRationality3 A Brief Defence of Traditional Authorship

Addressing Common Counterarguments

There are a number of arguments against traditional authorship of the gospels. Internal evidence against traditional authorship include official anonymity, their fluent Greek, the title convention (The Gospel According to ‘X’), times where the author refers to themselves in the third person, Markan priority challenges Matthean authorship, the claim that Matthew, a publican, would not be familiar with the jewish scriptures and perceived discrepancies between Paul’s own testimony and his depiction in Acts.
The citation of official anonymity needs no further consideration, as it is nothing more than an argument from silence. If the author’s did identify themselves, this would indeed provide evidence in favour of traditional authorship, but they’re failure to do so is not evidence against it. As to their fluent use of Greek, Matthew was originally composed in Aramaic, John Mark was an interpreter, and Greek a major trade language. Especially given his clunky, direct Greek translation containing many Aramaicisms, it isn’t improbable that he composed this gospel. Luke was a gentile physician, and so would have likely spoken Greek as well. The only case where this might apply is John, which we will come back to. The title convention could easily be explained by a theological commitment to there being only one gospel, and this gospel was told according to four separate individuals, namely those whom the gospel bears the name of. It is interesting that many ancient authors referred to themselves in the third person. One such example is Caesar in the Gallic wars, “When it was reported to Caesar that they were attempting to make their route through our Province he hastens to set out from the city, and, by as great marches as he can, proceeds to Further Gaul, and arrives at Geneva.” (Gallic Wars, 1.7), but this is far from the only example. Other include Gallic War 2.1; 3.28; 4.13; 5.9; 6.4; 7.11 and Civil War 1.1, so this claim is entirely baseless. Matthean priority neatly addresses the next concern. A publican would have been Familiar with the jewish law, so the next claim is baseless too, and no such tension exists between how Paul is depicted in Acts and how he depicts himself.
With regards to external evidence, the main argument against the church fathers is not that they were uneducated or lying, but that they were attesting to authorship far too late to be of any use, as legendary development had already set in. It is noteworthy that the fathers - especially Papias - record traditions that are earlier than themselves. We have no trace of any competing tradition, unanimity amongst highly educated scholars of the time and attribution to figures who were not considered authoritative in the slightest, strongly counting against the fathers making it up for reasons of authority.
The question then shifts to the reliability of the oral tradition itself. Late tradition, (and it is asserted the authorship traditions fall into this category) is likely to be legendary and therefore false, while early tradition is likely to be true. Irenaeus heard Polycarp who heard John, and is unlikely to make up authorship for purposes of authority. Thus, it appears he provides us with a direct line of oral tradition leading back to the apostles themselves. Clement of Alexandria and Origen likewise show a similar progression, with Origen being a student of Clement and furthering this tradition. Therefore, it is not implausible that Irenaeus is furthering the tradition of Polycarp who is himself furthering a tradition dating to the apostle’s own lifetime. This would qualify as an early tradition, as, at most, only fifty years has passed between the writing of the gospels and their traditional attribution. We must also consider the content of this tradition. If it is fantastic, then it more likely to represent falsehood, but if it is mundane, it more likely to represent truth. Here, a fantastic tradition would have the gospels written by prominent figures, but as we’ve already established this was surely not the case, and thus where to we find a tradition that is rather mundane, and entirely consistent with the decisive internal evidence.
It is true certain works such as the didache seem to quote Matthew without explicitly stating it, this could be plausibly attributed to the fact that Matthew spent a period of time as the only Gospel in publication. Similarly, it is at times argued that the gospels were published formerly anonymously because Polycarp himself and Ignatius quote regularly from the gospels without citing them. This is another argument from silence. Many Christians even today quote memorized passages and teachings from the gospels without providing a direct citation, and so their failure to do so is not an argument against traditional authorship. Likewise, Justin Martyr quotes from the gospels without naming their authors, but this is a red herring, as we already established that this tradition is likely to be earlier than the early second century anyways. Likewise, Justin Martyr could also have been simply quoting memorized verses without taking care to explicitly cite them. In summary, it appears we are dealing with an earlier oral tradition that arose at the latest around the late first or early second century and most likely much earlier. If the gospels were originally formally anonymous, it makes very little sense for the church fathers to attribute them to the figures they did when these figures were not very prominent in the early church. For example, Mark was an interpreter of Peter, and so it makes very little sense for the fathers to attribute it to Mark when they could attribute it just as easily to Peter himself. Likewise, Matthew was a very unknown disciple mentioned only a few times, and Luke was a disciple of Paul, who wasn’t an eyewitness himself. If these attributions were part of a legendary development which formed in order to cement the gospels in apostolic authority, it makes very little sense that these would the names that would rise to the top of the list in terms of attributions.

Matthean Authorship of the Gospel of Matthew

External Evidence
Papius writes, “Matthew compiled the sayings [logia of Christ] in the Hebrew language and each interpreted them as best he could.” (Papius, 60-130 AD)
While Papius is not regarded as a reliable source, his attribution to Matthean authorship is widely corroborated in Later sources, such as Irenaeus who writes, “Matthew published his Gospel among the Hebrews in their own language, while Peter and Paul were preaching and founding the church in Rome.” (Irenaeus, 180 AD). Irenaeus is also likely knew Polycarp, who knew John, and so he it is plausible he was passing on earlier oral tradition attributing authorship to Matthew. Likewise, Clement of Alexandria writes, “Of all those who had been with the Lord, only Matthew and John left us their recollections, and tradition says they took to writing perforce. Matthew had first preached to the Hebrews, and when he was on the point of going to others he transmitted in writing in his native language the Gospel according to himself, and thus supplied by writing the lack of his own presence to those from whom he was sent.” (Clement of Alexandria, 150-215 AD). Thus, we have attestation by Papias whose account is corroborated by Clement of Alexandria and Irenaeus, both of whom are educated men. It is also noteworthy that Irenaeus knew Polycarp, who was a disciple of John, and this increases plausibility that he was preserving an oral tradition earlier than his own attestation.
Internal Evidence
Matthew identifies himself at the tax booth (Matt. 9:9) under his apostolic name Matthew as opposed to his other name, Levi, which is what Luke and Mark have him named as (Mk. 2:14, Lk: 5:27). This is functionally equivalent to Paul’s use of the name Paul in referring to himself in his letters, but Acts referring to him under the name Saul. Matthew contains numerous financial references, including a number of financial transactions (17:24-27; 18:23-35, 20:1-16, 26:15, 27:3-10, 28:11-15), the Lord’s Prayer saying ‘Debts’ rather than ‘sins’. In Matthew 22:19, he uses the more precise term νόμισμα (state coin), as opposed to Mark and Luke which use only the term δηνάριον (dēnarion). In Mark 2:15 and Luke 5:29 we are told that Matthew made a great feast at his house, but in the equivalent of this parable in Matthew, it says τη οικια (the house) (Matthew 9:10), which is more consistent with a third person version of ‘my house’. Matthew alone records the paying of the temple tax (Matthew 17:24-27) where we find out that a stater is worth four drachma. Matthew’s gospel is also the only gospel to record the parable of the vineyard workers (Matt. 20:1-16), which would strike a cord with a tax collector, but may have been more forgettable to the other apostles. Moreover, a denarius a day was considered a fair wage (Annals 1.17), and so the wage found in the parable is considered a fair one. It is the sole gospel to record the exact payment to Judas (Matt. 26:15) and finally the saying of the Pharisees swearing by the gold in the temple (Matt: 23:16-17). All of these financial references are consistent with the view that a publican composed this gospel as opposed to just anyone, and it is consistent with the view that the apostles Matthew wrote it.

Markan Authorship of the Gospel of Mark

External Evidence
Papias writes, “This also the presbyter said: Mark, having become the interpreter of Peter, wrote down accurately, though not in order, whatsoever he remembered of the things said or done by Christ. For he neither heard the Lord nor followed him, but afterward, as I said, he followed Peter, who adapted his teaching to the needs of his hearers, but with no intention of giving a connected account of the Lord's discourses, so that Mark committed no error while he thus wrote some things as he remembered them. For he was careful of one thing, not to omit any of the things which he had heard, and not to state any of them falsely.” (Papias, 60-130 AD).
This is further corroborated by Irenaeus, who writes “Mark, the disciple and interpreter of Peter, did also hand down to us in writing what had been preached by Peter.”(Irenaeus, 180 AD). And Tertullian writing in Carthage northern Africa affirms “that which Mark published may be affirmed to be Peter's whose interpreter Mark was.” (Tertullian, AD 160-220). Clement of Alexandria agrees, “The Gospel according to Mark had this occasion. As Peter had preached the Word publicly at Rome, and declared the Gospel by the Spirit, many who were present requested that Mark, who had followed him for a long time and remembered his sayings, should write them out. And having composed the Gospel he gave it to those who had requested it.” (Clement of Alexandria, 150-215 AD). Origin writes “The second is by Mark, who composed it according to the instructions of Peter, who in his Catholic epistle acknowledges him as a son, saying, 'The church that is at Babylon elected together with you, salutes you, and so does Marcus, my son.'” (Origin, 185-254). Likewise with Matthew, with Mark it appears the church fathers are preserving an earlier tradition from the early second century at the latest, and it is implausible that this oral tradition would have attributed the gospels to the apostles it did as they were minor apostles compared to pillars of the church such as Peter or James, and even less plausible that the church fathers would have made them up entirely.
Internal Evidence
Philemon 1:24 places Mark in tome where Peter resides as bishop. The church fathers are unanimous that Mark was Peter’s interpreter as we have already established, and his clunky Greek with several Aramaicisms, albeit less than Matthew’s gospel, reflect Mark’s direct Greek translation. As we previously established, many of the apostles such as Paul had both an apostolic name and a common name. For Peter, his common name was Simon. More often than not, Peter is referred to by this common name throughout the other Synoptics, but in Mark he is often referred to as Peter. Simon is mentioned first among the apostles in Mark’s gospel, and his brother Andrew is called ‘the brother of Simon’, which seems odd, but it perfectly explained by Peter saying ‘my brother’ and Mark recording ‘the brother of Simon’. Mark 16:7 states ‘the disciples and Peter’, which provides more emphasis on Peter than the other apostles. Bauckham argues that Mark is attempting to hint at his source via an inclusio by having Peter as the first and last named disciple in his gospel. Matthew and Luke do not use the word ‘orgistheis’ meaning ‘being angry’, which does not suit a man with a skin disease coming to be healed. The original aramaic word would have read ‘regaz’, which often meant be angry, but could mean a wider array of things than just this.

Lukan Authorship of Luke/Acts

External Evidence
Irenaeus writes, “Luke also, the companion of Paul, recorded in a book the Gospel preached by him.” and also regarding Acts he writes, “But that this Luke was inseparable from Paul, and his fellow-labourer in the Gospel, he himself clearly evinces, not as a matter of boasting, but as bound to do so by the truth itself… As Luke was present at all these occurrences, he carefully noted them down in writing…” (Irenaeus, 180 AD). Tertullian writes, “… the evangelical Testament has apostles for its authors, to whom was assigned by the Lord Himself this office of publishing the gospel... therefore, John and Matthew first instil faith into us; while of apostolic men, Luke and Mark renew it afterwards… Now, of the authors whom we possess, Marcion seems to have singled out Luke for his mutilating process.” (Tertullian, AD 220). Finally, Origen affirms, “And the third by Luke, the Gospel commended by Paul, and composed for Gentile converts… Luke, the author of the Gospel and the Acts, wrote it.” (Origen, AD 185-254).
Internal Evidence
Luke is traditionally considered to have been authored by Luke the physician. Luke appears to display medical interest, such as identifying Peter’s moth in law with a high fever (μέγας πυρετός) as opposed to just a fever (πυρέσσω). Luke also appears to specify an advanced stage of leprosy by describing the healed leper as full of leprosy (πληρης λεπρας) rather than just merely a leper. Furthermore, Luke displays use of medical terminology (Lk. 4,38; 5,12; 8,44; Acts 5,5 10; 9,40) and describes illnesses and cures with acute medical terminology that the average person would not be familiar with (Lk. 4,35; 3,11; Acts 3,7; 9,18). In Luke 14:1-4, Luke employs the precise medical term ‘hudropikos’, which is not a term the average person would know, and is recorded in contemporary medical sources, namely the work of renowned Greek physician Hippocrates. To cite another specific example in Acts, Luke accurately describes the man’s exact medical condition, ‘puretois kai dusenterio sunechomenon’ or literally ‘suffering from fever and dysentery’.

Johannine Authorship of the Gospel of John

External Evidence
Irenaeus writes, “… John, the disciple of the Lord, who also had leaned upon His breast, did himself publish a Gospel during his residence at Ephesus in Asia… those who were conversant in Asia with John, the disciple of the Lord, [affirming] that John conveyed to them that information. And he remained among them up to the times of Trajan… Then, again, the Church in Ephesus, founded by Paul, and having John remaining among them permanently until the times of Trajan, is a true witness of the tradition of the apostles.” (Irenaeus, 180 AD). It is noteworthy than Irenaeus, a disciple of Polycarp, would have considered him as the link between Christ and himself. The significance, of course, being that Polycarp was a disciple of John. Tertullian Likewise affirms, “The same authority of the apostolic churches will afford evidence to the other Gospels also, which we possess equally through their means, and according to their usage — I mean the Gospels of John and Matthew…” (Tertullian, 220 AD). Clement of Alexandria agrees, writing “John, perceiving that the external facts had been made plain in the Gospel, being urged by his friends, and inspired by the Spirit, composed a spiritual Gospel.” (Clement of Alexandria, 150-215 AD). Origen writes succinctly, “Last of all that by John.” (Origen, 185-254 AD).
Internal Evidence
John 21:20-24 has the author identity himself as one of the followers of Jesus, and more specifically as ‘the disciple whom Jesus Loved’. This is odd given that nowhere in the gospel of John does is John the son of Zebedee named explicitly, and this is even when less known disciples such as Philip are named, and inspite of the fact the Synoptics frequently name John as well. It seems most plausible that ‘the beloved disciple’ was John’s title he used to describe himself, rather than that of an anonymous author. In addition, the identification of John the Baptist as simply ‘John’ seems to imply that the readers of the gospel of John would identify authorship of the fourth gospel with another name (ie the beloved disciple). Moreover, the gospel contains many small, incidental details that are characteristic of eyewitness testimony, such as The number of water jars at the wedding in Cana (John 2:6), how long the man at the Pool of Bethesda had been crippled (John 5:5), the name of the servant whose ear was chopped off by Peter (John 18:10) and the number of fish the disciples caught at Galilee (John 21:11). The gospel contains many pieces of internal evidence which suggest a jewish, not gentile origin, such as the author identifying the purpose of the water jars at the wedding in Cana (John 2:6), He notes that Jesus was in Jerusalem during the Passover (John 2:23), he mentions that Jesus fed the 5,000 near the Passover (John 6:4), He talks about the Festival of Tabernacles (John 7:2, 37), He specifies that it was the Festival of Dedication, where another writer might simply say “it was winter” (John 10:22) and finally John records that Pilate handed Jesus over to be crucified on the day of Preparation for the Passover (John 19:14, 31). The gospel also uses many aramaic words such as Rabbi, Rabboni, Messias, and Kēphas, and additionally the themes and imagery of light versus darkness and the children of God versus the children of Satan have also been noted in the Dead Sea Scrolls, suggesting a jewish context rather than a Greek one. It is argued John wouldn’t have know greek, but this is not much of an argument since the use of scribes is recorded elsewhere in the New Testament, such as Romans 16:22, “I, Tertius, who wrote this epistle, greet you in the Lord.” (Romans 16:22) and 1 Peter 5:12, “By Silvanus, our faithful brother as I consider him, I have written to you briefly, exhorting and testifying that this is the true grace of God in which you stand.” (I Peter 5:12). This, therefore, seems to cement the plausibility of the use of scribes, and so an argument from language and Greek prose alone does not undermine Johannine authorship. Moreover, the aramaic words, jewish themes and knowledge of Jewish practice suggests a jewish origin.
submitted by ThinkingRationality3 to u/ThinkingRationality3 [link] [comments]


2020.09.12 19:56 PGHNerd Senior Isolation - The Silent Killer

I wrote this for ConnectedForYou and was published on June 18, 2019. Given everything occurring globally right now in regards to COVID-19 this article I feel has become more important than ever.
Social isolation can have devastating effects physically, mentally, and emotionally for older adults, a correlation that often goes unrecognized and can, potentially, result in death. Studies have shown that loneliness can increase the risk of death for older adults by 26 percent,[1] and this is true whether the individual says they feel lonely or not.
Nearly one-third of older adults, ages 65+ living outside a nursing home or hospital, live alone; with the likelihood of living alone increasing as they age.[2] While isolation may not be the cause of death, it is always a risk factor1 and 43% of adults over the age of 65 living alone report feeling lonely on a regular basis.[3] Isolation can reduce access to needed resources, contribute to the misutilization of healthcare services, and is associated with an increased risk for life-threatening health conditions such as falls, re-hospitalization, and even dementia.[4,5]
Loneliness can be a greater risk to the senior’s health than smoking, sedentary lifestyle, poor nutrition, and obesity.[6]
Senior isolation exists at many levels including individual, family, community, and societal, which can make it difficult to recognize and address. It results from living far away from family and friends, the loss of a spouse or sibling, cognitive decline, impairment in mobility and senses, and/or changes to socioeconomic and health status.[7] As seniors age, their inner circles become smaller due to friends and family moving or passing away, their ability to continue to participate in hobbies declines due to impairment in mobility and function. Further, living far away from family can make regular communication difficult.[4]
The impact of these changes can be physical, mental, and emotional; isolated seniors have a 59 percent greater risk of mental and physical decline.[8] A decline in the ability to perform activities of daily living, of course, accelerates the need for in-home assistance and support, or a move to assisted living. It is extremely important, then, to recognize and address isolation, whether through face-to-face interaction, regular phone calls, apps like Facetime, talking with neighbors and friends, or specialized programs focused on this very issue.
To identify senior isolation, consider the following:
Reports of loneliness A recent death of a loved one or close friend or a move away from or by close friends Accelerated hearing or vision loss or onset of other physical disability Recent inability to drive Decreased desire to socialize or engage in activities or conversations previously of interest Observed or self-reported changes in health status including weight, appetite, sleep, and cognition To understand senior isolation, consider the following:
Actively listen to your loved one and clarify your understanding of what they are telling you. At the same time, be observant of subtle changes in their behavior, likes and dislikes, and their physical and emotional health. Not all loneliness is permanent nor a significant problem; it can come and go or be mild; it makes sense to keep this in mind. Work with the senior your concerned about to develop a plan of action to reduce isolation in a way that is meaningful and engaging to them. Loneliness is often the feeling of no longer being valued; it’s important that suggesting new activities be linked to something that brings a sense of value rather than just doing something because it’s something to do. To diminish the effects of senior isolation, older adults may want to consider the following:
Address any physical issues that may be keeping the senior from socializing such as incontinence, hearing and vision tests, and proving or arranging for transportation. Encourage: Volunteering through programs such as tutoring children, helping at a daycare, interacting with the animals at the local shelter, or participating in more religious community activities. These are all great ways to reduce isolation and increase self-worth. Joining a club or organization, what hobby does the senior love? Is there a local group in the area they could meet with? This could be an opportunity to rediscover a passion. Using technology such as Amazon’s Alexa, Google Home, or Apple’s Facetime. Face-to-face conversations are much more personal than a regular phone call or letter. These technologies are also very easy to use and can be voice activated for those with vision or arthritis difficulties. Talking about events in their life that others (grandchildren, community groups) would find interesting (military service, career, hobbies, and such). Most importantly, it is the thought that counts. Small gestures such as a card, quick phone call, or stopping in for a hello can make a big difference. It doesn’t take an entire slate of activities to reduce isolation, it only takes recognition and a thoughtful approach. Isolation and loneliness can kill. They can have a snowballing impact on an older adults’ health. However, by taking time to understand what is going on in their life, listen to what they have to say, and utilize resources valuable to both yourself and them, you can combat social isolation and enhance the quality of life so that aging can take place with dignity and some of the known challenges, and worst outcomes, can be avoided.
Citations:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/social-isolation-may-shorten-the-lives-of-seniors/ https://www.ioaging.org/aging-in-america https://www.agingcare.com/articles/loneliness-in-the-elderly-151549.html https://www.medicareadvantage.com/senior-isolation https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22766606 https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2017/01/18/loneliness-might-be-a-bigger-health-risk-than-smoking-or-obesity/#56cd8b5025d1 https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/aarp_foundation/2012_PDFs/AARP-Foundation-Isolation-Framework-Report.pdf https://www.agingcare.com/articles/loneliness-in-the-elderly-151549.htm
submitted by PGHNerd to mentalhealth [link] [comments]


2020.09.12 16:57 DLWhoHurtHisBalls TrueAnon Library

I'm sure we are all familiar with the semi-weekly threads looking for recommendations of books on "X" TrueAnon-related topic. I decided go scrounging through all of the past threads to compile a list of non-fiction titles that have been explicitly referenced on the show or have been recommended by users of this subreddit. My hope is that we can direct newly interested people to this list to help guide them in their research. I've broken the list into sections based on subject and listed books in the section relevant to their primary subject. Basically half the books on this list touch on the CIA somehow but it would not be particularly useful to list them all under that heading. I've done my best to categorize books based on the title, description, and the thread in which the book was recommended but I'm sure I've made mistakes. Please let me know if you think a book should be re-categorized or needs different subjects. This list is far from complete and I would love to expand it further. I am planning to go back through the podcast starting from the first episode in order to ensure we don't miss any recommended/referenced titles but if you know of a title that I've missed or the episode in which a title is referenced, let me know. Most importantly, let me know if I have included a title that is demonstrably false or contains significant amounts of disinformation; I haven't been able to read every single title so I also have not been able to vet every title. Do not let me know if you think I should remove a title from the list because the author subscribes to a particular political tendency that you disagree with.
Remember to always read critically and double check sources, ESPECIALLY for information you find compelling or convincing!
Citation Format:
Nazis, prewar and postwar / "The Spider Network" / Fascist Internationale
GLADIO / The Years of Lead / Post-war Italy
9/11
The Kennedy Assassinations
US Elites / American Crime
The CIA
The FBI
American Empire / US Intelligence Services (non-specific)
Finance / Economics / Money Networks
Political Theory / Critique
General Histories
Silicon Valley / Technology / Cyber Warfare
The Occult / Magick
UFOs
Healthcare / Medical History
Fiction (recommended on the podcast)
Misc
Right Wing / Reactionary Thought
CAVEAT: The inclusion of these titles on this list should not, in any way, be construed as an endorsement of their content or ideas. Rather, they have been included with the premise that it is important to understand, or at least be able to recognize, right wing and reactionary ideas in order to better combat them.
Some important advice from the comment where many of these titles were suggested:
"It helps to understand what the right believes and how they got there, but definitely be cautious with their books. Have someone to talk about it with so you can avoid getting sucked in."
I am sure that any user on this subreddit would be more than happy to talk with you about why the authors listed below are full of shit and/or complete psychos.
Left Reaction
submitted by DLWhoHurtHisBalls to TrueAnon [link] [comments]


2020.09.11 15:24 unbrokenplatypus A Platypus's Guide to Sleep: A bunch of things that may help you [x-post from r/sleep]

Caveat that I'm just a layman who has struggled with sleep onset insomnia (getting to sleep), sleep maintenance insomnia (staying asleep), and sleep quality (feeling tired after 8+ hours rest) issues for decades. I've tried a lot of things, and my goal is just to give back what I've found to the world. None of this is going to come with citations from double-blind placebo controlled studies, but I have generally researched my sleep issues using reputable, scientific sources. I fully realize that most/all of these items have been addressed piecemeal elsewhere, but I felt that a consolidated list like this would've helped me years ago when I began my journey of addressing this issue.
Sleep is an absolutely critical component of physical and mental health, and I very much hope that some of these points help even one or two struggling Redditors out there. I also hope that it can spark helpful conversations on healthy sleep, and we can all learn from each other.
I have placed my "bunch of things" in my own subjective order of Most Likely to be Relevant -> Least Likely to be Relevant:
1) Are you exercising regularly? Being physically tired at the end of the day is a great way to ensure good sleep. Soldiers on marching exercises don't really have insomnia issues at the end of their day.
2) Do you have a snoring and/or sleep apnea problem? Do you wake up with a horribly dry mouth? If you snore, especially aggressively and with long held-breath pauses in the middle, this can be a sign that your breathing is impacting your sleep. This is doubly true if your sleep is not refreshing. You may have sleep apnea, and should get a sleep study done; in countries with socialized medicine this shouldn't be an issue, though I understand in the USA this can be quite expensive. There are apparently home test kits too. Getting a CPAP machine to address your apnea is pretty important to your overall health, as long-term untreated apnea (essentially stopping breathing dozens of times a night) is terrible for your body's core systems. There are also tons of people (unfortunately I wasn't one), who after days or weeks of CPAP treatment report absolutely life-changing effects on how restful sleep is for them. For me, I found the combination of a chinstrap and a CPAP to improve my sleep quality quite significantly, totally worth the minor discomfort of getting used to those two accessories.
3) Do you sleep beside someone else? For me at least, the combination of noise, temperature, and movement that sleeping beside someone generates is just too much for me to almost ever achieve restful sleeps. It can be hard, but you have to ask yourselves whether you want a partner who is beside you in bed but dead tired every day, or a partner who is in an alternate sleep spot but feels better every single morning. If separate beds feels too much, I cannot stress enough how vast an improvement a King-size bed is over any alternative. You might think whatever Procrustean accommodation you have is big enough -- trust me you'll be way more comfortable going larger, it's worth the investment.
4) Are you sure you're cool enough in bed? Your body needs to drop its temperature for sleep, and is going to be fighting an uphill battle if the external temp or humidity is high. Blast that AC or fan if you can, it's worth the extra $15/month in power bills or whatever. This also relates to the point about sleeping with a partner.
5) Are you sure it's dark enough in bed? Do NOT keep the TV on while you sleep. Don't leave the blinds open. Don't leave random lights. You want your bedroom to be primally cavelike in its appearance (though maybe not it's cleanliness), mimicking our ancient, artificial light-free ecosystem. If this isn't possible, just use a sleep mask, they're soft and comfortable!
6) Are you sure it's quiet enough in bed? If not, address this issue by yelling at your annoying roommates, getting foam earplugs, and/or investing in a good white noise machine for your bedside. I had one at a hotel once and was very surprised by how much it drowned out the obnoxious sounds of the other hotel guests and staff around my room.
7) Are you sure you ate enough for dinner and your bedtime snack? This is a tricky one, because neither a massive dinnertime nor an overly light one is going to have a positive impact here. An early dinner followed by a bedtime snack has proven the best bet for me. The important point is to get good, healthy, fairly neutral (i.e. not spicy, acidic, super sugary etc.) food in your belly that will slow burn energy to your body overnight. Think maybe some nuts (walnuts apparently have chemicals with a knock-on benefit for sleep, but I've not noticed much) or an avocado smoothie. If your blood sugar drops precipitously because your body has no good, fatty, protein-filled fuel overnight, your brain is going to suggest you wake up and deal with that. This is not helpful for long, restful sleep. I'd love to hear feedback from nutritionists, doctors, and others on this point!
8) Have you ever tried a weighted blanket? Because seriously you can get them at your local late-stage capitalist Mart and they feel super reassuring to have draped over you during sleep. It's like being tucked into a well-made, snug bed, while being cuddled from every direction. Even if it doesn't improve your sleep (for me it did, to the extent of making a permanent difference to my number of sleep apnea events experienced each hour), it just feels cozy af.
9) Do you do things other than sex and sleep in bed? Don't. Especially your laptop, smartphone, etc., as it will totally confuse your brain and body about what bed is for: the goal is for your brain to know that bed is a safe, quiet, dark space for falling quickly into restful sleep.
10) Do you ingest much caffeine or alchohol? I gave myself both worse insomnia issues and a horribly acidic stomach by constantly drinking tons of decaf green tea. Decaf does not mean caffeine-free, whereas most herbal teas (chamomile or whatever) are indeed caffeine-free. Tea may also to release its caffeine in a more steady curve than coffee, which while helpful for avoiding huge spikes or arousal and lethargy, can be problematic for sleep even hours after your cup of tea. Anyway that's my experience and little bit of research. Certainly my own body seems very sensitive to caffeine and especially alchohol, either of which will completely demolish any hope of a restful sleep. Sorry guys, I know it's not fun or cool, but nixxing both may have a significant impact on your sleep quality!
11) Do you sleep at irregular hours? Going to sleep at notably different hours every night can make it hard for your brain to adapt to a healthy sleep schedule and figure out when it should be in a restful state. Picking a time and sticking within 30 minutes of it can be a good route, and you can support this by taking melatonin supplements short-term to help your body adjust to that timing.
12) Have you tried medication? And here I mean either melatonin, doctor-prescribed pharmaceuticals, or over-the-counters like Benedryl (diphenhydramine). Every herbal or supplement product I've tried has either done nothing or produced side effects that were more annoying than my initial sleep problem. By contrast, I have found melatonin and especially diphenhydramine are very helpful to promote both initial sleepiness and a long, restful sleep. There's some controversy about the former, but the latter seems widely accepted to be okay for long-term use, so long as you don't take it daily (which would be pointless anyway because your body would habituate and it would stop having its sedative effect).
13) Do you use bright electronics before bed? My understanding is that the research on the actual impact of this is mixed, but it's probably good to avoid the blue, sun-mimicking light of electronic devices for 30-90 minutes before bed. I think what's even worse than the light itself is the unsettled mindstate it produces, as we constantly click and "Like" and text for our next hit of feelgood brain chemicals.
14) Do you have children or pets that disturb you? Maybe figure something out about that, even if they are cute or whatever. Perhaps counterintuitively, safe co-sleeping with your children (even just in the same room) can promote better sleep for everyone, as they don't become wide fucking awake when they slightly rouse from their sleep, then crying for you from down the hallway, and they're able to self-soothe much better in the warm, safe, reassuring presence of their parents. And no they will not be 16 and still sleeping in your bedroom, they will naturally gravitate towards their own space as their brains mature and their desire for privacy grows. I admit this one is controversial and will work differently for everyone, but it's definitely an option that no one should feel is wrong or taboo: exactly no one (especially your mother-in-law) has a right to judge your decisions to protect your mental health, of which sleep is a major component. Literature about the "dangers" of cosleeping generally revolves around unsafe practices such as cosleeping on couches, cosleeping while alchohol/drugs are in play, and so on.
15) Are you waking up to pee frequently? This can be a symptom of other health issues (e.g. prostate), or just you're drinking too much liquid late in the day. While one pee a night is totally normal for adults, if it's more than that you may want to investigate this issue. Look up "nocturia", the medical term for excessive nighttime urination, for more information.
16) Do you need new bedding? Even old, rickety mattresses can be seriously shored-up by a thick foam mattress topper you can get for like $50. Better still if you can afford it, invest in a good quality mattress that you find super comfortable -- it might be expensive but it is literally an investment in your long-term health! Also find pillows that you like, and try sleeping with an additional pillow (maybe even a large body-pillow) between your knees: this is supportive for your spine and I've found it useful.
17) Do you have sex (with yourself or others) shortly before bed? While orgasms produce chemicals, especially in women, that promote sleepiness in the short-term, my experience is that sex is overall an activity that promotes wakefulness in the mid-term afterward. Your mileage may vary, and since a healthy sex life is an important pillar of mental health, it's probably worth the tradeoff if the only sexytimes you can get are in the evening!
18) Have you tried meditation? There are hundreds of free YouTube videos and apps that offer mindfulness or yoga nidra meditations, both of which I've found invaluable for settling down for sleep. Especially if the day has been unpleasant or hectic, these meditations can help your brain switch gears from a state of reactive hyperarousal into a settled state of observing the quiet, comfortable space of your bedroom. Progressive relaxation techniques are especially helpful, such as meditations where they successively call out individual parts of your body for you to relax: "now relax your jaw" can be a surprisingly helpful thing to hear.
19) Do you clean your bedroom much? This might be a bit of a stretch, but I've subjectively noticed that an orderly, uncluttered space around my bed seems to coincide with a bit better sleep. This is low down the list because it seems unlikely to make any quantitative difference, but I do find it helps.
submitted by unbrokenplatypus to SleepApnea [link] [comments]


2020.09.11 15:23 unbrokenplatypus A Platypus's Guide to Healthy Sleep: A bunch of things that might help you

Caveat that I'm just a layman who has struggled with sleep onset insomnia (getting to sleep), sleep maintenance insomnia (staying asleep), and sleep quality (feeling tired after 8+ hours rest) issues for decades. I've tried a lot of things, and my goal is just to give back what I've found to the world. None of this is going to come with citations from double-blind placebo controlled studies, but I have generally researched my sleep issues using reputable, scientific sources. I fully realize that most/all of these items have been addressed piecemeal elsewhere, but I felt that a consolidated list like this would've helped me years ago when I began my journey of addressing this issue.
Sleep is an absolutely critical component of physical and mental health, and I very much hope that some of these points help even one or two struggling Redditors out there. I also hope that it can spark helpful conversations on healthy sleep, and we can all learn from each other.
I have placed my "bunch of things" in my own subjective order of Most Likely to be Relevant -> Least Likely to be Relevant:
1) Are you exercising regularly? Being physically tired at the end of the day is a great way to ensure good sleep. Soldiers on marching exercises don't really have insomnia issues at the end of their day.
2) Do you have a snoring and/or sleep apnea problem? Do you wake up with a horribly dry mouth? If you snore, especially aggressively and with long held-breath pauses in the middle, this can be a sign that your breathing is impacting your sleep. This is doubly true if your sleep is not refreshing. You may have sleep apnea, and should get a sleep study done; in countries with socialized medicine this shouldn't be an issue, though I understand in the USA this can be quite expensive. There are apparently home test kits too. Getting a CPAP machine to address your apnea is pretty important to your overall health, as long-term untreated apnea (essentially stopping breathing dozens of times a night) is terrible for your body's core systems. There are also tons of people (unfortunately I wasn't one), who after days or weeks of CPAP treatment report absolutely life-changing effects on how restful sleep is for them. For me, I found the combination of a chinstrap and a CPAP to improve my sleep quality quite significantly, totally worth the minor discomfort of getting used to those two accessories.
3) Do you sleep beside someone else? For me at least, the combination of noise, temperature, and movement that sleeping beside someone generates is just too much for me to almost ever achieve restful sleeps. It can be hard, but you have to ask yourselves whether you want a partner who is beside you in bed but dead tired every day, or a partner who is in an alternate sleep spot but feels better every single morning. If separate beds feels too much, I cannot stress enough how vast an improvement a King-size bed is over any alternative. You might think whatever Procrustean accommodation you have is big enough -- trust me you'll be way more comfortable going larger, it's worth the investment.
4) Are you sure you're cool enough in bed? Your body needs to drop its temperature for sleep, and is going to be fighting an uphill battle if the external temp or humidity is high. Blast that AC or fan if you can, it's worth the extra $15/month in power bills or whatever. This also relates to the point about sleeping with a partner.
5) Are you sure it's dark enough in bed? Do NOT keep the TV on while you sleep. Don't leave the blinds open. Don't leave random lights. You want your bedroom to be primally cavelike in its appearance (though maybe not it's cleanliness), mimicking our ancient, artificial light-free ecosystem. If this isn't possible, just use a sleep mask, they're soft and comfortable!
6) Are you sure it's quiet enough in bed? If not, address this issue by yelling at your annoying roommates, getting foam earplugs, and/or investing in a good white noise machine for your bedside. I had one at a hotel once and was very surprised by how much it drowned out the obnoxious sounds of the other hotel guests and staff around my room.
7) Are you sure you ate enough for dinner and your bedtime snack? This is a tricky one, because neither a massive dinnertime nor an overly light one is going to have a positive impact here. An early dinner followed by a bedtime snack has proven the best bet for me. The important point is to get good, healthy, fairly neutral (i.e. not spicy, acidic, super sugary etc.) food in your belly that will slow burn energy to your body overnight. Think maybe some nuts (walnuts apparently have chemicals with a knock-on benefit for sleep, but I've not noticed much) or an avocado smoothie. If your blood sugar drops precipitously because your body has no good, fatty, protein-filled fuel overnight, your brain is going to suggest you wake up and deal with that. This is not helpful for long, restful sleep. I'd love to hear feedback from nutritionists, doctors, and others on this point!
8) Have you ever tried a weighted blanket? Because seriously you can get them at your local late-stage capitalist Mart and they feel super reassuring to have draped over you during sleep. It's like being tucked into a well-made, snug bed, while being cuddled from every direction. Even if it doesn't improve your sleep (for me it did, to the extent of making a permanent difference to my number of sleep apnea events experienced each hour), it just feels cozy af.
9) Do you do things other than sex and sleep in bed? Don't. Especially your laptop, smartphone, etc., as it will totally confuse your brain and body about what bed is for: the goal is for your brain to know that bed is a safe, quiet, dark space for falling quickly into restful sleep.
10) Do you ingest much caffeine or alchohol? I gave myself both worse insomnia issues and a horribly acidic stomach by constantly drinking tons of decaf green tea. Decaf does not mean caffeine-free, whereas most herbal teas (chamomile or whatever) are indeed caffeine-free. Tea may also to release its caffeine in a more steady curve than coffee, which while helpful for avoiding huge spikes or arousal and lethargy, can be problematic for sleep even hours after your cup of tea. Anyway that's my experience and little bit of research. Certainly my own body seems very sensitive to caffeine and especially alchohol, either of which will completely demolish any hope of a restful sleep. Sorry guys, I know it's not fun or cool, but nixxing both may have a significant impact on your sleep quality!
11) Do you sleep at irregular hours? Going to sleep at notably different hours every night can make it hard for your brain to adapt to a healthy sleep schedule and figure out when it should be in a restful state. Picking a time and sticking within 30 minutes of it can be a good route, and you can support this by taking melatonin supplements short-term to help your body adjust to that timing.
12) Have you tried medication? And here I mean either melatonin, doctor-prescribed pharmaceuticals, or over-the-counters like Benedryl (diphenhydramine). Every herbal or supplement product I've tried has either done nothing or produced side effects that were more annoying than my initial sleep problem. By contrast, I have found melatonin and especially diphenhydramine are very helpful to promote both initial sleepiness and a long, restful sleep. There's some controversy about the former, but the latter seems widely accepted to be okay for long-term use, so long as you don't take it daily (which would be pointless anyway because your body would habituate and it would stop having its sedative effect).
13) Do you use bright electronics before bed? My understanding is that the research on the actual impact of this is mixed, but it's probably good to avoid the blue, sun-mimicking light of electronic devices for 30-90 minutes before bed. I think what's even worse than the light itself is the unsettled mindstate it produces, as we constantly click and "Like" and text for our next hit of feelgood brain chemicals.
14) Do you have children or pets that disturb you? Maybe figure something out about that, even if they are cute or whatever. Perhaps counterintuitively, safe co-sleeping with your children (even just in the same room) can promote better sleep for everyone, as they don't become wide fucking awake when they slightly rouse from their sleep, then crying for you from down the hallway, and they're able to self-soothe much better in the warm, safe, reassuring presence of their parents. And no they will not be 16 and still sleeping in your bedroom, they will naturally gravitate towards their own space as their brains mature and their desire for privacy grows. I admit this one is controversial and will work differently for everyone, but it's definitely an option that no one should feel is wrong or taboo: exactly no one (especially your mother-in-law) has a right to judge your decisions to protect your mental health, of which sleep is a major component. Literature about the "dangers" of cosleeping generally revolves around unsafe practices such as cosleeping on couches, cosleeping while alchohol/drugs are in play, and so on.
15) Are you waking up to pee frequently? This can be a symptom of other health issues (e.g. prostate), or just you're drinking too much liquid late in the day. While one pee a night is totally normal for adults, if it's more than that you may want to investigate this issue. Look up "nocturia", the medical term for excessive nighttime urination, for more information.
16) Do you need new bedding? Even old, rickety mattresses can be seriously shored-up by a thick foam mattress topper you can get for like $50. Better still if you can afford it, invest in a good quality mattress that you find super comfortable -- it might be expensive but it is literally an investment in your long-term health! Also find pillows that you like, and try sleeping with an additional pillow (maybe even a large body-pillow) between your knees: this is supportive for your spine and I've found it useful.
17) Do you have sex (with yourself or others) shortly before bed? While orgasms produce chemicals, especially in women, that promote sleepiness in the short-term, my experience is that sex is overall an activity that promotes wakefulness in the mid-term afterward. Your mileage may vary, and since a healthy sex life is an important pillar of mental health, it's probably worth the tradeoff if the only sexytimes you can get are in the evening!
18) Have you tried meditation? There are hundreds of free YouTube videos and apps that offer mindfulness or yoga nidra meditations, both of which I've found invaluable for settling down for sleep. Especially if the day has been unpleasant or hectic, these meditations can help your brain switch gears from a state of reactive hyperarousal into a settled state of observing the quiet, comfortable space of your bedroom. Progressive relaxation techniques are especially helpful, such as meditations where they successively call out individual parts of your body for you to relax: "now relax your jaw" can be a surprisingly helpful thing to hear.
19) Do you clean your bedroom much? This might be a bit of a stretch, but I've subjectively noticed that an orderly, uncluttered space around my bed seems to coincide with a bit better sleep. This is low down the list because it seems unlikely to make any quantitative difference, but I do find it helps.
EDIT: 20) Have you tried cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (CBTI)? This is perhaps the only non-pharma treatment for insomnia with a very strong track record in scientific literature. I found that it helped me to positively change my relationship with sleep, understand sleep better, and (for about three months) totally eliminate my sleep onset insomnia. But again, no silver bullet in my experience. The downsides are it works for everyone differently, the quality of your psychologist may vary, and it can be expensive. There seem to be some online programs that give you all the contents of CBTI at a fraction of the cost of a psychologist’s hourly rate.
submitted by unbrokenplatypus to sleep [link] [comments]


2020.09.10 19:44 LibertyLockedIn I put together the tertiary effects of the Pandemic, and compiled the numbers into a measure of total human grief. The effects are staggering when compared to the totals the media pushes.

Introduction 2020 has been nothing short of a monumental year for the entirety of mankind. There is little doubt and little reason to try and cite this point, as it is well regarded that the world has not been unified in such a painful existence since the economic downturn of the 70’s following the decades of proxy wars around the world. Though it can be said that the recession of 2008 can be described as another low point, there were significant other factors that the world was able to look forward to as a great and heady boon to humanity. The advent and promulgation of cell phones and the internet, the election of a minority to the head office of the United States, the supposed rising of democracy in China. Coupled with all this, most of the problems in the world were focused solely in the Middle East and Africa. This does not excuse the misery that these regions find themselves in consistently throughout their histories. It is only to say that this is their status quo, and as such a comparative analysis of them against their situation during this pandemic would be disingenuous and is not the thesis of this paper. This paper focuses wholly on the Western world, as it is the Western world that has felt the Covid pandemic most acutely, namely the United States, Spain, France, the UK and Italy. The intent of this research is not to dismiss the COVID pandemic, as all studies point to a level of viciousness in how it has attacked our populations, to leave no doubt as to the need for many of the actions that have been taken in order to curb the spread or ‘Flatten the Curve’ as it were. Yet, as the curves have flattened we still find ourselves torn on whether these measures were effective or necessary. It is at this point that the author feels leadership has failed. The only discussion that is being allowed is that of saving lives; but there is no discussion about the exponential effects of such mass humanity wide lock-downs. In the United States for example, as of this writing there are 165,000 Covid-19 Deaths. In other words, .05 percent of the population has perished as a direct result of this pandemic. Assuming the average age of death of a citizen of the United States is 78 and the average age of a Covid death is above 65, we can count those ten years of each victim as ten years of lost life (misery). That is an unimaginable 1.65 million years of collective human loss and suffering due directly to this pandemic. Many in academic and medical circles deem that this statistic is too high and needs to be corrected, but again, the purpose of this paper is to explore the true misery. There are a remaining 334 million Americans, who are not being accounted for in this measure of misery. If we assume, and while this is an assumption, but a valid and obvious one, that each of these individuals has had one miserable weekend due to the response of our governments to Covid-19, that is 334 million bad weekends. To compare that to the suffering brought on by these deaths, this is a collective 1.8 million years of human misery. That alone outweighs the immediate misery of those who have been victim to the pandemic. While death is more finite than a general feeling of depression or misery, it is not and apples to oranges comparison. There is a cost benefit continuum upon which these factors are balanced which must be accounted for when decisions such as this shut down are made. This study posits that the total human life lost is by comparison a much lower total human loss than the tertiary effects of the shut downs, and that the exponentiality of the individual miseries suffering across the western world need to be considered when making the scientific and fact based decisions of whether or not normalcy needs to be returned to the guts of what life is.
As this is a paper written by someone who is not of the media sphere, or of any specific political apparatus. It is only fair that my stake in this be known. I am thirty years old and do not suffer from any pre-existing conditions and as such am not at risk of serious conditions in relation to the pandemic. As well I have not been unemployed throughout this pandemic, and have been in a Work From Home situation for the last six months. I have lost no one close to me, nor known or met anyone who has. My parents are in their late sixties and as such are vulnerable, as well as one of my siblings who is handicapped. My fiance has a Step-father who has been fighting cancer for some time, and is at risk. I have one remaining maternal grandparent who I have not been able to visit since this all began, something that has affected my mother deeply. This paper is meant as an outlet for those others who have felt the misery of not seeing family, of not visiting friends. The misery of watching business shutter and families fall apart. It is a warning against future overreactions when little data is available, and continued overreaction in the name of producing a result designated to ‘save lives’ while thrashing others. Why is life an all or none measurement in this case, why is there no consideration for the quality of life being lived for all others. If we are to be a successful and modern humanity, we must understand that there can be no true sacrifice without considering the effects of that sacrifice, or even the true need of it. I am not currently an academic who completes research on a regular basis, but I did go through the paces to receive a Masters, and as such understand the importance of citation and hypothesis. This paper is meant to be an illumination of how data can be both ignored and weaponized at the same time. It is not meant as a castigation of one ideal over another, or one data set against another. It is simply put, a reorganization of the conversation to move away from the absolutes of ‘preventing deaths’ or ‘saving lives’ and understanding the continuum on which life is lived. 
Misery has three definitions as described by Merriam-Webster. A state of suffering and want that is the result of poverty or affliction
A circumstance, thing, or place that causes suffering or discomfort A state of great unhappiness and emotional distress Any one of these three definitions fulfills the reasoning behind the need for this study. As the data is gathered, it will be these definitions that guide the measures. Economic loss will not be measured in dollars and cents, but as unemployment and business closures, as this paper's focus is that of the personal human experience as opposed to the greater economic impacts of the pandemic, though that picture will be clearer through the analysis of other factors.
As well, all data will be normalized into years as was done in the introductory section. The methodology for this will be discussed in each section as needed. Further, this study will not be looking into the conditions, gender or race informing the deaths of Covid-19 victims, as that is irrelevant to personal effects of both those who are suffering, and those affected by the passing of those with Covid. Finally, this study will focus on the United States as it has the largest numbers of deaths and infections as well as significant and reliable tracking of most statistics related to everyday life, which will be the basis of the determination of misery.
Covid-19 Statistics In order to maintain intellectual and statistical honesty, Covid-19 statistics will be broken down by age categories. Only death will be utilized to measure the misery count, as the effects of infections on an individual can range from asymptomatic to a bad flu. All data for this paper in regards to Covid-19 deaths will be derived from the CDC and State Departments of Health. The age brackets will be arrayed in decade increments of 1-4, 5-14, 15-24, etc. This is the standard by which the CDC is measuring and will be followed here. Further, grief due to the loss of a loved one lasts anywhere from a few months to four years. For those who have passed and were younger than 65, we will apply the maximum of 4 years of grief per family member. According to the census bureau, the average american family in 2019 has 3.14 members, therefore for all deaths under 65, an extra 8 years will be added for immediate family. Upon this we will add another 8 years per death for those under sixty-five to account for acquaintances and more removed family members. A further 4 years will be added for any additional hardship caused outside of the immediate grief of the passing. This is a total of 20 years of misery added per death for those under 65. This will be reduced to 5 years for those over 65, as death is an accepted fact for those over retirement age, leading to a more accepted and prepared understanding of emotional distress and grief. The average life expectancy of 78 will be utilized to calculate years lost. For those in the 75-84 bracket, the total life lost will be considered 10 years, and for those in the 84+ bracket the total life lost will be considered 5 year as both of these age groups are well past the average life expectancy but should not be discounted. Total deaths will be included to provide context to the extent of Covid’s effects on the general death rate. As well as a comparison to the 2018 total death rates. Key Average Age - Death Age = Years of life lost by victim Under 65 tertiary grief: Years of grief suffered by family = 20 Over 65 tertiary grief: Years of grief suffered by family = 5 Total Deaths: Amount of recorded deaths in this age group during this time (includes Covid deaths) Covid Deaths: Amount of recorded deaths in this age group during this time attributed to Covid-19 Immediate Loss: The years of life lost against the average life expectancy. I.e. a 17 year old dying from Covid means 60 years of immediate life were lost. Tertiary Loss: The years of grief felt by those surrounding the lost life. 20 years for those under 65, 5 years for those over 65. Total Misery: The combined sum of misery years felt in immediate and tertiary losses.
Age 0-1 Total Deaths: 9145 Covid Deaths: 16 Immediate Loss: 1,232 Tertiary Loss: 320 Total Misery: 1,552
Age 1-4 Total Deaths: 1,751 Covid Deaths: 10 Immediate Loss: 800 Tertiary Loss: 200 Total Misery: 1,000
Age 5-14 Total Deaths: 2,714 Covid Deaths: 23 Immediate Loss: 1,610 Tertiary Loss: 460 Total Misery: 2,070
Age 15-24 Total Deaths: 17,078 Covid Deaths: 242 Immediate Loss: 14,520 Tertiary Loss: 4,840 Total Misery: 19,360
Age 25-34 Total Deaths: 35,454 Covid Deaths: 1,133 Immediate Loss: 56,650 Tertiary Loss: 22,660 Total Misery: 79,310
Age 35-44 Total Deaths: 50,206 Covid Deaths: 2,920 Immediate Loss: 116,800 Tertiary Loss: 58,400 Total Misery: 175,200
Age 45-54 Total Deaths: 93,269 Covid Deaths: 7,720 Immediate Loss: 231,600 Tertiary Loss: 154,400 Total Misery: 386,000
Age 55-64 Total Deaths: 214,892 Covid Deaths: 18,579 Immediate Loss: 371,580 Tertiary Loss: 371,580 Total Misery: 743,160
Age 65-74 Total Deaths: 326,062 Covid Deaths: 31,487 Immediate Loss: 314,870 Tertiary Loss: 157,435 Total Misery: 472,305
Age 75-84 Total Deaths: 400,195 Covid Deaths: 39,347 Immediate Loss: 393,470 Tertiary Loss: 196,735 Total Misery: 590,205
Age 85+ Total Deaths: 501,536 Covid Deaths: 47,709 Immediate Loss: 238,545 Tertiary Loss: 238,545 Total Misery: 477,090
Overall Totals Total Deaths: 1,652,302 Covid Deaths: 149,186 Immediate Loss: 1,741,677 Tertiary Loss: 1,205,575 Total Misery: 2,947,252
Analysis By these calculations, the age group of 55-64 is suffering the most misery during this time (Fig. 1). This is due to multiple factors, the greatest of which being that at this age, most people still have a significant amount of life to look forward to while also beginning to show the vulnerability of age against Covid. Also, this is the oldest group to maintain the tertiary multipliers of family and friends having to experience their unexpected passing. This is also an increasingly vulnerable population in that they are still a working population, and as such are showing a higher rate of infection. The older age groups are the next most grief stricken age groups due to their high rates of infection and death. The impact of misery on these age groups is somewhat minimized by the fact that they are already reaching the life expectancy high water mark. This is in line with what the CDC and other experts have suggested is the vulnerable population. This shows that they should be cared for and treated most specifically to ensure that this misery does not continue within their age groups, or that their tertiary misery does not spread to other groups.
Comparative Analysis Misery is not something that is only here due to Covid-19. Death is a significant and persistent threat in the United States due to countless factors ranging from heart disease to car accidents. In the 7 months since Covid-19 has begun ravaging the nation, there have been 1.65 million total deaths, which is within the normal expectation of the time period on a given year. Around 9% of all deaths in this time period are directly related to Covid-19. Comparatively, Covid misery only accounts for 1.7% of all the misery caused by death in the United States (fig. 2). This is due to the fact that COVID does not increase the death counts of those in younger age groups, therefore the grief multipliers are not triggered in the same fashion as they do in the Covid death measures. Also, as more than 20% of all Covid deaths are for those 65-75 and nearly 60% of all deaths are those 75 and older, their is far less grief and surprise for these passing, as many of these already maintained pre-existing conditions which put them at risk for any form of illness. Finally, it is important to compare the level of Covid Deaths to that of total deaths in the United States during the same time period. (fig. 3). This is an important distinction to note, as it exemplifies the fact that the direct misery and deaths caused by Covid itself do not in themselves represent a significant increase in the death and or misery that would have been felt in this nation had no action been taken. Considering the fact that Covid has a negligible impact on those under 65, the presence of the disease itself has little to no impact on the general misery caused by death in the United States. As well, the statistics show that there has been no increase in the general death rates of any of these age groups (old or young) due to the break out of this pandemic.
The Congregated Misery of a Lock Down The above analysis shows that misery based on death already inordinately affects those 65 and older. The introduction of Covid as a disease has not affected those numbers in any real fashion. The significant increase in misery of tertiary effects of the Covid lockdowns have produced the most significant increase in the misery and grief of those in the ‘Zoomer’ and ‘Millennial’ generations as explained below. These generations are already well known as having significant monetary and social anxiety issues in a manner which has not been seen in previous generations. These are people under the age of thirty five that have now been through two significant recessions in their short life spans, people that do not have the backing of decades of gainful employment allowing them to maintain a standard of living through an event such as this. As well, these generations require a more robust social network than previous generations. Yet, these are not factors that can easily be measured for the kind of grief they can bring to an individual. As such, this study will be focusing on four key factors to compare the level of misery to that of a normal year. The factors will be: Suicide Depression/ Stir Crazy Drug and Alcohol Use Unemployment/Lost Savings There are myriad other effects that could be measured to pinpoint the misery that these and other generations are feeling. Things such as postponed weddings, missed funerals, cancelled trips and events. These are not being considered as it would be disingenuous to compare such inconveniences to the loss of a loved one. As a note, suicide is the only death related measure being used here due to the sheer tragedy of it and how critically it affects those around it. The reduced rate of deaths due to vehicular accidents and other accidents is not being measured here as that is baked into the general death statistics as stated above.
Suicide In 2019, suicide was on an uptick compared to the previous year, leading to a total of nearly 70,000 deaths by suicide. Already this year, that number has increased by an incredible 11.4% in the same time period. This increase of 11.4% accounts for an increase of nearly 8,000 deaths of young people. The measuring of this statistic this year so far has only been in relation to drug overdoses. In the same age group of 15-44, Covid has killed around 4,400. The lock-downs have led to more deaths by overdose in that age group than the virus itself has killed. In order to measure the levels of misery caused by this increase in suicide, this study will work directly with the numbers of suicide that are currently counted (the suicide numbers outside of drug overdoses are not released until the following year). The median affected group of overdose suicides are 25-34 year olds to capture these 8,000 cases will be placed into that category. The grief multiplier will be increased to 25 from the 20 stated earlier in order to account for the increased tragedy that a suicide has on those closest to the victim. As can be seen by the numbers listed below, the 11% increase in suicide due to the lockdowns has led to a major driver of human misery in the US. This has created an increase of 560,000 years of misery directly attributable to the lock-downs.
Suicide Deaths Covid Deaths: 8,000 Immediate Loss: 400,000 Tertiary Loss: 160,000 Total Misery: 560,000
Depression due to cabin fever “In his famous book on suicide, Durkheim27 emphasized that social connectedness is a critical factor in emotional health and social stability. The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing as well as other research investigations demonstrated that social isolation and loneliness are associated with major depression and generalized anxiety disorder.28,29 Studies have shown that both objective social isolation (e.g. living alone) and subjective sense of being alone are associated with suicidal ideation and behavior.29 These observations are consistent across diverse cultures and populations. For example, the Quebec Health Survey showed that living alone and having no friends were associated with both suicidal ideation and suicide attempts.30 Social disengagement played a role in the increased suicide rate during the 2003 SARS epidemic in Hong Kong.5 One-third of SARS-related suicide victims experienced social isolation during the SARS outbreak. From a suicide prevention perspective, it is troubling that the most important public health approach for the COVID-19 epidemic is social distancing.” The Kaiser Family Foundation has found that a 1,000% percent increase in monthly calls and texts to their mental health hotline since February compared to the same time last year. The hotline had been receiving around 1,790 calls during this time last year, only to see a rise to 20,000 a month this year. Though this will not be utilized to measure direct non-opioid suicides as the data are not available for these, but as a reference it does align with an expected increase in ‘3,235 to 8,164 excess suicides in the United State’ as projected from the University of Toronto In order to measure the level of misery this may cause, this study will consider that each of these calls is representative of a total of three months of misery, due to the trailing effect of the lock downs, and the unending nature of their effects on the mental stability of an individual. 6 months into the pandemic this represents 360,000 months of misery due to domestic abuse, thoughts of suicide, drug or alcohol overdose, or a general feeling of unease and depression. This is an estimation that on the low end, the amount of depression caused by the lock downs has created a total of 120,000 combined years of human misery. This also does not account for depression carried in silence.
Depression Total Calls: 8,000 Immediate and total loss: 120,000
Drug and Alcohol Consumption Nielsen reports that alcohol sales are up in stores 54% and online by 354%. This is coupled with a morning consult poll showing that one in four people under the age of 40 have increased their alcohol consumption during this same period. When coupling this with a study from the CDC which shows that excessive alcohol use is responsible for 93,000 deaths and 2.7 million years of life lost every year in the US a year it becomes evident that the increase is not one to be taken lightly. If the numbers hold it can be expected that there will be an increase of between 16% and 54% of alcohol related deaths. An average expectation would be that an order of nearly 25,000 more americans will die this year than is the norm due to alcohol consumption in relation to the Covid Lock-downs. These 25,000 deaths will be measured with an average category of the 35-44 year old range as it is not only a millennial problem.
Alcohol Deaths Covid Deaths: 25,000 Immediate Loss: 1,000,000 Tertiary Loss: 500,000 Total Misery: 1,500,000
Economic Misery There are two significant variables which go hand in hand when determining the economic effects of Covid-19 lockdowns. These are total unemployment numbers and the rate at which business have gone out of business. “To explore, we surveyed more than 5,800 small businesses that are members of Alignable, a network of 4.6 million small businesses out of 30.7 million in the US. The survey was conducted between March 28 and April 4, 2020. The timing of the survey allows us to understand expectations of business owners at a critical point in time when both the progression of COVID-19 and the government’s response were quite uncertain. Our results also highlight the financial fragility of many businesses. The median firm with monthly expenses over $10,000 had only enough cash on hand to last roughly 2 wk. Three-quarters of respondents only had enough cash on hand to last 2 mo or less. Not surprisingly, firms with more cash on hand were more optimistic that they would remain open by the end of the year. The crisis duration plays a central role in the total potential impact. For a crisis lasting 4 mo instead of 1 mo, only 47% of businesses expected to be open in December compared to 72% under the shorter duration. There is also considerable heterogeneity in how sensitive businesses are to the crisis. In-person industries like personal services or retail reported worse prospects for riding out the pandemic than professional services or other sectors with minimal need for face-to-face contact. Across the sample, 41.3% of businesses reported that they were temporarily closed because of COVID-19. A far smaller number—1.8%—reported that they were permanently closed because of the pandemic. By contrast, only 1.3% reported that they were temporarily closed for other reasons; 55.5% reported that they were still operational. Small businesses employ almost 50% of American workers.” In order to determine the levels of misery caused by business closures, we will assume that the losses incurred during this time are offset to a degree by the CARES Act. The businesses that are open are operating at functional levels, though they are not operating at the profit margins seen pre-covid. Therefore business misery will be measured as follows. Most businesses only operate on a two weeks cash on hand basis, so it will be considered 4 months of misery per shutdown with the assumption that there are an average 2 people who own the businesses. Businesses that expect a 6 month shutdown will be counted as 9 months of misery as the CARES act runs out of funds and the uncertainty of reopening becomes greater the longer their business is shuttered. Businesses that have shut totally will be considered two years of grief for both owner operators as these small businesses represent the life savings of many of those involved, and the fracturing of a dream that must now be rebuilt, if it all.
Small Business Closures Permanent Closures: 4,420,800 3-Month Closure: 4,359,400 6-Month Closure: 9,210,000 Total Misery: 17,990,167
It is when we start getting into the exponential numbers such as these that we start to see the true effects of what a lockdown can do to the mental state of a nation. The backbone of the United States economy is regarded as being small business, and it is in this measure that we can truly see how this pandemic has begun to erode at the soul of the nation. While I believe the point is made here fully, the unemployment that this pandemic has carried is the most devastating if not short-lived measure of misery. As the unemployment numbers have fluctuated so drastically from the start of the pandemic to now (aug 2020) the measures will be tamped down in representation of that shift. To ensure that the business closure numbers are not counted doubly so in the unemployment numbers, the closures of small businesses did not include the affects on the amount of employees these businesses had, and only represented as affecting only the business owners. The employees which were affected will be subsumed into the unemployment numbers as determined by the bureau of labor statistics. Also, the unemployment numbers will not include the total business numbers as the owners may have also filed for unemployment and should not be double counted. Again, as was done in the depression and suicide statistics, these numbers will be represented by the change against the norm as opposed to the total numbers. At the outbreak of the pandemic, America was at 35% unemployment with around 6.2 million unemployed citizens. This number increased to 20.5 Million by may of 2020 resulting in an increase of around 14 million unemployed persons. The unemployment numbers in August began fall below 10% again, meaning 10 million of those unemployed were only in that state for 3 months, during which they received aid from the CARES act. We can safely assume their savings were maintained and their stress was temporary and due to the uncertainty of the coming months and extensions of the benefits. So of the 14 million unemployed, we will assume 9 million only suffered an average 1 month of stressors. Of the remaining 5 million who remain unemployed 4 million have not received any further CARES act benefits as they ran out and as such are likely dipping into their savings. These will be assigned 4 months as the reopening increases in rate and speed their stressors will diminish drastically. A remaining 1 million will be assigned a full year of uncertainty as the economy shuffles into a post-covid environment, and they struggle to find their place in it.
Unemployment Total: 14,000,000 Short Term: 9,000,000 Medium Term: 4,000,000 Long Term: 1,000,000 Total Misery: 3,083,333
Analysis The unemployment statistics alone overshadow the 2.9 million years of combined human misery created by the COVID deaths. All other factors included, the total tertiary misery caused by the lockdowns is a staggering 23.1 million years. While these numbers are derived from real world studies they relate only to a small percentage of the total effects of the lock-downs. Though it does represent an important difference from the Covid misery numbers. It can just as easily be said that some effects directly related to Covid are missed, such as the possible increase in deaths without lockdowns. Yet, the reality here is that there is an exponential effect upon human experience that this virus is unlikely to outweigh. The combined human misery of the tertiary effects is mostly lived experience, whereas the combined death toll of COVID is pure loss, with no silver lining to represent it. It is therefore necessary to compare this year's death rates to those of previous to understand the effects COVID has had on death in the United States, and better understand if the closures have had an overall effect on the misery caused by death, particularly by age group.
2020 v 2018 The latest data available on U.S. total deaths by age group is from 2018. This data is representative of a full year, so it must be broken down to match the 7 months period since Covid-19 has entered the United States. (CDC) As such each age group is being adjusted by a factor of .58 to represent the same time period from 2018. As well, there has been an upward trend of 1.5-1.7% increase in deaths yearly since 2010; this factor has been applied to show the adjusted numbers to more accurately represent the expected death rates from 2018 to 2020. The numbers listed below by age group represent the total death stats for each group during the same time period of each year as well as the projected 2020 deaths based on 2018 numbers.
Age 0-1 Total 2020 Deaths: 9,145 Total 2018 Deaths: 12,880 Projected 2020 Deaths: 13,267
Age 1-4 Total 2020 Deaths: 1,751 Total 2018 Deaths: 2,298 Projected 2020 Deaths: 2,367
Age 5-14 Total 2020 Deaths: 2,714 Total 2018 Deaths: 3,270 Projected 2020 Deaths: 3,368
Age 15-24 Total 2020 Deaths: 17,078 Total 2018 Deaths: 18,092 Projected 2020 Deaths:18,635
Age 25-34 Total 2020 Deaths: 35,454 Total 2018 Deaths: 35,306 Projected 2020 Deaths: 36,366
Age 35-44 Total 2020 Deaths: 50,206 Total 2018 Deaths: 48,228 Projected 2020 Deaths:49,675
Age 45-54 Total 2020 Deaths: 93,269 Total 2018 Deaths: 98,902 Projected 2020 Deaths:101,869
Age 55-64 Total 2020 Deaths: 214,892 Total 2018 Deaths: 224,902 Projected 2020 Deaths: 231,649 Age 65-74 Total 2020 Deaths: 326,062 Total 2018 Deaths: 326,267 Projected 2020 Deaths: 336,055
Age 75-84 Total 2020 Deaths: 400,195 Total 2018 Deaths: 405,123 Projected 2020 Deaths: 417,277
Age 85+ Total 2020 Deaths: 501,536 Total 2018 Deaths: 528,168 Projected 2020 Deaths: 544,013
Totals Total 2020 Deaths: 1,652,302 Total 2018 Deaths: 1,703,437 Projected 2020 Deaths: 1,754,540
Analysis As we can see the data shows that COVID has had somewhat of an inverse effect on the death rates in the United States. Though we have more people dying from this novel disease, and even more dying from tertiary misery effects, we are seeing a general decrease in deaths across most age groups. There can be myriad reasons for this, but likely the most effective being less travelling on roads, automobile accidents being one of the largest killers of Americans year over year.
Critiques A foreseeable critique of this study is that the reason deaths from COVID are so relatively low compared to the rest of the issues presented in this study is because the lock-down was maintained in the aggressive fashion that it was. While this seems a valid critique, there is little evidence to show that the lock-downs produced the desired effects. A comparative analysis of those countries which did not lock down against those which did shows similar infection rates regardless of action taken and in only the most edge cases did hospitals reach near capacity.
Conclusion It is this study’s finding that the lock-down’s indeed had the desired effect of saving human lives against Covid-19, but that these lives saved do not outweigh the tertiary effects of shutting down the entirety of the nation. It was certainly an overreaction when measured against the combined human misery and stress created against the death and the misery which came loaded with that. Particularly, the populations most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic are still in the margin of error for deaths year over year, meaning that it is likely these people would have died regardless of the pandemic making its way through their populations. This study concludes that in future pandemics, it may behoove us to lock down in very temporary fashion until it is better understood how virulent a disease might be, but that these lock downs should be targeted at the most unhealthy populations, and should only be enacted in those populations that have the most vulnerability. Further, the mental health and gestalt mindset of a society must be taken into account when making such sweeping suggestions. The amount of riots and discontent sweeping the western world cannot be wholly removed from the effects of the lock downs. 2020 will be seen as a generational trauma, something that is impossible to measure here. This study does not take into account the amount of young lives that did not get to experience their proms or graduations. Or their final seasons of their favorite sports. It does not take into account the inability for families to gather for weddings or funerals or the destruction of plans that may have affected countless young minds and formed them into future scholars or artists. The general disregard for young experiences and the exponential effects of lock-downs on mass populations cannot be overlooked in a future situation such as this. In all era’s of history, the old have sacrificed for the young, to ensure they live to their fullest potential; and it is a step back to sacrifice the experience of the young, in the name of old or infirmed. If humanity is to survive such global effects, we must maintain our coherency as a civilization, and truly understand the effects of species wide misery as compared to the local death totals. Humanity is built upon optimism and that should be the measure by which action is taken.
All data is sourced in main document*
submitted by LibertyLockedIn to NoNewNormal [link] [comments]


2020.09.10 18:50 LibertyLockedIn I put together the tertiary effects of the Pandemic, and compiled the numbers into a measure of total human grief. The effects are staggering when compared to the totals the media pushes.

Introduction 2020 has been nothing short of a monumental year for the entirety of mankind. There is little doubt and little reason to try and cite this point, as it is well regarded that the world has not been unified in such a painful existence since the economic downturn of the 70’s following the decades of proxy wars around the world. Though it can be said that the recession of 2008 can be described as another low point, there were significant other factors that the world was able to look forward to as a great and heady boon to humanity. The advent and promulgation of cell phones and the internet, the election of a minority to the head office of the United States, the supposed rising of democracy in China. Coupled with all this, most of the problems in the world were focused solely in the Middle East and Africa. This does not excuse the misery that these regions find themselves in consistently throughout their histories. It is only to say that this is their status quo, and as such a comparative analysis of them against their situation during this pandemic would be disingenuous and is not the thesis of this paper. This paper focuses wholly on the Western world, as it is the Western world that has felt the Covid pandemic most acutely, namely the United States, Spain, France, the UK and Italy. The intent of this research is not to dismiss the COVID pandemic, as all studies point to a level of viciousness in how it has attacked our populations, to leave no doubt as to the need for many of the actions that have been taken in order to curb the spread or ‘Flatten the Curve’ as it were. Yet, as the curves have flattened we still find ourselves torn on whether these measures were effective or necessary. It is at this point that the author feels leadership has failed. The only discussion that is being allowed is that of saving lives; but there is no discussion about the exponential effects of such mass humanity wide lock-downs. In the United States for example, as of this writing there are 165,000 Covid-19 Deaths. In other words, .05 percent of the population has perished as a direct result of this pandemic. Assuming the average age of death of a citizen of the United States is 78 and the average age of a Covid death is above 65, we can count those ten years of each victim as ten years of lost life (misery). That is an unimaginable 1.65 million years of collective human loss and suffering due directly to this pandemic. Many in academic and medical circles deem that this statistic is too high and needs to be corrected, but again, the purpose of this paper is to explore the true misery. There are a remaining 334 million Americans, who are not being accounted for in this measure of misery. If we assume, and while this is an assumption, but a valid and obvious one, that each of these individuals has had one miserable weekend due to the response of our governments to Covid-19, that is 334 million bad weekends. To compare that to the suffering brought on by these deaths, this is a collective 1.8 million years of human misery. That alone outweighs the immediate misery of those who have been victim to the pandemic. While death is more finite than a general feeling of depression or misery, it is not and apples to oranges comparison. There is a cost benefit continuum upon which these factors are balanced which must be accounted for when decisions such as this shut down are made. This study posits that the total human life lost is by comparison a much lower total human loss than the tertiary effects of the shut downs, and that the exponentiality of the individual miseries suffering across the western world need to be considered when making the scientific and fact based decisions of whether or not normalcy needs to be returned to the guts of what life is.
As this is a paper written by someone who is not of the media sphere, or of any specific political apparatus. It is only fair that my stake in this be known. I am thirty years old and do not suffer from any pre-existing conditions and as such am not at risk of serious conditions in relation to the pandemic. As well I have not been unemployed throughout this pandemic, and have been in a Work From Home situation for the last six months. I have lost no one close to me, nor known or met anyone who has. My parents are in their late sixties and as such are vulnerable, as well as one of my siblings who is handicapped. My fiance has a Step-father who has been fighting cancer for some time, and is at risk. I have one remaining maternal grandparent who I have not been able to visit since this all began, something that has affected my mother deeply. This paper is meant as an outlet for those others who have felt the misery of not seeing family, of not visiting friends. The misery of watching business shutter and families fall apart. It is a warning against future overreactions when little data is available, and continued overreaction in the name of producing a result designated to ‘save lives’ while thrashing others. Why is life an all or none measurement in this case, why is there no consideration for the quality of life being lived for all others. If we are to be a successful and modern humanity, we must understand that there can be no true sacrifice without considering the effects of that sacrifice, or even the true need of it. I am not currently an academic who completes research on a regular basis, but I did go through the paces to receive a Masters, and as such understand the importance of citation and hypothesis. This paper is meant to be an illumination of how data can be both ignored and weaponized at the same time. It is not meant as a castigation of one ideal over another, or one data set against another. It is simply put, a reorganization of the conversation to move away from the absolutes of ‘preventing deaths’ or ‘saving lives’ and understanding the continuum on which life is lived. 
Misery has three definitions as described by Merriam-Webster. A state of suffering and want that is the result of poverty or affliction
A circumstance, thing, or place that causes suffering or discomfort A state of great unhappiness and emotional distress Any one of these three definitions fulfills the reasoning behind the need for this study. As the data is gathered, it will be these definitions that guide the measures. Economic loss will not be measured in dollars and cents, but as unemployment and business closures, as this paper's focus is that of the personal human experience as opposed to the greater economic impacts of the pandemic, though that picture will be clearer through the analysis of other factors.
As well, all data will be normalized into years as was done in the introductory section. The methodology for this will be discussed in each section as needed. Further, this study will not be looking into the conditions, gender or race informing the deaths of Covid-19 victims, as that is irrelevant to personal effects of both those who are suffering, and those affected by the passing of those with Covid. Finally, this study will focus on the United States as it has the largest numbers of deaths and infections as well as significant and reliable tracking of most statistics related to everyday life, which will be the basis of the determination of misery.
Covid-19 Statistics In order to maintain intellectual and statistical honesty, Covid-19 statistics will be broken down by age categories. Only death will be utilized to measure the misery count, as the effects of infections on an individual can range from asymptomatic to a bad flu. All data for this paper in regards to Covid-19 deaths will be derived from the CDC and State Departments of Health. The age brackets will be arrayed in decade increments of 1-4, 5-14, 15-24, etc. This is the standard by which the CDC is measuring and will be followed here. Further, grief due to the loss of a loved one lasts anywhere from a few months to four years. For those who have passed and were younger than 65, we will apply the maximum of 4 years of grief per family member. According to the census bureau, the average american family in 2019 has 3.14 members, therefore for all deaths under 65, an extra 8 years will be added for immediate family. Upon this we will add another 8 years per death for those under sixty-five to account for acquaintances and more removed family members. A further 4 years will be added for any additional hardship caused outside of the immediate grief of the passing. This is a total of 20 years of misery added per death for those under 65. This will be reduced to 5 years for those over 65, as death is an accepted fact for those over retirement age, leading to a more accepted and prepared understanding of emotional distress and grief. The average life expectancy of 78 will be utilized to calculate years lost. For those in the 75-84 bracket, the total life lost will be considered 10 years, and for those in the 84+ bracket the total life lost will be considered 5 year as both of these age groups are well past the average life expectancy but should not be discounted. Total deaths will be included to provide context to the extent of Covid’s effects on the general death rate. As well as a comparison to the 2018 total death rates. Key Average Age - Death Age = Years of life lost by victim Under 65 tertiary grief: Years of grief suffered by family = 20 Over 65 tertiary grief: Years of grief suffered by family = 5 Total Deaths: Amount of recorded deaths in this age group during this time (includes Covid deaths) Covid Deaths: Amount of recorded deaths in this age group during this time attributed to Covid-19 Immediate Loss: The years of life lost against the average life expectancy. I.e. a 17 year old dying from Covid means 60 years of immediate life were lost. Tertiary Loss: The years of grief felt by those surrounding the lost life. 20 years for those under 65, 5 years for those over 65. Total Misery: The combined sum of misery years felt in immediate and tertiary losses.
Age 0-1 Total Deaths: 9145 Covid Deaths: 16 Immediate Loss: 1,232 Tertiary Loss: 320 Total Misery: 1,552
Age 1-4 Total Deaths: 1,751 Covid Deaths: 10 Immediate Loss: 800 Tertiary Loss: 200 Total Misery: 1,000
Age 5-14 Total Deaths: 2,714 Covid Deaths: 23 Immediate Loss: 1,610 Tertiary Loss: 460 Total Misery: 2,070
Age 15-24 Total Deaths: 17,078 Covid Deaths: 242 Immediate Loss: 14,520 Tertiary Loss: 4,840 Total Misery: 19,360
Age 25-34 Total Deaths: 35,454 Covid Deaths: 1,133 Immediate Loss: 56,650 Tertiary Loss: 22,660 Total Misery: 79,310
Age 35-44 Total Deaths: 50,206 Covid Deaths: 2,920 Immediate Loss: 116,800 Tertiary Loss: 58,400 Total Misery: 175,200
Age 45-54 Total Deaths: 93,269 Covid Deaths: 7,720 Immediate Loss: 231,600 Tertiary Loss: 154,400 Total Misery: 386,000
Age 55-64 Total Deaths: 214,892 Covid Deaths: 18,579 Immediate Loss: 371,580 Tertiary Loss: 371,580 Total Misery: 743,160
Age 65-74 Total Deaths: 326,062 Covid Deaths: 31,487 Immediate Loss: 314,870 Tertiary Loss: 157,435 Total Misery: 472,305
Age 75-84 Total Deaths: 400,195 Covid Deaths: 39,347 Immediate Loss: 393,470 Tertiary Loss: 196,735 Total Misery: 590,205
Age 85+ Total Deaths: 501,536 Covid Deaths: 47,709 Immediate Loss: 238,545 Tertiary Loss: 238,545 Total Misery: 477,090
Overall Totals Total Deaths: 1,652,302 Covid Deaths: 149,186 Immediate Loss: 1,741,677 Tertiary Loss: 1,205,575 Total Misery: 2,947,252
Analysis By these calculations, the age group of 55-64 is suffering the most misery during this time (Fig. 1). This is due to multiple factors, the greatest of which being that at this age, most people still have a significant amount of life to look forward to while also beginning to show the vulnerability of age against Covid. Also, this is the oldest group to maintain the tertiary multipliers of family and friends having to experience their unexpected passing. This is also an increasingly vulnerable population in that they are still a working population, and as such are showing a higher rate of infection. The older age groups are the next most grief stricken age groups due to their high rates of infection and death. The impact of misery on these age groups is somewhat minimized by the fact that they are already reaching the life expectancy high water mark. This is in line with what the CDC and other experts have suggested is the vulnerable population. This shows that they should be cared for and treated most specifically to ensure that this misery does not continue within their age groups, or that their tertiary misery does not spread to other groups.
Comparative Analysis Misery is not something that is only here due to Covid-19. Death is a significant and persistent threat in the United States due to countless factors ranging from heart disease to car accidents. In the 7 months since Covid-19 has begun ravaging the nation, there have been 1.65 million total deaths, which is within the normal expectation of the time period on a given year. Around 9% of all deaths in this time period are directly related to Covid-19. Comparatively, Covid misery only accounts for 1.7% of all the misery caused by death in the United States (fig. 2). This is due to the fact that COVID does not increase the death counts of those in younger age groups, therefore the grief multipliers are not triggered in the same fashion as they do in the Covid death measures. Also, as more than 20% of all Covid deaths are for those 65-75 and nearly 60% of all deaths are those 75 and older, their is far less grief and surprise for these passing, as many of these already maintained pre-existing conditions which put them at risk for any form of illness. Finally, it is important to compare the level of Covid Deaths to that of total deaths in the United States during the same time period. (fig. 3). This is an important distinction to note, as it exemplifies the fact that the direct misery and deaths caused by Covid itself do not in themselves represent a significant increase in the death and or misery that would have been felt in this nation had no action been taken. Considering the fact that Covid has a negligible impact on those under 65, the presence of the disease itself has little to no impact on the general misery caused by death in the United States. As well, the statistics show that there has been no increase in the general death rates of any of these age groups (old or young) due to the break out of this pandemic.
The Congregated Misery of a Lock Down The above analysis shows that misery based on death already inordinately affects those 65 and older. The introduction of Covid as a disease has not affected those numbers in any real fashion. The significant increase in misery of tertiary effects of the Covid lockdowns have produced the most significant increase in the misery and grief of those in the ‘Zoomer’ and ‘Millennial’ generations as explained below. These generations are already well known as having significant monetary and social anxiety issues in a manner which has not been seen in previous generations. These are people under the age of thirty five that have now been through two significant recessions in their short life spans, people that do not have the backing of decades of gainful employment allowing them to maintain a standard of living through an event such as this. As well, these generations require a more robust social network than previous generations. Yet, these are not factors that can easily be measured for the kind of grief they can bring to an individual. As such, this study will be focusing on four key factors to compare the level of misery to that of a normal year. The factors will be: Suicide Depression/ Stir Crazy Drug and Alcohol Use Unemployment/Lost Savings There are myriad other effects that could be measured to pinpoint the misery that these and other generations are feeling. Things such as postponed weddings, missed funerals, cancelled trips and events. These are not being considered as it would be disingenuous to compare such inconveniences to the loss of a loved one. As a note, suicide is the only death related measure being used here due to the sheer tragedy of it and how critically it affects those around it. The reduced rate of deaths due to vehicular accidents and other accidents is not being measured here as that is baked into the general death statistics as stated above.
Suicide In 2019, suicide was on an uptick compared to the previous year, leading to a total of nearly 70,000 deaths by suicide. Already this year, that number has increased by an incredible 11.4% in the same time period. This increase of 11.4% accounts for an increase of nearly 8,000 deaths of young people. The measuring of this statistic this year so far has only been in relation to drug overdoses. In the same age group of 15-44, Covid has killed around 4,400. The lock-downs have led to more deaths by overdose in that age group than the virus itself has killed. In order to measure the levels of misery caused by this increase in suicide, this study will work directly with the numbers of suicide that are currently counted (the suicide numbers outside of drug overdoses are not released until the following year). The median affected group of overdose suicides are 25-34 year olds to capture these 8,000 cases will be placed into that category. The grief multiplier will be increased to 25 from the 20 stated earlier in order to account for the increased tragedy that a suicide has on those closest to the victim. As can be seen by the numbers listed below, the 11% increase in suicide due to the lockdowns has led to a major driver of human misery in the US. This has created an increase of 560,000 years of misery directly attributable to the lock-downs.
Suicide Deaths Covid Deaths: 8,000 Immediate Loss: 400,000 Tertiary Loss: 160,000 Total Misery: 560,000
Depression due to cabin fever “In his famous book on suicide, Durkheim27 emphasized that social connectedness is a critical factor in emotional health and social stability. The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing as well as other research investigations demonstrated that social isolation and loneliness are associated with major depression and generalized anxiety disorder.28,29 Studies have shown that both objective social isolation (e.g. living alone) and subjective sense of being alone are associated with suicidal ideation and behavior.29 These observations are consistent across diverse cultures and populations. For example, the Quebec Health Survey showed that living alone and having no friends were associated with both suicidal ideation and suicide attempts.30 Social disengagement played a role in the increased suicide rate during the 2003 SARS epidemic in Hong Kong.5 One-third of SARS-related suicide victims experienced social isolation during the SARS outbreak. From a suicide prevention perspective, it is troubling that the most important public health approach for the COVID-19 epidemic is social distancing.” The Kaiser Family Foundation has found that a 1,000% percent increase in monthly calls and texts to their mental health hotline since February compared to the same time last year. The hotline had been receiving around 1,790 calls during this time last year, only to see a rise to 20,000 a month this year. Though this will not be utilized to measure direct non-opioid suicides as the data are not available for these, but as a reference it does align with an expected increase in ‘3,235 to 8,164 excess suicides in the United State’ as projected from the University of Toronto In order to measure the level of misery this may cause, this study will consider that each of these calls is representative of a total of three months of misery, due to the trailing effect of the lock downs, and the unending nature of their effects on the mental stability of an individual. 6 months into the pandemic this represents 360,000 months of misery due to domestic abuse, thoughts of suicide, drug or alcohol overdose, or a general feeling of unease and depression. This is an estimation that on the low end, the amount of depression caused by the lock downs has created a total of 120,000 combined years of human misery. This also does not account for depression carried in silence.
Depression Total Calls: 8,000 Immediate and total loss: 120,000
Drug and Alcohol Consumption Nielsen reports that alcohol sales are up in stores 54% and online by 354%. This is coupled with a morning consult poll showing that one in four people under the age of 40 have increased their alcohol consumption during this same period. When coupling this with a study from the CDC which shows that excessive alcohol use is responsible for 93,000 deaths and 2.7 million years of life lost every year in the US a year it becomes evident that the increase is not one to be taken lightly. If the numbers hold it can be expected that there will be an increase of between 16% and 54% of alcohol related deaths. An average expectation would be that an order of nearly 25,000 more americans will die this year than is the norm due to alcohol consumption in relation to the Covid Lock-downs. These 25,000 deaths will be measured with an average category of the 35-44 year old range as it is not only a millennial problem.
Alcohol Deaths Covid Deaths: 25,000 Immediate Loss: 1,000,000 Tertiary Loss: 500,000 Total Misery: 1,500,000
Economic Misery There are two significant variables which go hand in hand when determining the economic effects of Covid-19 lockdowns. These are total unemployment numbers and the rate at which business have gone out of business. “To explore, we surveyed more than 5,800 small businesses that are members of Alignable, a network of 4.6 million small businesses out of 30.7 million in the US. The survey was conducted between March 28 and April 4, 2020. The timing of the survey allows us to understand expectations of business owners at a critical point in time when both the progression of COVID-19 and the government’s response were quite uncertain. Our results also highlight the financial fragility of many businesses. The median firm with monthly expenses over $10,000 had only enough cash on hand to last roughly 2 wk. Three-quarters of respondents only had enough cash on hand to last 2 mo or less. Not surprisingly, firms with more cash on hand were more optimistic that they would remain open by the end of the year. The crisis duration plays a central role in the total potential impact. For a crisis lasting 4 mo instead of 1 mo, only 47% of businesses expected to be open in December compared to 72% under the shorter duration. There is also considerable heterogeneity in how sensitive businesses are to the crisis. In-person industries like personal services or retail reported worse prospects for riding out the pandemic than professional services or other sectors with minimal need for face-to-face contact. Across the sample, 41.3% of businesses reported that they were temporarily closed because of COVID-19. A far smaller number—1.8%—reported that they were permanently closed because of the pandemic. By contrast, only 1.3% reported that they were temporarily closed for other reasons; 55.5% reported that they were still operational. Small businesses employ almost 50% of American workers.” In order to determine the levels of misery caused by business closures, we will assume that the losses incurred during this time are offset to a degree by the CARES Act. The businesses that are open are operating at functional levels, though they are not operating at the profit margins seen pre-covid. Therefore business misery will be measured as follows. Most businesses only operate on a two weeks cash on hand basis, so it will be considered 4 months of misery per shutdown with the assumption that there are an average 2 people who own the businesses. Businesses that expect a 6 month shutdown will be counted as 9 months of misery as the CARES act runs out of funds and the uncertainty of reopening becomes greater the longer their business is shuttered. Businesses that have shut totally will be considered two years of grief for both owner operators as these small businesses represent the life savings of many of those involved, and the fracturing of a dream that must now be rebuilt, if it all.
Small Business Closures Permanent Closures: 4,420,800 3-Month Closure: 4,359,400 6-Month Closure: 9,210,000 Total Misery: 17,990,167
It is when we start getting into the exponential numbers such as these that we start to see the true effects of what a lockdown can do to the mental state of a nation. The backbone of the United States economy is regarded as being small business, and it is in this measure that we can truly see how this pandemic has begun to erode at the soul of the nation. While I believe the point is made here fully, the unemployment that this pandemic has carried is the most devastating if not short-lived measure of misery. As the unemployment numbers have fluctuated so drastically from the start of the pandemic to now (aug 2020) the measures will be tamped down in representation of that shift. To ensure that the business closure numbers are not counted doubly so in the unemployment numbers, the closures of small businesses did not include the affects on the amount of employees these businesses had, and only represented as affecting only the business owners. The employees which were affected will be subsumed into the unemployment numbers as determined by the bureau of labor statistics. Also, the unemployment numbers will not include the total business numbers as the owners may have also filed for unemployment and should not be double counted. Again, as was done in the depression and suicide statistics, these numbers will be represented by the change against the norm as opposed to the total numbers. At the outbreak of the pandemic, America was at 35% unemployment with around 6.2 million unemployed citizens. This number increased to 20.5 Million by may of 2020 resulting in an increase of around 14 million unemployed persons. The unemployment numbers in August began fall below 10% again, meaning 10 million of those unemployed were only in that state for 3 months, during which they received aid from the CARES act. We can safely assume their savings were maintained and their stress was temporary and due to the uncertainty of the coming months and extensions of the benefits. So of the 14 million unemployed, we will assume 9 million only suffered an average 1 month of stressors. Of the remaining 5 million who remain unemployed 4 million have not received any further CARES act benefits as they ran out and as such are likely dipping into their savings. These will be assigned 4 months as the reopening increases in rate and speed their stressors will diminish drastically. A remaining 1 million will be assigned a full year of uncertainty as the economy shuffles into a post-covid environment, and they struggle to find their place in it.
Unemployment Total: 14,000,000 Short Term: 9,000,000 Medium Term: 4,000,000 Long Term: 1,000,000 Total Misery: 3,083,333
Analysis The unemployment statistics alone overshadow the 2.9 million years of combined human misery created by the COVID deaths. All other factors included, the total tertiary misery caused by the lockdowns is a staggering 23.1 million years. While these numbers are derived from real world studies they relate only to a small percentage of the total effects of the lock-downs. Though it does represent an important difference from the Covid misery numbers. It can just as easily be said that some effects directly related to Covid are missed, such as the possible increase in deaths without lockdowns. Yet, the reality here is that there is an exponential effect upon human experience that this virus is unlikely to outweigh. The combined human misery of the tertiary effects is mostly lived experience, whereas the combined death toll of COVID is pure loss, with no silver lining to represent it. It is therefore necessary to compare this year's death rates to those of previous to understand the effects COVID has had on death in the United States, and better understand if the closures have had an overall effect on the misery caused by death, particularly by age group.
2020 v 2018 The latest data available on U.S. total deaths by age group is from 2018. This data is representative of a full year, so it must be broken down to match the 7 months period since Covid-19 has entered the United States. (CDC) As such each age group is being adjusted by a factor of .58 to represent the same time period from 2018. As well, there has been an upward trend of 1.5-1.7% increase in deaths yearly since 2010; this factor has been applied to show the adjusted numbers to more accurately represent the expected death rates from 2018 to 2020. The numbers listed below by age group represent the total death stats for each group during the same time period of each year as well as the projected 2020 deaths based on 2018 numbers.
Age 0-1 Total 2020 Deaths: 9,145 Total 2018 Deaths: 12,880 Projected 2020 Deaths: 13,267
Age 1-4 Total 2020 Deaths: 1,751 Total 2018 Deaths: 2,298 Projected 2020 Deaths: 2,367
Age 5-14 Total 2020 Deaths: 2,714 Total 2018 Deaths: 3,270 Projected 2020 Deaths: 3,368
Age 15-24 Total 2020 Deaths: 17,078 Total 2018 Deaths: 18,092 Projected 2020 Deaths:18,635
Age 25-34 Total 2020 Deaths: 35,454 Total 2018 Deaths: 35,306 Projected 2020 Deaths: 36,366
Age 35-44 Total 2020 Deaths: 50,206 Total 2018 Deaths: 48,228 Projected 2020 Deaths:49,675
Age 45-54 Total 2020 Deaths: 93,269 Total 2018 Deaths: 98,902 Projected 2020 Deaths:101,869
Age 55-64 Total 2020 Deaths: 214,892 Total 2018 Deaths: 224,902 Projected 2020 Deaths: 231,649 Age 65-74 Total 2020 Deaths: 326,062 Total 2018 Deaths: 326,267 Projected 2020 Deaths: 336,055
Age 75-84 Total 2020 Deaths: 400,195 Total 2018 Deaths: 405,123 Projected 2020 Deaths: 417,277
Age 85+ Total 2020 Deaths: 501,536 Total 2018 Deaths: 528,168 Projected 2020 Deaths: 544,013
Totals Total 2020 Deaths: 1,652,302 Total 2018 Deaths: 1,703,437 Projected 2020 Deaths: 1,754,540
Analysis As we can see the data shows that COVID has had somewhat of an inverse effect on the death rates in the United States. Though we have more people dying from this novel disease, and even more dying from tertiary misery effects, we are seeing a general decrease in deaths across most age groups. There can be myriad reasons for this, but likely the most effective being less travelling on roads, automobile accidents being one of the largest killers of Americans year over year.
Critiques A foreseeable critique of this study is that the reason deaths from COVID are so relatively low compared to the rest of the issues presented in this study is because the lock-down was maintained in the aggressive fashion that it was. While this seems a valid critique, there is little evidence to show that the lock-downs produced the desired effects. A comparative analysis of those countries which did not lock down against those which did shows similar infection rates regardless of action taken and in only the most edge cases did hospitals reach near capacity.
Conclusion It is this study’s finding that the lock-down’s indeed had the desired effect of saving human lives against Covid-19, but that these lives saved do not outweigh the tertiary effects of shutting down the entirety of the nation. It was certainly an overreaction when measured against the combined human misery and stress created against the death and the misery which came loaded with that. Particularly, the populations most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic are still in the margin of error for deaths year over year, meaning that it is likely these people would have died regardless of the pandemic making its way through their populations. This study concludes that in future pandemics, it may behoove us to lock down in very temporary fashion until it is better understood how virulent a disease might be, but that these lock downs should be targeted at the most unhealthy populations, and should only be enacted in those populations that have the most vulnerability. Further, the mental health and gestalt mindset of a society must be taken into account when making such sweeping suggestions. The amount of riots and discontent sweeping the western world cannot be wholly removed from the effects of the lock downs. 2020 will be seen as a generational trauma, something that is impossible to measure here. This study does not take into account the amount of young lives that did not get to experience their proms or graduations. Or their final seasons of their favorite sports. It does not take into account the inability for families to gather for weddings or funerals or the destruction of plans that may have affected countless young minds and formed them into future scholars or artists. The general disregard for young experiences and the exponential effects of lock-downs on mass populations cannot be overlooked in a future situation such as this. In all era’s of history, the old have sacrificed for the young, to ensure they live to their fullest potential; and it is a step back to sacrifice the experience of the young, in the name of old or infirmed. If humanity is to survive such global effects, we must maintain our coherency as a civilization, and truly understand the effects of species wide misery as compared to the local death totals. Humanity is built upon optimism and that should be the measure by which action is taken.
All data is sourced in main document*
submitted by LibertyLockedIn to LockdownSkepticism [link] [comments]


2020.09.10 18:12 LibertyLockedIn I put together the tertiary effects of the Pandemic, and compiled the numbers into a measure of total human grief. The effects are staggering when compared to the totals the media pushes.

Introduction 2020 has been nothing short of a monumental year for the entirety of mankind. There is little doubt and little reason to try and cite this point, as it is well regarded that the world has not been unified in such a painful existence since the economic downturn of the 70’s following the decades of proxy wars around the world. Though it can be said that the recession of 2008 can be described as another low point, there were significant other factors that the world was able to look forward to as a great and heady boon to humanity. The advent and promulgation of cell phones and the internet, the election of a minority to the head office of the United States, the supposed rising of democracy in China. Coupled with all this, most of the problems in the world were focused solely in the Middle East and Africa. This does not excuse the misery that these regions find themselves in consistently throughout their histories. It is only to say that this is their status quo, and as such a comparative analysis of them against their situation during this pandemic would be disingenuous and is not the thesis of this paper. This paper focuses wholly on the Western world, as it is the Western world that has felt the Covid pandemic most acutely, namely the United States, Spain, France, the UK and Italy. The intent of this research is not to dismiss the COVID pandemic, as all studies point to a level of viciousness in how it has attacked our populations, to leave no doubt as to the need for many of the actions that have been taken in order to curb the spread or ‘Flatten the Curve’ as it were. Yet, as the curves have flattened we still find ourselves torn on whether these measures were effective or necessary. It is at this point that the author feels leadership has failed. The only discussion that is being allowed is that of saving lives; but there is no discussion about the exponential effects of such mass humanity wide lock-downs. In the United States for example, as of this writing there are 165,000 Covid-19 Deaths. In other words, .05 percent of the population has perished as a direct result of this pandemic. Assuming the average age of death of a citizen of the United States is 78 and the average age of a Covid death is above 65, we can count those ten years of each victim as ten years of lost life (misery). That is an unimaginable 1.65 million years of collective human loss and suffering due directly to this pandemic. Many in academic and medical circles deem that this statistic is too high and needs to be corrected, but again, the purpose of this paper is to explore the true misery. There are a remaining 334 million Americans, who are not being accounted for in this measure of misery. If we assume, and while this is an assumption, but a valid and obvious one, that each of these individuals has had one miserable weekend due to the response of our governments to Covid-19, that is 334 million bad weekends. To compare that to the suffering brought on by these deaths, this is a collective 1.8 million years of human misery. That alone outweighs the immediate misery of those who have been victim to the pandemic. While death is more finite than a general feeling of depression or misery, it is not and apples to oranges comparison. There is a cost benefit continuum upon which these factors are balanced which must be accounted for when decisions such as this shut down are made. This study posits that the total human life lost is by comparison a much lower total human loss than the tertiary effects of the shut downs, and that the exponentiality of the individual miseries suffering across the western world need to be considered when making the scientific and fact based decisions of whether or not normalcy needs to be returned to the guts of what life is.
As this is a paper written by someone who is not of the media sphere, or of any specific political apparatus. It is only fair that my stake in this be known. I am thirty years old and do not suffer from any pre-existing conditions and as such am not at risk of serious conditions in relation to the pandemic. As well I have not been unemployed throughout this pandemic, and have been in a Work From Home situation for the last six months. I have lost no one close to me, nor known or met anyone who has. My parents are in their late sixties and as such are vulnerable, as well as one of my siblings who is handicapped. My fiance has a Step-father who has been fighting cancer for some time, and is at risk. I have one remaining maternal grandparent who I have not been able to visit since this all began, something that has affected my mother deeply. This paper is meant as an outlet for those others who have felt the misery of not seeing family, of not visiting friends. The misery of watching business shutter and families fall apart. It is a warning against future overreactions when little data is available, and continued overreaction in the name of producing a result designated to ‘save lives’ while thrashing others. Why is life an all or none measurement in this case, why is there no consideration for the quality of life being lived for all others. If we are to be a successful and modern humanity, we must understand that there can be no true sacrifice without considering the effects of that sacrifice, or even the true need of it. I am not currently an academic who completes research on a regular basis, but I did go through the paces to receive a Masters, and as such understand the importance of citation and hypothesis. This paper is meant to be an illumination of how data can be both ignored and weaponized at the same time. It is not meant as a castigation of one ideal over another, or one data set against another. It is simply put, a reorganization of the conversation to move away from the absolutes of ‘preventing deaths’ or ‘saving lives’ and understanding the continuum on which life is lived. 
Misery has three definitions as described by Merriam-Webster. A state of suffering and want that is the result of poverty or affliction
A circumstance, thing, or place that causes suffering or discomfort A state of great unhappiness and emotional distress Any one of these three definitions fulfills the reasoning behind the need for this study. As the data is gathered, it will be these definitions that guide the measures. Economic loss will not be measured in dollars and cents, but as unemployment and business closures, as this paper's focus is that of the personal human experience as opposed to the greater economic impacts of the pandemic, though that picture will be clearer through the analysis of other factors.
As well, all data will be normalized into years as was done in the introductory section. The methodology for this will be discussed in each section as needed. Further, this study will not be looking into the conditions, gender or race informing the deaths of Covid-19 victims, as that is irrelevant to personal effects of both those who are suffering, and those affected by the passing of those with Covid. Finally, this study will focus on the United States as it has the largest numbers of deaths and infections as well as significant and reliable tracking of most statistics related to everyday life, which will be the basis of the determination of misery.
Covid-19 Statistics In order to maintain intellectual and statistical honesty, Covid-19 statistics will be broken down by age categories. Only death will be utilized to measure the misery count, as the effects of infections on an individual can range from asymptomatic to a bad flu. All data for this paper in regards to Covid-19 deaths will be derived from the CDC and State Departments of Health. The age brackets will be arrayed in decade increments of 1-4, 5-14, 15-24, etc. This is the standard by which the CDC is measuring and will be followed here. Further, grief due to the loss of a loved one lasts anywhere from a few months to four years. For those who have passed and were younger than 65, we will apply the maximum of 4 years of grief per family member. According to the census bureau, the average american family in 2019 has 3.14 members, therefore for all deaths under 65, an extra 8 years will be added for immediate family. Upon this we will add another 8 years per death for those under sixty-five to account for acquaintances and more removed family members. A further 4 years will be added for any additional hardship caused outside of the immediate grief of the passing. This is a total of 20 years of misery added per death for those under 65. This will be reduced to 5 years for those over 65, as death is an accepted fact for those over retirement age, leading to a more accepted and prepared understanding of emotional distress and grief. The average life expectancy of 78 will be utilized to calculate years lost. For those in the 75-84 bracket, the total life lost will be considered 10 years, and for those in the 84+ bracket the total life lost will be considered 5 year as both of these age groups are well past the average life expectancy but should not be discounted. Total deaths will be included to provide context to the extent of Covid’s effects on the general death rate. As well as a comparison to the 2018 total death rates. Key Average Age - Death Age = Years of life lost by victim Under 65 tertiary grief: Years of grief suffered by family = 20 Over 65 tertiary grief: Years of grief suffered by family = 5 Total Deaths: Amount of recorded deaths in this age group during this time (includes Covid deaths) Covid Deaths: Amount of recorded deaths in this age group during this time attributed to Covid-19 Immediate Loss: The years of life lost against the average life expectancy. I.e. a 17 year old dying from Covid means 60 years of immediate life were lost. Tertiary Loss: The years of grief felt by those surrounding the lost life. 20 years for those under 65, 5 years for those over 65. Total Misery: The combined sum of misery years felt in immediate and tertiary losses.
Age 0-1 Total Deaths: 9145 Covid Deaths: 16 Immediate Loss: 1,232 Tertiary Loss: 320 Total Misery: 1,552
Age 1-4 Total Deaths: 1,751 Covid Deaths: 10 Immediate Loss: 800 Tertiary Loss: 200 Total Misery: 1,000
Age 5-14 Total Deaths: 2,714 Covid Deaths: 23 Immediate Loss: 1,610 Tertiary Loss: 460 Total Misery: 2,070
Age 15-24 Total Deaths: 17,078 Covid Deaths: 242 Immediate Loss: 14,520 Tertiary Loss: 4,840 Total Misery: 19,360
Age 25-34 Total Deaths: 35,454 Covid Deaths: 1,133 Immediate Loss: 56,650 Tertiary Loss: 22,660 Total Misery: 79,310
Age 35-44 Total Deaths: 50,206 Covid Deaths: 2,920 Immediate Loss: 116,800 Tertiary Loss: 58,400 Total Misery: 175,200
Age 45-54 Total Deaths: 93,269 Covid Deaths: 7,720 Immediate Loss: 231,600 Tertiary Loss: 154,400 Total Misery: 386,000
Age 55-64 Total Deaths: 214,892 Covid Deaths: 18,579 Immediate Loss: 371,580 Tertiary Loss: 371,580 Total Misery: 743,160
Age 65-74 Total Deaths: 326,062 Covid Deaths: 31,487 Immediate Loss: 314,870 Tertiary Loss: 157,435 Total Misery: 472,305
Age 75-84 Total Deaths: 400,195 Covid Deaths: 39,347 Immediate Loss: 393,470 Tertiary Loss: 196,735 Total Misery: 590,205
Age 85+ Total Deaths: 501,536 Covid Deaths: 47,709 Immediate Loss: 238,545 Tertiary Loss: 238,545 Total Misery: 477,090
Overall Totals Total Deaths: 1,652,302 Covid Deaths: 149,186 Immediate Loss: 1,741,677 Tertiary Loss: 1,205,575 Total Misery: 2,947,252
Analysis By these calculations, the age group of 55-64 is suffering the most misery during this time (Fig. 1). This is due to multiple factors, the greatest of which being that at this age, most people still have a significant amount of life to look forward to while also beginning to show the vulnerability of age against Covid. Also, this is the oldest group to maintain the tertiary multipliers of family and friends having to experience their unexpected passing. This is also an increasingly vulnerable population in that they are still a working population, and as such are showing a higher rate of infection. The older age groups are the next most grief stricken age groups due to their high rates of infection and death. The impact of misery on these age groups is somewhat minimized by the fact that they are already reaching the life expectancy high water mark. This is in line with what the CDC and other experts have suggested is the vulnerable population. This shows that they should be cared for and treated most specifically to ensure that this misery does not continue within their age groups, or that their tertiary misery does not spread to other groups.
Comparative Analysis Misery is not something that is only here due to Covid-19. Death is a significant and persistent threat in the United States due to countless factors ranging from heart disease to car accidents. In the 7 months since Covid-19 has begun ravaging the nation, there have been 1.65 million total deaths, which is within the normal expectation of the time period on a given year. Around 9% of all deaths in this time period are directly related to Covid-19. Comparatively, Covid misery only accounts for 1.7% of all the misery caused by death in the United States (fig. 2). This is due to the fact that COVID does not increase the death counts of those in younger age groups, therefore the grief multipliers are not triggered in the same fashion as they do in the Covid death measures. Also, as more than 20% of all Covid deaths are for those 65-75 and nearly 60% of all deaths are those 75 and older, their is far less grief and surprise for these passing, as many of these already maintained pre-existing conditions which put them at risk for any form of illness. Finally, it is important to compare the level of Covid Deaths to that of total deaths in the United States during the same time period. (fig. 3). This is an important distinction to note, as it exemplifies the fact that the direct misery and deaths caused by Covid itself do not in themselves represent a significant increase in the death and or misery that would have been felt in this nation had no action been taken. Considering the fact that Covid has a negligible impact on those under 65, the presence of the disease itself has little to no impact on the general misery caused by death in the United States. As well, the statistics show that there has been no increase in the general death rates of any of these age groups (old or young) due to the break out of this pandemic.
The Congregated Misery of a Lock Down The above analysis shows that misery based on death already inordinately affects those 65 and older. The introduction of Covid as a disease has not affected those numbers in any real fashion. The significant increase in misery of tertiary effects of the Covid lockdowns have produced the most significant increase in the misery and grief of those in the ‘Zoomer’ and ‘Millennial’ generations as explained below. These generations are already well known as having significant monetary and social anxiety issues in a manner which has not been seen in previous generations. These are people under the age of thirty five that have now been through two significant recessions in their short life spans, people that do not have the backing of decades of gainful employment allowing them to maintain a standard of living through an event such as this. As well, these generations require a more robust social network than previous generations. Yet, these are not factors that can easily be measured for the kind of grief they can bring to an individual. As such, this study will be focusing on four key factors to compare the level of misery to that of a normal year. The factors will be: Suicide Depression/ Stir Crazy Drug and Alcohol Use Unemployment/Lost Savings There are myriad other effects that could be measured to pinpoint the misery that these and other generations are feeling. Things such as postponed weddings, missed funerals, cancelled trips and events. These are not being considered as it would be disingenuous to compare such inconveniences to the loss of a loved one. As a note, suicide is the only death related measure being used here due to the sheer tragedy of it and how critically it affects those around it. The reduced rate of deaths due to vehicular accidents and other accidents is not being measured here as that is baked into the general death statistics as stated above.
Suicide In 2019, suicide was on an uptick compared to the previous year, leading to a total of nearly 70,000 deaths by suicide. Already this year, that number has increased by an incredible 11.4% in the same time period. This increase of 11.4% accounts for an increase of nearly 8,000 deaths of young people. The measuring of this statistic this year so far has only been in relation to drug overdoses. In the same age group of 15-44, Covid has killed around 4,400. The lock-downs have led to more deaths by overdose in that age group than the virus itself has killed. In order to measure the levels of misery caused by this increase in suicide, this study will work directly with the numbers of suicide that are currently counted (the suicide numbers outside of drug overdoses are not released until the following year). The median affected group of overdose suicides are 25-34 year olds to capture these 8,000 cases will be placed into that category. The grief multiplier will be increased to 25 from the 20 stated earlier in order to account for the increased tragedy that a suicide has on those closest to the victim. As can be seen by the numbers listed below, the 11% increase in suicide due to the lockdowns has led to a major driver of human misery in the US. This has created an increase of 560,000 years of misery directly attributable to the lock-downs.
Suicide Deaths Covid Deaths: 8,000 Immediate Loss: 400,000 Tertiary Loss: 160,000 Total Misery: 560,000
Depression due to cabin fever “In his famous book on suicide, Durkheim27 emphasized that social connectedness is a critical factor in emotional health and social stability. The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing as well as other research investigations demonstrated that social isolation and loneliness are associated with major depression and generalized anxiety disorder.28,29 Studies have shown that both objective social isolation (e.g. living alone) and subjective sense of being alone are associated with suicidal ideation and behavior.29 These observations are consistent across diverse cultures and populations. For example, the Quebec Health Survey showed that living alone and having no friends were associated with both suicidal ideation and suicide attempts.30 Social disengagement played a role in the increased suicide rate during the 2003 SARS epidemic in Hong Kong.5 One-third of SARS-related suicide victims experienced social isolation during the SARS outbreak. From a suicide prevention perspective, it is troubling that the most important public health approach for the COVID-19 epidemic is social distancing.” The Kaiser Family Foundation has found that a 1,000% percent increase in monthly calls and texts to their mental health hotline since February compared to the same time last year. The hotline had been receiving around 1,790 calls during this time last year, only to see a rise to 20,000 a month this year. Though this will not be utilized to measure direct non-opioid suicides as the data are not available for these, but as a reference it does align with an expected increase in ‘3,235 to 8,164 excess suicides in the United State’ as projected from the University of Toronto In order to measure the level of misery this may cause, this study will consider that each of these calls is representative of a total of three months of misery, due to the trailing effect of the lock downs, and the unending nature of their effects on the mental stability of an individual. 6 months into the pandemic this represents 360,000 months of misery due to domestic abuse, thoughts of suicide, drug or alcohol overdose, or a general feeling of unease and depression. This is an estimation that on the low end, the amount of depression caused by the lock downs has created a total of 120,000 combined years of human misery. This also does not account for depression carried in silence.
Depression Total Calls: 8,000 Immediate and total loss: 120,000
Drug and Alcohol Consumption Nielsen reports that alcohol sales are up in stores 54% and online by 354%. This is coupled with a morning consult poll showing that one in four people under the age of 40 have increased their alcohol consumption during this same period. When coupling this with a study from the CDC which shows that excessive alcohol use is responsible for 93,000 deaths and 2.7 million years of life lost every year in the US a year it becomes evident that the increase is not one to be taken lightly. If the numbers hold it can be expected that there will be an increase of between 16% and 54% of alcohol related deaths. An average expectation would be that an order of nearly 25,000 more americans will die this year than is the norm due to alcohol consumption in relation to the Covid Lock-downs. These 25,000 deaths will be measured with an average category of the 35-44 year old range as it is not only a millennial problem.
Alcohol Deaths Covid Deaths: 25,000 Immediate Loss: 1,000,000 Tertiary Loss: 500,000 Total Misery: 1,500,000
Economic Misery There are two significant variables which go hand in hand when determining the economic effects of Covid-19 lockdowns. These are total unemployment numbers and the rate at which business have gone out of business. “To explore, we surveyed more than 5,800 small businesses that are members of Alignable, a network of 4.6 million small businesses out of 30.7 million in the US. The survey was conducted between March 28 and April 4, 2020. The timing of the survey allows us to understand expectations of business owners at a critical point in time when both the progression of COVID-19 and the government’s response were quite uncertain. Our results also highlight the financial fragility of many businesses. The median firm with monthly expenses over $10,000 had only enough cash on hand to last roughly 2 wk. Three-quarters of respondents only had enough cash on hand to last 2 mo or less. Not surprisingly, firms with more cash on hand were more optimistic that they would remain open by the end of the year. The crisis duration plays a central role in the total potential impact. For a crisis lasting 4 mo instead of 1 mo, only 47% of businesses expected to be open in December compared to 72% under the shorter duration. There is also considerable heterogeneity in how sensitive businesses are to the crisis. In-person industries like personal services or retail reported worse prospects for riding out the pandemic than professional services or other sectors with minimal need for face-to-face contact. Across the sample, 41.3% of businesses reported that they were temporarily closed because of COVID-19. A far smaller number—1.8%—reported that they were permanently closed because of the pandemic. By contrast, only 1.3% reported that they were temporarily closed for other reasons; 55.5% reported that they were still operational. Small businesses employ almost 50% of American workers.” In order to determine the levels of misery caused by business closures, we will assume that the losses incurred during this time are offset to a degree by the CARES Act. The businesses that are open are operating at functional levels, though they are not operating at the profit margins seen pre-covid. Therefore business misery will be measured as follows. Most businesses only operate on a two weeks cash on hand basis, so it will be considered 4 months of misery per shutdown with the assumption that there are an average 2 people who own the businesses. Businesses that expect a 6 month shutdown will be counted as 9 months of misery as the CARES act runs out of funds and the uncertainty of reopening becomes greater the longer their business is shuttered. Businesses that have shut totally will be considered two years of grief for both owner operators as these small businesses represent the life savings of many of those involved, and the fracturing of a dream that must now be rebuilt, if it all.
Small Business Closures Permanent Closures: 4,420,800 3-Month Closure: 4,359,400 6-Month Closure: 9,210,000 Total Misery: 17,990,167
It is when we start getting into the exponential numbers such as these that we start to see the true effects of what a lockdown can do to the mental state of a nation. The backbone of the United States economy is regarded as being small business, and it is in this measure that we can truly see how this pandemic has begun to erode at the soul of the nation. While I believe the point is made here fully, the unemployment that this pandemic has carried is the most devastating if not short-lived measure of misery. As the unemployment numbers have fluctuated so drastically from the start of the pandemic to now (aug 2020) the measures will be tamped down in representation of that shift. To ensure that the business closure numbers are not counted doubly so in the unemployment numbers, the closures of small businesses did not include the affects on the amount of employees these businesses had, and only represented as affecting only the business owners. The employees which were affected will be subsumed into the unemployment numbers as determined by the bureau of labor statistics. Also, the unemployment numbers will not include the total business numbers as the owners may have also filed for unemployment and should not be double counted. Again, as was done in the depression and suicide statistics, these numbers will be represented by the change against the norm as opposed to the total numbers. At the outbreak of the pandemic, America was at 35% unemployment with around 6.2 million unemployed citizens. This number increased to 20.5 Million by may of 2020 resulting in an increase of around 14 million unemployed persons. The unemployment numbers in August began fall below 10% again, meaning 10 million of those unemployed were only in that state for 3 months, during which they received aid from the CARES act. We can safely assume their savings were maintained and their stress was temporary and due to the uncertainty of the coming months and extensions of the benefits. So of the 14 million unemployed, we will assume 9 million only suffered an average 1 month of stressors. Of the remaining 5 million who remain unemployed 4 million have not received any further CARES act benefits as they ran out and as such are likely dipping into their savings. These will be assigned 4 months as the reopening increases in rate and speed their stressors will diminish drastically. A remaining 1 million will be assigned a full year of uncertainty as the economy shuffles into a post-covid environment, and they struggle to find their place in it.
Unemployment Total: 14,000,000 Short Term: 9,000,000 Medium Term: 4,000,000 Long Term: 1,000,000 Total Misery: 3,083,333
Analysis The unemployment statistics alone overshadow the 2.9 million years of combined human misery created by the COVID deaths. All other factors included, the total tertiary misery caused by the lockdowns is a staggering 23.1 million years. While these numbers are derived from real world studies they relate only to a small percentage of the total effects of the lock-downs. Though it does represent an important difference from the Covid misery numbers. It can just as easily be said that some effects directly related to Covid are missed, such as the possible increase in deaths without lockdowns. Yet, the reality here is that there is an exponential effect upon human experience that this virus is unlikely to outweigh. The combined human misery of the tertiary effects is mostly lived experience, whereas the combined death toll of COVID is pure loss, with no silver lining to represent it. It is therefore necessary to compare this year's death rates to those of previous to understand the effects COVID has had on death in the United States, and better understand if the closures have had an overall effect on the misery caused by death, particularly by age group.
2020 v 2018 The latest data available on U.S. total deaths by age group is from 2018. This data is representative of a full year, so it must be broken down to match the 7 months period since Covid-19 has entered the United States. (CDC) As such each age group is being adjusted by a factor of .58 to represent the same time period from 2018. As well, there has been an upward trend of 1.5-1.7% increase in deaths yearly since 2010; this factor has been applied to show the adjusted numbers to more accurately represent the expected death rates from 2018 to 2020. The numbers listed below by age group represent the total death stats for each group during the same time period of each year as well as the projected 2020 deaths based on 2018 numbers.
Age 0-1 Total 2020 Deaths: 9,145 Total 2018 Deaths: 12,880 Projected 2020 Deaths: 13,267
Age 1-4 Total 2020 Deaths: 1,751 Total 2018 Deaths: 2,298 Projected 2020 Deaths: 2,367
Age 5-14 Total 2020 Deaths: 2,714 Total 2018 Deaths: 3,270 Projected 2020 Deaths: 3,368
Age 15-24 Total 2020 Deaths: 17,078 Total 2018 Deaths: 18,092 Projected 2020 Deaths:18,635
Age 25-34 Total 2020 Deaths: 35,454 Total 2018 Deaths: 35,306 Projected 2020 Deaths: 36,366
Age 35-44 Total 2020 Deaths: 50,206 Total 2018 Deaths: 48,228 Projected 2020 Deaths:49,675
Age 45-54 Total 2020 Deaths: 93,269 Total 2018 Deaths: 98,902 Projected 2020 Deaths:101,869
Age 55-64 Total 2020 Deaths: 214,892 Total 2018 Deaths: 224,902 Projected 2020 Deaths: 231,649 Age 65-74 Total 2020 Deaths: 326,062 Total 2018 Deaths: 326,267 Projected 2020 Deaths: 336,055
Age 75-84 Total 2020 Deaths: 400,195 Total 2018 Deaths: 405,123 Projected 2020 Deaths: 417,277
Age 85+ Total 2020 Deaths: 501,536 Total 2018 Deaths: 528,168 Projected 2020 Deaths: 544,013
Totals Total 2020 Deaths: 1,652,302 Total 2018 Deaths: 1,703,437 Projected 2020 Deaths: 1,754,540
Analysis As we can see the data shows that COVID has had somewhat of an inverse effect on the death rates in the United States. Though we have more people dying from this novel disease, and even more dying from tertiary misery effects, we are seeing a general decrease in deaths across most age groups. There can be myriad reasons for this, but likely the most effective being less travelling on roads, automobile accidents being one of the largest killers of Americans year over year.
Critiques A foreseeable critique of this study is that the reason deaths from COVID are so relatively low compared to the rest of the issues presented in this study is because the lock-down was maintained in the aggressive fashion that it was. While this seems a valid critique, there is little evidence to show that the lock-downs produced the desired effects. A comparative analysis of those countries which did not lock down against those which did shows similar infection rates regardless of action taken and in only the most edge cases did hospitals reach near capacity.
Conclusion It is this study’s finding that the lock-down’s indeed had the desired effect of saving human lives against Covid-19, but that these lives saved do not outweigh the tertiary effects of shutting down the entirety of the nation. It was certainly an overreaction when measured against the combined human misery and stress created against the death and the misery which came loaded with that. Particularly, the populations most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic are still in the margin of error for deaths year over year, meaning that it is likely these people would have died regardless of the pandemic making its way through their populations. This study concludes that in future pandemics, it may behoove us to lock down in very temporary fashion until it is better understood how virulent a disease might be, but that these lock downs should be targeted at the most unhealthy populations, and should only be enacted in those populations that have the most vulnerability. Further, the mental health and gestalt mindset of a society must be taken into account when making such sweeping suggestions. The amount of riots and discontent sweeping the western world cannot be wholly removed from the effects of the lock downs. 2020 will be seen as a generational trauma, something that is impossible to measure here. This study does not take into account the amount of young lives that did not get to experience their proms or graduations. Or their final seasons of their favorite sports. It does not take into account the inability for families to gather for weddings or funerals or the destruction of plans that may have affected countless young minds and formed them into future scholars or artists. The general disregard for young experiences and the exponential effects of lock-downs on mass populations cannot be overlooked in a future situation such as this. In all era’s of history, the old have sacrificed for the young, to ensure they live to their fullest potential; and it is a step back to sacrifice the experience of the young, in the name of old or infirmed. If humanity is to survive such global effects, we must maintain our coherency as a civilization, and truly understand the effects of species wide misery as compared to the local death totals. Humanity is built upon optimism and that should be the measure by which action is taken.
All data is sourced in main document*
submitted by LibertyLockedIn to conspiracy_commons [link] [comments]


2020.09.10 02:06 Jaracgos The Engoodening of r/WorldPolitics, Diary of a Meme War

https://i.redd.it/ksvip2za1fy41.png

The Beginning: From Politics to Hentai

Some men just want to watch the world burn.

Wednesday, May 6th, 2020
Straight up anime titties hentai. Your move mods, let's see if you have the balls to remove my post.
was submitted by u/TheLoIiLicker69.
This post and it being later pinned is ground zero for everything that happened to WorldPolitics and started the first wave of off-topic shitposts: Hentai and Waifu- not e-thots, not Warhammer 40K.
Here are his motivations as he put them:
Over the past few days, several karmawhoring reposts of "upvote this picture of trump looking dumb" that blatantly break sitewide reddit rules have been upvoted to the front page of all and the subreddit kept getting spammed with them. Yes I understand there is basically no moderation here, but Reddit rule 4 literally says "asking for votes or engaging in vote manipulation" is prohibited. At the very least the mods should remove posts that violate sitewide rules. And no I'm not a salty Trumptard, the "uPvOtE rEpOsTeD pIcTuReS oF _____ cUz GoOglE" are just actual cancer. Look at the comments of any one of those posts, no one likes them. The mods were asked to do something about it but they flat out refused to do their jobs and ban or remove a single post on this subreddit. Thus, the sub has dissolved into chaos and is full of shitposters like me spamming it with stupid memes or straight up porn because the mods are too smallbrained to do anything.
Edit: every one keeps thinking I'm a salty MAGA Trumptard for some reason. Let me assure you that is not the case, I in fact despise trump as a person. All people wanted was for the mods to ban "upvote this picture of ______ so it shows up on google" posts because they are annoying and no one fucking likes them. This is worldpolitics not WeHateTrumpCirclejerk, go shit on Trump in one of the sanders subreddits they love that stuff.
Edit 2: also for everyone saying this is child porn please kindly check your eyes and tell me what child you've seen with these bountiful pair of double D titties. Not to mention this character, Aki Nijou, is literally a mid-20s school nurse in the anime Maken-ki so she's 100% legal. Kindly stop spamming my inbox saying she's an "age indeterminate teen."
Post Link:
https://www.reddit.com/worldpolitics/comments/gern8i/straight_up_anime_titties_hentai_your_move_mods/
Comment Link:
https://www.reddit.com/worldpolitics/comments/gern8i/straight_up_anime_titties_hentai_your_move_mods/fpphzmp?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x
Thursday, May 7th 2020
In exasperation from the influx of porn and hentai shitposts, the moderators set /worldpolitics to private. This was only a temporary action but when the subreddit opened back up it had seen a substantial moderator exodus and a few newcomers.
New WorldPolitics moderator u/FreeSpeechWarrior had this to say on another subreddit, WatchRedditDie:
Nah it got privatized because a recently added mod went rogue and added some of the protestors as mods who then locked down the sub, made it NSFW, stickied hentai etc... I've reverted the damage. We let people post what they want within the rules of Reddit and don't try to exercise any control over the discussion beyond what the admins require of us. If people want to post about US Politics / Trump (whether for or against him) in Reddit's most unrestricted political/news sub then they are welcome to do so. If you don't like the content in worldpolitics you can vote it down.
Part of the 'damage' that was referred to as being reverted has been confirmed to have been removing from the mod team long-standing moderator u/ilvisar (alt) along with u/TheLoIiLicker69, who had served mere minutes. The name was also reverted back to its original state from being temporarily christened 'WorldPolititties', and u/TheLoliLicker69's post was removed from sticky.
Comment Link:
https://www.reddit.com/WatchRedditDie/comments/gexpdk/rworld_politics_just_got_privatised_by_the_mods/fpqo79q?context=3
I have been able to substantiate this through off-site interviews with u/TheLoIiLicker69, a comment on a selfpost, and through the collaboration of fellow journalists mentioned below.
Discord Quote:
"i was never supposed to be a mod and I was only there for 20 minutes before I got removed lol. The only reason I got to mess around with the sub was because one of the actual mods ilvisar was also tired of the orange man bad karma farming hellhole that worldpol was turning into, so he added me to screw with it together."
Comment Link:
https://www.reddit.com/useTheLoIiLicker69/comments/geyo4a/the_state_of_rworldpolitics/fpqlkja?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
Thursday, May 7th 2020
I'm the former mod of worldpolitics that made it a hentai sub before I was booted, AMA
was submitted by u/ilvisar.
This was an AMA posted to casualiama in which a booted moderator, using an alternate account, answered users questions on the events happening on his former subreddit.
Post Link:
https://www.reddit.com/casualiama/comments/gfb9m1/im_the_former_mod_of_rworldpolitics_that_made_it/
Thursday, May 7th 2020
Rate limiting is in effect
was submitted by mod u/IAmAnAnonymousCoward.
It limited submissions to two posts per hour to try and cut down on spamming. The limit was later lifted and the post edited to reflect, but I am unsure exactly when the edit was made and the limitation removed.
Post Link:
https://www.reddit.com/worldpolitics/comments/gfge86/rate_limiting_is_in_effect/
Thursday, May 7th 2020 -
Anime_Titties was chartered by u/M1chaelSc4rn, with u/TheLoIiLicker69 as a moderator, to be the new home for discussing world politics. Its governing rules were set in place on his post titled “What is and isn't allowed regarding posts related to the U.S”.
Note from the Author:
This is actually a great sub. Please join in. No Shitposting.
Subreddit Link:
https://www.reddit.com/anime_titties/
Post Link:
https://www.reddit.com/anime_titties/comments/gfd4lwhat_is_and_isnt_allowed_regarding_posts_related/
Thursday, May 7th 2020
The Chronical of worldpolitics anime_titties and PearlsOfAnimeTitties"
was written by u/TheAmazingKyla on /PearlsOfAnimeTitties, a tangential subreddit focusing on meta discussion of /anime_titties. This post served as explanation to the formation of the newfound home for global political discussion.
Here are the insightful words:
Settle down children and I'll tell you a story. Are you sitting comfortably?"
"It all started long ago, when worldpolitics, a sub for "world" "politics" began karma whoring over real world political news. It was minor at first, but as soon as it began, it was nay to be stoped. As more and more karma whoring got posted, more and more became discruntled and disamused, untill 5 posts in no time at all were all begging for upvotes about upstein and trump being together to "get it to the front page" or "make it show up when you google them". It hit a boiling point."
People knew the mods would do nothing, as they were non-interventionist, so hell broke loose in an instant. worldpolitics fell from it's shit world political status to posting memes, hentai, porn, and shitposting, a bit of an upgrade really"
"In responce, the subbreddit of anime_titties was born, ironicly one of the best world politics subs reddit has seen, with 100% less US centric posts, in addition to a much more polite and refined atmosphere"
"Knowing that the quality of anime_titties was so high, a branch off was created for meta and memes, which led you, little political child of the world, to here."
Post Link:
https://www.reddit.com/PearlsOfAnimeTitties/comments/gfxkdy/the_chronical_of_rworldpolitics_ranime_titties/
Friday, May 8th 2020
Petition to make this our new subreddit header.
was submitted by u/JeantheDragon.
Moderator u/IAmAnAnonymousCoward approved and granted the change that day. It has been speculated that this new banner being seen on “Popular Subreddits” lists as well as user submitted untagged NSFW content hitting /all is what caused the subreddit-wide NSFW label. The banner was temporarily removed but, once the subreddit no longer appeared in lists that it would be shown, it was eventually restored.
Post Link:
https://www.reddit.com/worldpolitics/comments/gflqww/petition_to_make_this_our_new_subreddit_heade
Banner source image:
https://www.pixiv.net/en/artworks/56255833

Phase 2: E-thots and Shitposters

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
It is between these two dates, May 7th and 9th, that the first evolution of the sub occurred after its initial transformation. The change was graceful but there was a steady influx of OnlyFans content creators from GoneWild and a steady decline of 2D imagery hitting /hot. It was at this point that I focused my attention on user moderating /new with the help of several other users, downvoting others trying to get the subreddit back on politics and away from what they assumed to be only a temporary halt to normal operations. We intended to make sure that was not the case through the raw power of shitposting random content and nuking anything remotely political.
This back and forth continued for days, we were barely hanging on but us few were dedicated. This was our crusade.
I am unable to find nexus point, the initial post submission, of an OnlyFans advertisement. If you have this information please contact me with sources so that I can add to this timeline.
Friday, May 8th 2020 -
Join me in my crusade, brothers!
was submitted by u/senior_cynic to GrimDank, a Warhammer 40K-centric meme subreddit. This is the first instance I can find of a call to action from the 40K community.
Post Link:
https://www.reddit.com/Grimdank/comments/gfmg5c/join_me_in_my_crusade_brothers/
u/senior_cynic had this to say when asked for comment through private messages:
"Motivations? I think I speak for everyone except the onlyfans users that this whole thing is basically born for quarantine based boredom. I called grimdank in when rate limiting was in effect just for more volume of warhammer shitposting, and once that was gone, we were already the largest presence on the sub, so we took it over."
"I anticipated us being a major force for another few days and see where it went from there"
Saturday, May 9th 2020
What happened?
post made by mod u/IAmAnAnonymousCoward.
Post was made sticky post on submission but was removed from sticky sometime around May 15th.
https://www.reddit.com/worldpolitics/comments/ggj4zwhat_happened/
Thursday, May 14th 2020
No more promising rewards via PM, we're considering it spam
was submitted by mod u/IAmAnAnonymousCoward.
This post outlined rules for the OnlyFans E-thots to follow such as not advertising their off-site content in post titles, comments, or direct messages with other users. It was these rules that broke the first evolution and allowed for the transition to phase three.
Post Link:
https://www.reddit.com/worldpolitics/comments/gjhr3no_more_promising_rewards_via_pm_were_considering/

Phase 3: The Inquisition

Hatred is the emperor's greatest gift to humanity.
It took the Warhammer community several days to assert their dominance and gain control of the sub. Their crusade was hard fought, but with the help of the new rules and regulations set in place by the moderators driving out the heretical content they were able to establish dominion. Again, there was no single post that drove this transition outside of the initial calls to arms in GrimDank and other 40K communities.
Note from the author:
I was able to take my first break from Reddit in almost ten days thanks to these dedicated users. I finally felt that we had the reinforcements necessary to ensure that the new normal would be maintained and that the old status-quo of this subreddit would not resurface. I got to enjoy an afternoon at the beach that I haven’t seen in months due to quarantine and watch the sun set. I was able to enjoy actual world politics again and participate in conversations outside of WorldPolitics. Thank you.
The Warhammer 40K Galactic Imperium was a mighty force, it had managed to do what rules alone could not- deliver this holy land from the heretical lewd pestilence that had driven it's tentacles deep into the crevices of this subreddits userbase.
No king rules forever. No king rules without its due resistance, in due time.
Saturday, May 16th 2020
Oh? This is a Warhammer Sub now? Well, if you say so~
was submitted by u/PyrrhaRose.
PyrrhaRose is a special user on WorldPolitics. She didn't necessarily come for factions or rivalries or crusades. She was always here for the lewds. Upon seeing the complete decimation of her beloved sanctum of lust at the hands of the Grimdank Imperium, this ambiguous spectator became one of the strongest individual powerhouses on the subreddit. She is a lone juggernaut.
She used the one weapon she had at her disposal to seek her retribution, the one means to demoralize and fight off the onslaught- artistically composed pornographic fan art based on characters from the Warhammer 40K universe. She continued this fight, alone, until she gained a cult following of fans and became a known and respected figure in the community.
u/PyrrhaRose gave these compelling remarks when asked about her feelings on the recent ceasefire between factions:
I kinda wanna thank everyone for coming together like we did a few days ago. To come to a peace agreement, and the likes. The toxicity was getting very bad at one point and I brought it up with the others, and instead of them siding with the more toxic ones they agreed! And we slowly shifted to more fun centric. Which just made me extremely happy. Nowadays, there’s hardly any toxicity, and it’s still really fun! I hope we get to continue doing so, and to keep the freedom we’ve had all this time going forward. •^
Post Link:
https://www.reddit.com/worldpolitics/comments/gkudab/oh_this_is_a_warhammer_sub_now_well_if_you_say_so/
Statement from PyrrhaRose Link:
https://www.reddit.com/memewarsnews/comments/gshq8n/the_engoodening_of_rworldpolitics_updates/fs5jvd1
Saturday, May 16th 2020, approx. 7AM
Fuck y'all, this is a plant sub now. Post pics of your plants!
was submitted by u/purple_yosher.
This post marks the formation of the first major faction to rival the 40K Imperium, the Plant Squad. Desperate for something, anything, relatable to latch on to, users quickly joined the cause.
u/purple_yosher had this to say when asked what the motivations were for this new movement, about faction rivalries, and current events:
day drinking and a thirst for plants.
there was hostility at first, but plant gang represents peace and unity.
plants good, lewds bad
Post Link:
https://www.reddit.com/worldpolitics/comments/gktpws/fuck_yall_this_is_a_plant_sub_now_post_pics_of/
Statement from purple_yosher Link:
https://www.reddit.com/u_Jaracgos/comments/glsfs9/the_engoodening_of_rworldpolitics/fr328lf?context=3
Sunday, May 17th, 2020, approx. 7PM-
A call to action.
was submitted to Gardening by u/that-dyslexic.
This was a recruitment for the newly formed Plant Squad. Although the post did not get much traction in its subreddit support had grown for the squad substantially since its formation.
Post Link:
https://www.reddit.com/gardening/comments/glrlqb/a_call_to_action/
Sunday, May 17th, 2020 –
Looking for a more appropriate subreddit banner
was submitted by mod u/IAmAnAnonymousCoward.
A user requested a 40k banner and was acknowledged with “This will do.” However the image does not appear as the current banner, but instead a JoJo’s Bizarre Adventure mural is pictured. This marks the first major change to the look of the subreddit since u/JeantheDragon submitted his suggestion.
Post Link:
https://www.reddit.com/worldpolitics/comments/glb5hy/looking_for_a_more_appropriate_subreddit_banne

Phase 4 and Beyond

Reality really can be whatever you want.
We are here. The first faction that broke out were the Plants, but many have come to try and wrestle control from the ruthless collective might of miniature figurine collectors around the globe. Nobody knows what will come of the future, if the Warhammer shitposters have the dedication to hold control or if the tides of fate will move in another direction.
All I really know is that this subreddit will never again be what it was before we started here, and that was our intention. What happens from here on out is up to you, the reader and the Reddit user.
You have the power to be the change you wish to see in the world and to instill that change.
Thursday, May 21st, 2020 –
Choose your faction now!
was submitted by mod u/IAmAnAnonymousCoward.
This post marks the addition of user flair features to signify team and squad membership. It looks as though the flairs will be maintained, at least for now, as the dynamic of the subreddit changes.
Factions as of May 27th are: 'furry', '🌱', 'tf2', '🔥this is amazing 🔥', 'darkwraiths', 'deus vult', 'worldpolitics', 'anime titties', 'titties', 'grimdank', 'shitpostcrusaders', 'prequelmemes', 'berserktards', and 'hydrohomies'.
Post Link:
https://www.reddit.com/worldpolitics/comments/gnrten/choose_your_faction_now/
Thursday, May 21st, 2020 –
When the crusaders start calling me Warmaster
was submitted by u/g0d-3mp3r0r.
The tides of war had worn long on u/senior_cynic, the defacto figurehead for the Warhammer incursion. There were rumors of betrayal but evidence for such action has proven elusive, however his role as Warmaster was short lived. In his place u/g0d-3mp3r0r was granted the leadership position, chosen to direct and instill discipline in what forces remained after the long skirmishes.
When asked for comment on his role in events, u/g0d-3mp3r0r chose these words:
I have always been told I had the mind of a politician and the stubbornness of a mule. I was already nominated for Warmaster by senior_cynic back when he stepped down and soon a lot of the new recruits called me warmaster, showing the traditional community acceptance of my new role. Whilst I will admit that I could hear the voices of chaos in the form of PyrrhaRose I did not falter in my leadership of the crusade. I immediately decided to do something about the death threats and lack of centralization by granting titles to Kaiserschalt, LooneyW, Noisy_Ferox and Watercrown123. They would be my Inner Circle and we would lead the crusade together. There was also leadership coming from Petty Officer Imperium_of_69 whilst we were asleep because timezones. The taint of heresy would infect many of our crusaders but they would never stop fighting, until they did when peace was declared. The war is still raging on against the thots and political posters but one day I will be able to hang up my spear and retire
Post Link:
https://www.reddit.com/worldpolitics/comments/gne8dd/when_the_crusaders_start_calling_me_warmaste
Comment Link:
https://www.reddit.com/memewarsnews/comments/gshq8n/comment/fs71bv9
Tuesday, May 26th, 2020 –
/worldpolitics, can we do this as a community?
was submitted and pinned by mod u/IAmAnAnonymousCoward.
On seeing the content move further from NSFW content the moderators put forward the idea of having the subreddit-wide label removed, but this change would hinge on the community being able to consistently apply the labels to their postings themselves or for others to report untagged posts.
Post Link:
https://www.reddit.com/worldpolitics/comments/gqt5ta/rworldpolitics_can_we_do_this_as_a_community/
Friday, August 21st, 2020 –
My friend, fellow anime_titties moderator, and the initial instigator of the fall of WorldPolitics, u/TheLoIiLicker69 , has had all of his reddit accounts permanently suspended. I wanted to make sure that the community was made aware of this and the reasons behind it, these are his words taken directly from off platform communications;
"Well shoot sorry guys all my accounts including the alt I used to mod AT got permanently suspended for posting personal information. I was on a thread about the animemes doxxing and wanted to clear up the misconception that the doxxer was a member of the animemes community, so I posted a link to a screenshot of their comment admitting they were just a transphobic asshole stirring up drama, which was probably what got me suspended since that's the only personal info I've revealed.Yeah I expected a comment removal at most for that not a permanent ban. Sucks that it had to happen because I was trying to make sure the animemes community didn't get falsely blamed for the actions of 1 lunatic."
"I posted the comment I suspect got me banned a earlier this morning and my ban was about an hour ago"
Post Link:
https://www.reddit.com/memewarsnews/comments/ie504d/utheloiilicker69_the_user_credited_with_starting//
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Epilogue: by u/TheLoIiLicker69

The Beginning is the End is the Beginning.
Mahatma Ghandi is smiling upon us all, for we have become the change we wished to see. Our cause is just.
Also funny thing is about 2 days before I nuked worldpol I'd gotten a 15 day ban on my main account from my favorite shitposting sub okbuddyretard, so it wouldn't be a stretch to say that caused a chain reaction leading to the engoodening of this formerly terrible sub. Shoutout to whichever anonymous mod temp banned me, I'd probably have been too busy pretending to be a retarded 9 year old otherwise lmao.
An extra special thanks as well to everyone who saw what was happening and joined in on the shitposting, as well as to those who have helped grow anime_titties to be an actually good replacement. Whilst I am good at causing chaos, I have next to no leadership skills and it's really thanks to all the great mods there that the new sub has grown to almost 100k members in under 2 weeks. We'll be working our hardest to continue making the sub into a legitimate source of world news and keep it from becoming another USA-only echochamber. In the meantime keep the dream alive and have fun memeing everyone 👌
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PS: I am sure that I have missed an event or two, if you have a suggestion for an addition please provide me with a detailed account of your experiences and links for citation to ensure legitimacy. Anyone wanting me to redact their username please comment below, I left them up so that you were notified of this post. A lot of people have been asking for it.
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Special thanks to u/TellMeMoreYT for his interest in journalistic collaboration and for catching the reference.
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If you use any or all of this, please cite where you got the information. It wasn’t easy following along and documenting all of this or going back to find things that were missed.
submitted by Jaracgos to stories [link] [comments]


2020.09.09 20:02 Drstrangelove899 The 5 worst weapons in MRW

I'll preface this by saying that I use and love every weapon in the game and all are pretty capable and enjoyable. This list is an objective look at are what are arguable the worst weapons...
  1. Insect Glaive - Generally just lacks major DPS, its main ground combo is pretty good but falls short vs most other offerings, its definitely useful in that its pretty safe to stay airborne but the damage output here generally is sub par. Its also surprisingly not a good elemental option having low elemental mods on its attacks, this can be covered up with elemental kinsects though so its not so bad.
  2. LBG (big citation, non sticky spam) - so we know that sticky spam LBG is currently one of the most effective and highest damage builds available, but take that away and you're generally left with a worse HBG, it does elemental ammo well but its not as good at elem as say dual blades or SnS and the other ammo types are generally handled better by HBG other than normal, which isn't very good these days. It also suffers from having lower defense than melee and other than dodging no damage mitigation like HBG and less dodge potential than the bow.
  3. Gunlance - This Hurts as I love the GL, but it definitely lacks in the overal dps vs alot of other weapons outside of totally optimal conditions, i.e. the monster stand still and lets you loop full burst/4x charged shell/shell poke shell over and over, which lets be honest isn't happening in MR. It has a good block but so does charge blade, it however lacks any decent mobility, its slow to attack and slow to sheath.
  4. Hunting Horn - No doubt here I'm gonna piss off the band camp, I love the HH but you can't deny its motion values suck for its speed and it lacks any real burst potential, ramp up or general DPS, the buffs are nice definitely and its KO potential is definitely handy, but pit it against just about anything else and it won't be able to out damage it.
  5. Lance - oh the poor lance, I mained it for so long in base game but its just the absolute worst in terms of DPS. It has no burst, its sustainable DPS isn't great, its mobility sucks, its slow to sheath, its not good at elemental, its new MR thing is sucide against alot of things, it blocks real nice but hey so does GL and CB so its not really got that going for it. Im terms of pure 'the monster is down go nuts' damage, its definitely the worst.
Again I want to say, I don't think any weapon in the game is trash and if If I slagged of your main im sorry.
Like I said, I happily use all these weapons and love every second of it, this is just purely critical analysis!
submitted by Drstrangelove899 to MonsterHunterWorld [link] [comments]


2020.09.09 05:09 surupamaerl Dahui and huatou

So, as some of you have already gathered, I have been down the rabbit hole of huatou for a little while now. This post covers the wiki article on the subject in detail, without going too much into other sources of information. That is more than enough for one Reddit post.
(I focus on the wiki article because it is what is given to me most often when someone discusses huatou.)
The wiki article makes a lot of assertions about what huatou is, how it was promulgated, and by whom. I will be discussing the points made, whether they are sourced properly, and the quality of the sources. I will largely be ignoring sources that discuss Korean Seon, focusing rather on when the article discusses Zen, and Dahui in particular.
The second most cited reference is:
Yen, Sheng (2009), Shattering the Great Doubt: The Chan Practice of Huatou, Translated by, Dharma Drum publications
Shengyen is a 20th century Zen Monk who claims lineage to Linji and Caodong, and who focuses on moral teachings, and updating Zen with modernizing influences such as, they claim, Daoism and Confucianism did for Zen. Sheng's lineage is hard to track; the wiki article sites a dictionary on Buddhism which merely says in it that they did receive transmission; Sheng's Soto lineage traces through Harada Roshi (who was the one who sent Hakuun west, who refused Philip Kapleau transmission and then disowned him). Given that my interest is in the Tang and Song Zen Masters, I will set this aside.
The second source that takes up only a few small points about Dahui's connection to huatou is:
Schlütter, Morten (2008), How Zen became Zen. The Dispute over Enlightenment and the Formation of Chan Buddhism in Song-Dynasty China, Honolulu: University of Hawai'i Press, ISBN 978-0-8248-3508-8
Not a terrible scholarly source. If you wish to know Schlütter's view of what a koan is, written in the Encyclopedia of Buddhism, it can be found here.
Schlütter said that Dahui felt “All the myriad doubts are just one doubt. If you can shatter the doubt you have on the hua-t’ou, then all the myriad doubts will at once be shattered [too],” and that huatou was meant for the layman. u/Temicco also pointed me to this.
What is the most interesting and will be the main focus of this post is the reference that gets used the most in the wiki article, being the source that covers most of the citations:
Lachs, Stuart (2012), Hua-t’ou : A Method of Zen Meditation (PDF)
This essay is deplorable. I do not know who Lachs wrote it for, but it mainly offers up 3 references; Schlütter once; a biography of Seon Master Chinul used a couple of times (which seems besides the point when I am searching for Dahui's own words); and the author's 30 years of Zen practice at a Shengyen Meditation Center in NYC.
Here is a list of points the author makes without giving any source:
If I was Lachs'professor, I would fail them. It is poorly written, poorly sourced, with no primary sources whatsoever. That being said, there is one source that does get brought up periodically in the essay that is much more interesting.
Miriam Levering , PhD. Dissertation, Ch’an Enlightenment For Laymen: Ta-Hui And The New Religious Culture Of The Sung, Harvard University, 1978.
Here is the PDF I found. Levering's dissertation is brought up in many places where Dahui is discussed. The points Lachs brings up from Levering are:
In Levering's dissertation, I focused on pages 240-303, the same pages as Lachs, since this is a PhD research paper on Song Dynasty economics, religion, history, politics etc. while Chapters 7 and 8 focus specifically on Dahui's ideas about huatou, silent illumination, and how Zen should be studied.
The is outline here (p.16):
In these chapters the distinctions Ta-hui draws between true and false and helpful and harmful forms of teaching and practice are explored, showing that [huatou] is precisely the form of Ch'an practice which is the most profound, the most effective, and the most theoretically defensible,...[as well as] exploration of Ta-hui's teaching about hua-t'ou practice, his teachings about false or ineffective practice will be explored, and the theoretical underpinning of hua-t' ou, the theory of doubt...[Dahui's view that huatou is the most appropriate for scholarly minded individuals ] will also be explored as evidence...
I feel these need to be established using Dahui's own words, so I will be focused on when Levering cites Dahui, rather than too much into what they themselves say without a reference.
Besides establishing Dahui's belief in the enlightening power of Daoism and Neo-Confucianism, Levering hopes to establish (p.13):
That Ta-hui's insistence on the efficacy of hua-t'ou practice and denunciation of silent illumination practice, and his affinity for the universal version of the Hua-yen [Avatamsaka] sutra, are related to his desire to reach out to laymen.
(It should be noted that according to Levering, unlike modern Rinzai schools, Dahui taught that there is a moment of enlightenment that any huatou can reach and then can be abandoned, rather than gradual stages of koan study.) (p.304)
Other points Levering makes:
Based on what I've written up until now, I think that those who have been following can see why my confusion on the matter is so thick. I have not made up my mind, but what I will do is leave here, at length, an excerpt from Dahui's letters, which I believe has been translated by Levering. Huatou is translated multiple times, but what word it is being translated from is not clear. The context seems pretty unambiguous though. It is obvious that Levering is an academic, not a Zen Master. All in all, I have no real means to evaluate what is being said here. I will leave it up to the reader to form their own opinions as well.
Just raise this hua-t' ou before you. When suddenly all your techniques are exhausted, you will be enlightened ....Only move your deluded mind onto the [hua-t'ouj "dry dung stick" and fix it there. The mind-that fears life and death, the deluded mind, the mind of rational thought and distinctions, the mind that wants to be smart, naturally won't be able to function. When you become aware that [these other aspects of mind] won't do, don't be afraid of "falling into emptiness." Suddenly, facing the place where your attention is fixed, cut off all "news," and the unsurpassed joy and peace will appear. When you succeed in the cutting off of "news," you won't be hindered any more by giving rise to views about the Buddha, the Dharma, or sentient beings, by thought and distinctions, by being intelligent, by explaining the truth rationally.
The truth [Dharma] cannot be mastered by seeing, hearing and thinking. If it is, it is no more than seeing, hearing and thinking--it is not seeking after the truth itself. For the truth is not what you hear from others or learn through understanding. Now keep yourself away from all that you have seen, heard and thought, and see what you have within yourself--emptiness only, nothingness, which eludes your grasp and to which you cannot fix your thought. Why? Because this is the place to which the senses can never reach. If this place were within their reach, it would be something you could think of and glimpse; it would then be something subject to the law of birth and death.
The main thing is to shut off all your sense-organs and make your consciousness like a block of wood. When this block of wood suddenly stirs and makes a noise, that is the moment when you feel like a lion roaring in the wilds, or an elephant crossing a stream regardless of its swift current. At that moment there is no fidgeting, no doing, just this and no more ....
You should know that you enter the path by seeing, hearing and thinking, and that by seeing, hearing and thinking you are also prevented from entering.
Why? If you wield the double-bladed sword that destroys and resusciates life in your seeing, hearing and thinking, you will be able to make good use of your eyes, ears and mind. But if the sword that cuts both ways, that destroys as well as resusciates, is missing, your seeing, hearing and thinking will be a great stumbling block, which will cause you to fall again and again to the ground. Your truth-eye will be completely blinded; You will be walking in complete darkness, not knowing how to be free and independent. If you want, however, to be the free master of yourself by doing away with your seeing, hearing and thinking, stop your hankering monkey-like mind from doing mischief; keep it quietly under control; keep it firmly collected regardless of what you are doing--sitting or lying, standing or walking, remaining silent or talking; keep your mind stretched taut like a line; do not let it slip out of your hand. Just as soon as it slips out of your control, you will find it in the service of seeing, hearing and thinking. In such a case, is there any remedy, and if so, what is it? A monk asked Yun-men, "Who is the Buddha?" "The dried dung-stick." This is the remedy.
If you want to understand completely, you must breakthrough in this one thought. Then you will bring samsara to an end and for the first time be able to speak of "awakening and entering". But you must not preserve your mind and wait for enlightenment. If you concentrate your mind on the idea of breaking through, then you will never break through. You must all at once put down the mind of delusion, the mind of thought and distinctions, the mind that loves life and hates death, the mind that enjoys quiet and hates noise, and then only at that place of putting down look into a hua-t'ou. The monk asked Chao-chou, "Does the dog have the Buddha-Nature or not?" Chao-chou replied, "No." This one word is a weapon to conquer many evil thoughts and opinions. You mustn't understand it as the "non-being" of "being and non-being," nor as being a "truth" [you can reason about] ...Only at all times throughout the twenty-four hours, whatever you are doing, raise it and work on it. "Does a dog have the Buddha-Nature?" Answer: "No." Without leaving your daily activities, try making this kind of effort and see. In a month or even ten days, you will see for yourself. The official duty of a prefecture of a thousand li won't be a hindrance to you.
There are numerous quotes from Dahui's letters over the next 20-30 pages of the dissertation that seem to outline huatou. They are all very beautiful. Here are some highlights:
Just be at ease 24 hours a day. If an old habit- impediment arises, don't use your mind to expel it. Just look into a hua-t'ou: "Does the dog have Buddha-Nature or not?" At this instant, the impediment will disappear like a flake of snow hitting a flame.
...
Don't interrupt your practice for a moment. All the time, when you are walking or standing or sitting or lying, look into your hua-t'ou. When you are studying, or reading histories, or cultivating benevolence, righteousness, propriety, wisdom and trustworthiness, when you are serving your superiors or criticising students or eating or drinking, struggle with [your hua-t' ou].
...
The time will come when your mind will suddenly come to a stop like an old rat in a cul-de-sac. Then there will be a plunging into the unknown with the cry, "Ah, this!" When this cry is uttered, you have discovered yourself. You find at the same time that all the teachings of the ancient worthies expounded in the Buddhist Tripitaka, the Taoist scriptures and the Confucian classics, are no more than commentaries upon your own sudden cry, "Ah this!"
submitted by surupamaerl to zen [link] [comments]


2020.09.07 15:03 AmericanNewt8 Biden's New START and modern nuclear war

Well, boys, I reckon this is it - nuclear combat toe to toe with the Roosskies. Now look, boys, I ain't much of a hand at makin' speeches, but I got a pretty fair idea that something doggone important is goin' on back there. And I got a fair idea the kinda personal emotions that some of you fellas may be thinkin'. Heck, I reckon you wouldn't even be human bein's if you didn't have some pretty strong personal feelin's about nuclear combat. I want you to remember one thing, the folks back home is a-countin' on you and by golly, we ain't about to let 'em down.
Major Kong, Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb [quote here] [full film available here at archive.org, highly recommend, definitive American dark comedy on the subject]
Hello! We're sort of taking a break from East Asia-specific this week to talk about a great conversation-starter: Thermonuclear war. As developments in this area have not entirely halted in the past few decades, and yet I suspect most [not all--there's probably like one 80-year-old or something] of the readers of this post were either not alive during the Cold War or were too young to really appreciate most of what was happening during that period, I feel that it's important to cover the topic, especially with "great-power competition" being a new buzzword and the possibility that the NPT and the other arms control and limitation agreements that have been prominent for the past few decades falling apart being very real.
I'm sorry in advance if I occasionally get a bit repetitive but I think I've made a fairly comprehensive post on the subject, and I don't think I've particularly biased it one way or the other [though of course, that's what I would think].
Glossary:
Bunker-buster = nuclear warhead designed to destroy hardened sites, like bunkers or missile silos
Nuclear weapon = nuclear bomb = nuclear warhead = weapon that uses an operating principle based on nuclear physics
Thermonuclear weapon = more advanced type of nuclear weapon that uses fusion as its primary energy source rather than fission
Warhead = the part of the weapon that goes boom
Fuze = what sets off the bomb, distinct from fuse, which is an electrical part
Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty = one of the biggest arms control treaties in recent years, barred the US and USSRussia from having land-based missiles that were nuclear capable with a range from 500km to 5500km]
Ballistic missile = missile that travels in ballistic trajectories, fast, difficult to intercept, accuracy problems and always powered by rockets
Cruise missile = missile that travels in the atmosphere, smaller, difficult to intercept but easier than ballistic missiles--but harder to detect, powered by jet engines and air-breathing and thus slower
SRBM = Short-range ballistic missile [1000km range or less, most less than 300km to comply with MTCR or less than 500km to comply with the former INF Treaty]
MRBM = Medium-range ballistic missile [1000km to 3000km range, common in arsenals outside the US and Russia]
IRBM = Intermediate-range ballistic missile [3000km to 5500km range, common in arsenals outside the US and Russia, previously barred by the INF Treaty
ICBM = Intercontinental ballistic missile [5500km+ range, standard in US and Russian arsenals, China, France, and possibly North Korea operate a handful]
SSBN = "boomer" = ballistic missile submarine, nuclear powered and nuclear armed [no conventionally armed ballistic missile subs exist at present to the best of my knowledge, the only proposal being known a Trident conventional version]
Early warning = the systems used to detect missile launches and track them, could be ground-based radars or satellites
MIRV = Multiple independent reentry vehicles, a way to attach multiple warheads to one missile
SLBM = submarine-launched ballistic missile
Tactical nuke = determined by usage, not yield, tactical nukes are meant to be used in conflicts that do not escalate to an all-out nuclear war
Countervalue = a capability to strike against an opponent's cities and hard targets
Counterforce = a capability to strike against an opponent's hardened missile silos
Gravity bomb = nuke dropped from a plane
Nuclear triad = the full set of nuclear delivery methods: Air-launched cruise missiles/bombs, submarine-launched missiles, and ground-based missiles
SDI = "Star Wars" = strategic defense initiative, the origin of all of America's modern missile defense efforts
ABM = anti-ballistic missile
Nuclear sharing = a system via which nuclear warheads, owned by the US, are located in NATO countries [and in the past non-NATO countries] and can be turned over to their management in wartime
Some particular pieces of hardware to know about:
Trident = the submarine-launched ballistic missile currently used by the US and UK, can carry up to 14 warheads in MIRV configuration [typically 4 under treaty limits], solid-fueled and an ICBM as well as a SLBM
Minuteman-III = the current ground-based nuclear deterrent of the United States, ICBM, also MIRVed to handle 3 warheads, built in the 1960s originally and solid-fueled
Peacekeeper = MX = LGM-118 = the most sophisticated ground-based ICBM fielded by the United States and, possibly, by any power, solid-fueled and carried 12 [limited by treaty to 10] MIRVed warheads. Retired in 2005 due to high cost and arms limitation treaties. Meant to replace Minuteman.

1. The Bomb

The very first nuclear bombs relied on fission, the power of splitting atoms of fissile material to generate vast amounts of energy very quickly in a chain reaction. The general principle here is critical mass. Once a critical mass of the fissile material is achieved--usually either Uranium-235 or Plutonium-239--it activates a chain reaction which results in a nuclear explosion. These bombs are very simple in operating principle--pretty much anyone could build one if given the requisite materials. The main problem, and the reason we have not yet seen a nuclear warhead DIY, is that the fissile materials are very difficult to get. One must either synthesize plutonium in an atomic pile or use one of the various methods developed to enrich uranium--gaseous diffusion and centrifuges being the major ones. Either one takes a significant amount of time and specialized equipment, at least to produce nuclear weapons in any quantity. However, when you get down to it, any sufficiently motivated group could build one of these--at least if not stopped by another, more motivated group. Even North Korea could do this.
The next step in evolution was the boosted fission nuke. It represented a nuclear weapon that was more capable, but not radically so. By adding fusion fuel to the nuclear weapon, specifically the fission assembly, you could get a better yield--splitting more of the atoms in the core assembly before it suffered a critical existence failure and got spread out over several square miles. Fission-boosting is also fairly easily done, with the main obstacle being obtaining enough deuterium, lithium, and/or tritium to do the job correctly. These are, to my knowledge, pretty seldom seen; but I would suspect that both Pakistan and North Korea have them.
Thermonuclear weapons are, however, a major leap in capability. Much larger yield warheads can be built, in the multi-megaton range, and miniaturization is also possible, which is very useful for missiles in particular. Thermonuclear weapons rely on adding a fusion "secondary" stage, which is set off by a "primary" fission stage and generates vast quantities of energy. However, thermonuclear weapons are much more difficult to develop than fission-based weapons; largely because they rely on exotic materials and classified physics to operate. The United States itself has had difficulty building new thermonuclear weapons, or refreshing ones in current inventory, because it has lost knowledge of how to build some key materials. Most nuclear powers, however, are believed to or known to possess thermonuclear weapons, the exceptions being Pakistan and North Korea.

2. The Cold War

Nuclear weapons were probably the defining feature of the Cold War, at least once it finally began in earnest in the 1950s. To this day, the Cold War defines the cultural conception of nuclear weapons.
What this is about, though, is more a mechanical than philosophical or sociological discussion, explaining why nukes were, and are, used. Or rather, are planned to be used, because despite hundreds of nuclear tests, nobody has ever used a nuclear weapon in wartime in just over 75 years, since the US dropped a crude plutonium device on the Japanese city of Nagasaki.
The very beginning of nuclear war involved hundreds of strategic bombers--first B-29s, which actually cost more than the Manhattan Project to develop--and then more advanced jet bombers, the most iconic of which and perhaps the most enduring is the B-52 Stratofortress, which the US Air Force expects to remain in service through possibly the end of the century. These were the only viable delivery vehicles, and thus both the US [well, mostly the US] and the Soviet Union rushed to build as many of them as possible, with [unfounded] concerns of a "Bomber Gap" resulting in the construction of thousands of strategic bombers. In the event of war, these bombers would take off from their bases and drop nuclear bombs on enemy positions. For a substantial length in time, the US actually maintained a constant patrol of B-52 bombers with nuclear warheads onboard, which, in the event of a surprise attack, would retaliate against the USSR. It is one of these bombers which Dr Strangelove focuses on--though I should note that only a handful of people actually possessed the ability to launch a nuclear strike, and even then only in contingencies when the president was unavailable, and this persists to this day, excepting submarines--which will be mentioned in a moment.
However, technology marched on, and soon the ballistic missile became the delivery vehicle of choice. Early ballistic missiles were relatively crude, based off of the original V-2 design and whose quality was largely determined by how many Nazis you had stolen at the end of the Second World War. However, technology continued to evolve, and soon ICBMs had enough accuracy to launch countervalue attacks. These attacks targeted cities and aimed to deter an enemy from launching a first strike by ensuring that doing so would destroy the nation of the attacker. This doesn't mean that ballistic missiles were the only delivery method, though. Smaller nuclear weapons were built, designed to be delivered by air. They offered greater accuracy and tactical utility, and lowered the risk of a strategic nuclear exchange breaking out. It was around this time that tactical and strategic nuclear exchanges began to be devised in nuclear theory, with tactical nukes becoming essential to NATO war plans due to the numerical, and sometimes qualitative, inferiority of their conventional forces when faced with Warsaw Pact opponents. Nuclear weapons found their way into practically every kind of format. Nuclear-tipped air-to-air rockets were an early invention, aimed at shooting down massed bomber formations. Nuclear-tipped surface-to-air-missiles soon followed. Nuclear anti-ship missiles, nuclear artillery, and even "backpack nukes" like the Atomic Demolition Munition all were developed for a variety of purposes. Nuclear depth charges, nuclear torpedoes--if you put explosives in something, chances are someone drew up a plan to put a nuke in it. [as an aside, Cold War schemes to use nuclear weapons to perform massive construction projects, such as liquidating the Athabasca Tar Sands or creating a giant salt lake in Egypt, are one of my favorite Cold War relics]. Nukes were the bread and butter of Cold War strategy in a way that seems hardly conceivable today. This is largely why both the US and USSR had stockpiles of tens of thousands of weapons.
Mutual assured destruction, or MAD as it is commonly known, was also derived during this time, suggesting that the way to prevent nuclear war was by ensuring that any initiation of nuclear combat would lead to certain destruction. The development of SSBNs and SLBMs, which provided a way to ensure survivability of the nuclear arsenal and a sure second strike capability--usually countervalue because of the lower accuracy of SLBMs--seemed to make this set in stone. These would avoid destruction in a first strike by hiding within the ocean, and would then launch based off of orders issued from base--or, in the case of Britain, off of orders written by the Prime Minister and secured in the submarines to be opened in event of war.
Unfortunately, life tends to make things more complicated, and this was and is the case with MAD. The first problem that developed was that of the MIRV, or Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicle. This allowed missiles to carry large numbers of warheads, as many as twelve in the case of the LGM-118 Peacekeeper [probably the most sophisticated ICBM ever developed, the Soviet R-36 threw 10 and Trident D5 14 smaller warheads]. As a result of this fact, combined with increasing accuracy of reentry vehicles [especially, it is thought, on the part of the United States], a counterforce strike that could eliminate an enemy's ground-based nuclear deterrent became possible. MIRVs also place a high value on first-strike because each MIRVed missile can destroy numerous enemy silos but is correspondingly more vulnerable to first-strike as it replaces a dozen independent missiles with a single one. As a result limitations of MIRVed warheads have been a major focus of arms reduction treaties and several attempts have been made to ban usage of the technology altogether. Other problems complicated the situation further, such as anti-ballistic missiles, which potentially could shelter a nation from a weak second-strike. However, this broadly describes most of the key elements of nuclear war, skipping over the vast cultural and political impacts of nuclear weapons for the most part, because that's not really what I'm focused on here.

3. Arms control and non-proliferation

From the moment the US first got its hands on the bomb, it sought to keep it away from everyone else, including a very miffed Britain which had been promised access to the secrets learned from the Manhattan Project as a result of the contributions of its "Tube Alloys" program to the American development of the bomb. The Atomic Energy Act of 1946, or McMahon Act, has largely set American nuclear policy since its creation. Britain ultimately developed its own nuclear bomb, and the Soviets, in a large part thanks to the involvement of traitorous American nuclear scientists, developed their own bomb as well. By the 1950s, the world was in a frantic race to build the bomb--those who had it, to build more of them, and those who didn't, to get them. Even Sweden ran a nuclear weapons program. France got the bomb, and China did as well--much to the chagrin of the Soviets, who had undergone a dramatic split with the Chinese a few years earlier and whose original research work was invaluable in contributing to the Chinese nuclear program. It must be understood that back in those days building nuclear weapons was much more difficult than it is now, without computers or without even easy resources as to how they functioned. Nowadays, I can learn how to build a nuke off of Wikipedia, and, barring the ten tons of heavy water, hundreds of kilograms of natural uranium, and large quantity of nitric acid required, doing so is a relatively trivial task.
The real shift, however, began around 1970. The first major act in this was the development of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, in which all the nuclear powers promised to work towards the reduction and abolition of nuclear weapons, and in return the majority of non-nuclear powers agreed not to build nukes, and it is upon this foundation that the modern order is built. However, it has hardly proved perfectly successful--only six years later the detonation of the first Indian nuclear weapon occurred, which had been built using Canadian technology that had not been adequately controlled, or, indeed, controlled at all--the reactors Canada sells are, by the way, essentially DIY kits for nuclear weapons. As a result, an increasingly involved control regime began to be built. The IAEA was founded and membership was generally required for the ownership of nuclear reactors. The nuclear powers banded together to ensure that critical components of nuclear programs were not exported, pressured nations in their own blocs into cancelling nuclear programs [as the US did to both South Korea and Taiwan], and, barring some relatively low-profile cheating on the part of China, which has sold peripheral equipment to North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran, this vast patchwork mostly held together. As a result, instead of a predicted 30-40 nuclear weapons states, there are only 9 today.
Also around this time, both the US and USSR recognized that spending large quantities on building ever-increasing quantities of nuclear weapons without either side gaining any decisive advantage was helping absolutely nobody, and the two states began to agree to various reductions in arms and limitations in weapons development, including the ABM treaty and SALT.

4. Anti-ballistic missiles and Star Wars

Eventually, starting in around the 1970s, people got the idea that maybe you could stop ICBMs. This sounds absolutely ludicrous--but it wasn't, per se, impossible, and it led to a lot of really advanced, science-fiction sounding technology.
The very first method was to launch interceptor rockets that carried H-bombs of their own, aiming to detonate them close enough to the missiles that they would either destroy the reentry vehicles, their electronics, or cause a non-critical "fissile" of the warhead. This was halted, however, by the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, one of the first big arms limitations agreements, and also by a simple fact: Ground-based missile interceptors are generally much more expensive than building additional missiles--for instance, the US Ground-Based Midcourse Defense costs more to produce, missile for missile, than a LGM-118 with 12 warheads. This treaty actually held for its full term, despite what you may have expected, as it did not limit research, only the actual building of anti-ballistic missile systems, and actually, IIRC, excluded space-based defenses via omission. However, until Ronald Reagan came along, the idea of ABMs was largely cast to the wayside.
Reagan, however, revived the idea quite famously in his Strategic Defense Initiative, dubbed "Star Wars" by many. It explored a number of ideas, many of which were quite outlandish--one of the more successful proposals, at least in terms of how much funding or attention was devoted to it, involved setting off nuclear warheads in space to power x-ray lasers to shoot down enemy missiles, which if nothing else sounded really cool. By far the most practical program to emerge out of this, however [a rather relative merit], was called "Brilliant Pebbles". It relied on a constellation of tens of thousands of kinetic interceptors, small, only a few kilograms each, which would target and destroy any ballistic missiles in low orbit. This plan was supposed to solve the issue where interceptors were more expensive than missiles, and allow the US unquestioned missile superiority.
It was also around this time when surface-to-air missile systems, originally designed with the mission to shoot down aircraft, began gaining limited anti-ballistic missile capabilities, which were... somewhat underwhelming in the Gulf War, though the technology was brand new at the time.

5. Peace dividend

When the Cold War finally ended, one of the parts of the peace dividend that probably made more sense than most was the vast savings made on nuclear weapons. The trend had already begun in the late Cold War, but once the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union collapsed, stockpiles fell from tens of thousands of warheads to just a few thousand on the part of the US and Russia. All sides had a vested interest in arms reduction, and so those thousands of warheads were disassembled and largely turned into fuel for nuclear reactors.
Ballistic missile defenses also got cut. The original Brilliant Pebbles scheme was cancelled and replaced with a less-expensive but substantially less effective program called the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense, which relies on a relative handful of interceptor missiles in Alaska to shoot down ballistic missiles in the midcourse stage; primarily designed with China or North Korea in mind [oddly enough the first ballistic missile defense program of the US was also designed with the intent of stopping a Chinese nuclear attack]. Ironically Ground-Based Midcourse Defense ended up costing a large portion [more than half] of what the final Brilliant Pebbles implementations were proposed at, for a system with very limited capabilities [this cancellation may have also been part of what killed the DC-X spacecraft].
Vast fleets of SSBNs were disassembled. Expensive delivery platforms and programs, like the MX Peacekeeper, were scrapped. All in all, the threat of nuclear war practically vanished, excepting on the subcontinent, where India and Pakistan engaged in nuclear showboating multiple times. It's really hard to understate the sheer magnitude of what happened, with the number of warheads in existence shrinking from around 70,000 to 10,000 or so, with around half of those today being inactive. The US Navy went from stocking multiple warheads on each ship to removing them entirely from the fleet, aside from, of course, the SSBNs.
The successor states of the USSR, aside from Russia itself, were successfully convinced to hand over their nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees--Ukraine most infamously--and their fissile materials were turned into [relatively] harmless nuclear fuel. South Africa became the first nation with an independently developed nuclear arsenal to voluntarily denuclearize, admittedly largely out of fear of what the black population might do with the bomb.
Other areas saw major reductions and non--proliferation efforts. The Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program decommissioned large quantities of nuclear delivery vehicles and Soviet biological and chemical weapons sites. The Missile Technology Control Regime expanded and enveloped most nations with the capability to develop ballistic missiles and long-range cruise missiles, making nuclear weapons delivery difficult for the aspiring third world dictator--for instance, an Iraqi program to develop a ballistic missile in partnership with Argentina was scrapped by American pressure and Argentine admittance into the MTCR. While India and Pakistan still harassed each other, their open non-nuclear conventional war assuaged some concerns while raising others [perhaps nuclear powers could engage in conventional war after all]. Nuclear programs in several countries were stopped by diplomatic pressure, as in Libya, rather than by Israeli bombing campaigns.
For a time, all was peaceful. In the last decade or so, however, things have changed--and for the most part, they have done so below the radar of even Washington policymakers.

6. A Return To The Old Days?

Things in the past decade or so, however, have changed the nuclear situation substantially.
First on the list is that North Korea now has nuclear weapons and, it seems, a deterrent. This has seriously tested the efficacy of non-proliferation already, with the merit of non-proliferation when North Korea and Pakistan have weapons being rather suspect. Iran is also building nukes. North Korea's case was, and is, dangerous in particular because it suggests that, barring strong support from a great power, nukes are the only way to maintain autonomy [Ukraine and Libya both offering examples of why surrendering nukes, or even a nuclear program, is a bad idea to the world], and that they aren't too difficult to get. North Korea also may well already be engaging in proliferation activities as a revenue source--it's already known that they sell ballistic missile delivery vehicles and have exported materials related to chemical weapons production in the past, so exporting nuclear technology is hardly a stretch, especially given that North Korea is not seriously threatened by these activities and they provide a useful revenue source for the regime. As a result, the non-proliferation circle built over decades by the various great powers now has a rather large North Korea-shaped hole in it. This, however, isn't leading to big changes in Russia, China, and the United States. Rather, technological advancements, largely by the US and China, are slowly nibbling away at the tenuous nuclear peace.
Second is the problem, for Russia, created by the new Trident super-fuze. Under cover of a "refurbishment" of the Trident warhead family, a new fuze was introduced. However, this fuze is no mere one-for-one replacement: Instead, it allows the warhead to detonate within a range of zones that could destroy the target, allowing warheads that would previously overfly the target and miss to instead detonate in an airbust directly above said target. In effect, it increased the power of Trident by as many as five times, and has made it into a counterforce or first strike weapon. Quoted figures are a .86 probability of kill for a 10kpsi target, about as hard as defensive structures get, and .99 probability of kill for a standard, 2kpsi hardened target. As most of Russia's missile silos are only secure to the point of the latter, and Russia uses liquid-fueled ICBMs for the most part that are much more sensitive to attack than Western or Chinese solid-fueled ones, what this means is that Trident is now capable of wiping out Russia's entire ground-based strategic deterrent at extremely short notice. This has, it seems, quite possibly frightened Russian leadership, and is the likely reason why they have been desperately trying to devise new outlandish delivery vehicles, like an unmanned nuclear torpedo or a nuclear-powered cruise missile. This is further complicated by the fact that Russia has more or less completely lost its space-based ballistic missile warning network and does not seem to have the capability to replace it, which means that Russia must rely on land-based early warning radars to inform it of a nuclear strike. As a result, Russia will have as little as ten minutes of warning for an incoming nuclear attack, and will have essentially no idea what it will look like or what scale it is on. When Russian sources say they'll treat any ballistic missile strike as a nuclear attack, they probably aren't lying, because their sensor network is so bad they can't tell whether a sounding rocket is a nuclear first strike, and their survivability is so bad they can't afford to not launch.
There's also the interesting problem presented by the development of a new low-yield Trident warhead. While it might possibly have some use, many believe that low-yield nuclear weapons are dangerous because they blur the line between conventional and tactical nuclear war, and the use of Trident as a delivery vehicle runs a substantial risk on account of the fact that it may be difficult for an adversary [such as Russia] to discern that the vehicle is a tactical nuclear strike rather than the beginning of a strategic exchange. These same very concerns scuppered a conventional variant of Trident proposed for the Prompt Global Strike program, which would have used Trident to launch large conventional payloads, a bad idea for multiple reasons.
Arms agreements that defined the 1990s and 2000s have also begun to fall apart. The cancellation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty was just the latest in what has been a slowly escalating trend since the 2002 expiration of the anti-ballistic missile treaty. The Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement, for instance, which required the US and Russia to convert their stockpiles of plutonium into MOX reactor fuel, is also dead, ostensibly for financial reasons on the part of the US, but quite possibly to allow the US to retain its 80+ tons of plutonium in a diluted form so it can be easily converted back into warheads [keep in mind only a few kilograms of plutonium is needed for a warhead so we're talking about thousands of devices in the several hundred kiloton range].
Why this is happening is an interesting question, and it seems that both the US and Russia [but, to be honest, mostly the US] are involved in the end of these arms restriction treaties. The first problem, and most obvious, is China. China has a general policy of not engaging in arms-limitation treaties, viewing them as a way for dominant powers to retain their position, and has a nuclear arms reduction policy that amounts to "get rid of all of your nukes and then we'll talk". With China becoming an increasingly significant threat to the United States, the arms controls placed on it by agreement with Russia have become problematic for American strategic planners. In particular, the limitation on intermediate-range forces was seen as a major difficulty given the increasingly capable conventionally armed intermediate range ballistic and cruise missiles that are one of the edges the PLAN holds; and, I suspect [but cannot prove] that planners within the US government view tactical nuclear war with China as a very real thing they should plan for, with the US using nukes first to gain a decisive tactical advantage and not escalating to a strategic exchange--this is enabled by the fact that China has essentially no tactical nuclear weapons, seems to believe it can avoid nuclear war with the United States [or possibly not--I've heard both], and a very small strategic stockpile of which only around 50 missiles can hit the continental US. Russia, on the other hand, has a rather different problem. Its conventional forces in Europe are inferior in quality and quantity to what NATO can field, so it has to plan to make up the difference with nuclear weapons. Furthermore, the increasing sophistication of American capabilities in ways which Russia simply cannot match means that the survivability of the Russian nuclear force is beginning to be called into question, and thus a larger arsenal is required to ensure that a strategic deterrent can be maintained as it has traditionally. As a result, both parties are abandoning arms treaties with, well, reckless abandon.
Finally, the development of increasingly capable ballistic missile defenses, especially by the United States--which now holds pretty much all the cards in the event of nuclear war--means that nations will be required to develop either new and more sophisticated delivery vehicles, or, alternatively, produce more warheads, to ensure that they can maintain deterrence. These include the SM-3 anti-ballistic missile, which can intercept ballistic missiles in the midcourse stage, though only shorter ranged ones and not full ICBMs at the moment, and which is being deployed by the US not only aboard its numerous destroyer fleet but also in "AEGIS Ashore" sites in Eastern Europe [which also caused concern by Russia because these units could easily fire ground-launched cruise missiles that were banned under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty], and were to be deployed in Japan before local opposition halted construction. The US also designed THAAD, or Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, which provides an interceptor to destroy even ICBMs in the terminal stage, and has made significant improvements to the Patriot missile system which enhance its ABM capabilities. The US has also discussed reviving technologies from previously abandoned schemes such as the YAL-1, a 747 that aimed to shoot down ballistic missiles with lasers at a range of hundreds of kilometers [though it was suggested the new implementation be on a stealth drone] and even considered further research into space-based interceptors--which seem far more feasible in a day and age when private companies are already putting up constellations of advanced communications satellites in similar numbers to those proposed for the "Brilliant Pebbles" scheme.

7. Conclusion

As a result of these shifts, the current lull in nuclear war preparations and small nuclear arsenals of today may not last much longer. Indeed, to an extent, the lull has already ended.
Without a doubt Biden will try to negotiate a renewal of New START--he himself has stated his intent to do so multiple times, but the short time window he has in which to renew it [it expires on 5 February 2021, little more than a week after his inauguration] means that whether he will be successful is uncertain. Even if New START is renewed or brought back in a new form I would expect it to be much less restrictive and a de facto abandonment of the arms reduction that has characterized the last thirty years of nuclear policy. I also don't think that New START, even extended, will last past 2026--that's the point when major nuclear modernizations are set to begin to the US arsenal, including the introduction of the Columbia-class SSBN into service and replacement of the 1960s-era Minuteman III ICBM that constitutes the ground-based deterrent.
Both the US and Russia are poised to make major modernizations to their nuclear arsenals and I expect both of their stockpiles to grow barring a renewal of New START as presently constituted. I also expect that the US may well begin preparing to build new facilities for nuclear weapons production, as its old ones have pretty much all closed at this point. Nuclear weapons may also begin to see a return to the naval field, with nuclear-tipped anti-ship missiles and torpedoes possibly seeing revivals--watch for a return to the US's historic nuclear ambiguity policy on whether or not its ships carry nuclear weapons.
New forecasts say that China is poised to double its nuclear arsenal in the next decade, and I suspect these ones will actually turn out, because China knows that their arsenal at present is too small to pose an effective deterrent to tactical nuclear war and may, within a relatively short time, become an ineffective strategic deterrent.
The list of states with nuclear weapons is likely to grow--South Korea is a near sure bet for reasons I have described previously, but I would not be surprised to see more states get the bomb. Iran seems likely to build one unless stopped via force, and they've gotten quite close already. However, more than the number of states which will possess nuclear weapons outright will grow, I predict a major expansion in nations which attempt to reach a nuclear-latent state. The recent burst of smallsat launchers provides a perfect cover for ballistic missile systems to be developed; drone technology and electronics have made cruise missiles easier than ever to design, and nuclear power will be sought after by a large number of states with potentially ulterior motives--once a sufficient stockpile of used fuel is made reprocessing it to extract the plutonium within is relatively trivial, and I expect more states to push for reprocessing technology and "full control over the nuclear fuel-cycle". As a result, strategic planners may ultimately have to reckon with a world in which most nations [or far more than the 9 current nuclear-armed states] could well develop modest nuclear arsenals within a few months to a few years.
As for what the US should do--well, my opinion is that the US should just embrace the inevitable. During the Cold War, the US saw that France wasn't going to be stopped from building the bomb--so instead they helped the French build their weapons and thus gained the trust and friendship of the entire French strategic community, at least to an extent where their nuclear and even conventional forces were de facto reintegrated into NATO.
That has lessons for today, I think. If something is going to happen one way or another, the US should just embrace it and try to help the process along and gain the trust and friendship of the nation involved, provided such a move is not directly contrary to American interests. For instance, take South Korea. If it becomes clear that South Korea intends to build nuclear weapons, the US would be better off discretely enabling that by amending its Section 123 agreement and clandestinely supporting the program than trying to fight it.
The US should also seriously reconsider whether it should maintain a non-proliferation stance, although I can see strong cases on both sides. Non-proliferation has failed to stop Pakistan or North Korea, and at that point it's really rather questionable whether it works, but for the moment it's the only thing that's holding the Middle East and world as a whole back from a nuclear arms race. If Iran does get the bomb, I doubt that the US will continue to hold onto that position. At that point [or this point] most of the nations the US doesn't want to have the bomb either already have it, cannot be stopped from getting it without war, or just flat out can't build it due to lack of money, will, and resources. It's unlikely that the US will openly support proliferation, especially Congress, but I find it quite probable that the US may well take a "wink-and-a-nudge" approach to the whole issue. A Section 123 Agreement might be amended to allow reprocessing and a solid-fuelled smallsat launcher sold or authorized, but how was the US government to know that the nation was pursuing nuclear weapons?
Furthermore, the US should start preparing as if an all-out nuclear arms race may resume, because it may well do so. Developing a new comprehensive ballistic missile defense strategy is part of this, possibly including Brilliant Pebbles--I'm a strong advocate of at least researching the solution especially given that so many hurdles already have been met by private companies like SpaceX--but also terminal defenses and directed-energy weapons. The US should also begin thoroughly examining the use of nuclear weapons in a modern context and prepare facilities needed for the production of additional warheads, including possibly a lithium-separation site to manufacture additional tritium, as well as reprocessing sites to produce additional plutonium.
[citations in comments due to max character limit]
submitted by AmericanNewt8 to neoliberal [link] [comments]


2020.09.03 12:27 RobleViejo Your casual UFO enthusiasts conversation

The following is an interchange of private messages between another user and me. Im posting this because I think it would be a waste to keep this conversation to ourselves, as our texts are a combination of ideas and links backing up those ideas. This interchange consist of Two PMs sent to me by [user] back to back, and my Two PMs in reply, but they are cited below as "First PM - First Reply" so it makes more sense and it easier to read. Im sure Im gonna get flagged in some way because of this, and I'm not using a throwaway account because I stand for everything I say. May the Truth escape the Grip of Secrecy our leaders have been negating. But ALWAYS make up your own mind.
"I Want To Believe, but Only Science Guides My Thoughts"

First PM from [user]

your comment about how UFOs travel
from [user] sent 11 hours ago
"My point is referred to the "maneuvers outside the normal laws of physics"
Here's a copy of my post today describing my discovery of the mechanism some UFOs use for transport so they don't maneuver "outside the normal laws of physics":
Physicists years ago determined that the seemingly impossible speeds and maneuvers by UFOs reported by countless witnesses can be explained if the UFOs distorted space as a transport mechanism. Einstein's law of relativity says that space and time are actually one single entity, spacetime - - and that it’s possible to distort space - - for example, with an intense gravitational field. This has already been verified with countless experiments - - including observations of the extreme distortion of the shapes of galaxies outside the edges and behind other galaxies that have very intense gravity. Physicists determined that if a UFO distorted the space between its present location and target location, it could perform its seemingly impossible maneuvers and still obey the laws of physics.
I discovered a mechanism that some UFOs could use to distort space. I first discovered this mechanism while watching a NASA channel program, where a NASA scientist who studied Lightning described his experiences when Lightning hit his jet. He said that everything moved in "Slow Motion"; and he could watch the lightning as it moved across the outside surface of the jet. This, of course, would normally be impossible to watch since a Lightning discharge occurs in only a split second. He says Lightning caused everything to move in Slow Motion shortly after position 2:14 in this NASA Channel video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pi5FP2G05k
Because he could watch the Lightning move - - that "seemed to take forever", while everything moved in "Slow Motion" - - I concluded that an Extremely high voltage Static Electricity discharge (Lightning) can slow down the passage of Time - can Distort Time. Since Einstein's law of relativity says that time and space are one single entity, spacetime, this Time Distortion should be accompanied by a simultaneous Space Distortion. Since physicists determined that UFOs must Distort Space to perform their seemingly impossible maneuvers, it follows that that some UFOs can use Extremely high voltage Static Electricity, like Lightning, to cause the Distortion of Space for transport. This theory is confirmed by the Rendlesham Forest UFO:
In James Fox’s UFO movie documentary “Out of the Blue”, in the video near position 51:40 three soldiers at the Rendlesham Forest Air Force Base in England describe the UFO that landed in the forest next to the base at night. Shortly after position 54:40 the chief of security at the base, Sgt. Penniston, says as he walked up to the craft there was "Static Electricity in the air".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssa7V0l7c0E
On the next night in a different online testimony another soldier said he felt Static Electricity when a UFO flew near treetop level above his head. And another Air Force officer said as he walked toward another UFO that landed just outside the forest, it felt like he was walking through Jello - - another way of say that everything moved in Slow Motion, and that Time had slowed down - - that the UFO had Distorted / Dilated Time.
In another excellent video with a high quality accurate computer animation of the landed UFO based on Sgt. Penniston’s description, starting shortly after position 4:2S he says as they walked toward the landed Craft, "We started feeling Static Electricity on our skin, and on our hair, and on our clothes. One of the unusual effects is that once we entered this immediate area around the craft, it felt like everything went in Slow Motion. It felt like there was a dragging of time" .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgAIQ0OCaxs
This is the same phrase used by the NASA scientist when Lightning hit his jet that led me to conclude that Extremely high voltage Static Electricity, like Lightning, distorts Space and Time (Spacetime). Penniston then says their watches later showed the wrong time - - 45 minutes in the past -- confirming again that Extremely high voltage Static Electricity Distorts Time, and is used by some UFOs for transport. He also couldn't see any landing gear under Craft - - so apparently the Craft also used this high voltage Static Electricity for levitation. His buddy who stood farther away said elsewhere in an online testimony that he experienced a space distortion effect, where this area looked like it was miles across rather that just a few feet across - - AGAIN confirming my theory that some UFOs use Extremely high voltage Static Electricity to distort Space and Time (Spacetime) for transport (and apparently also for levitation):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgAIQ0OCaxs
Accurate computer rendition of Rendlesham Forest UFO based on Sgt. Penniston's description. Screenshots are taken from previously linked video:
1: https://imgur.com/a/P2EuxEW
2: https://imgur.com/a/uQqlcpF
3: https://imgur.com/a/0OtNVKZ
4: https://imgur.com/a/Bwx5R4L
5: https://imgur.com/a/apAmN2P
6: https://imgur.com/a/8MYyjT3
7: https://imgur.com/a/OrC8NdB
8: https://imgur.com/a/f107bYF
According to my theory, the white light enveloping the UFO Craft as it takes off is white hot PLASMA , a continuous Extremely high voltage Static Electricity discharge like the white hot Static Electricity discharge of a Lightning bolt / Thunderbolt. The laws of physics in electromagnetism show that electrons, including electrons in a Static Electricity discharge, can be channeled to move in various directions with a magnetic field. So, the UFO's surface could be magnetized to channel the Static Electricity electron plasma to form an envelope of Lightning around the Craft.
https://imgur.com/a/f107bYF

First Reply from [RobleViejo]

re: your comment about how UFOs travel
to [user] sent 49 minutes ago
He says Lightning caused everything to move in Slow Motion shortly after position 2:14 in this NASA Channel video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pi5FP2G05k
To be fair, he says and quote "[only lasts about one second but it seems to take forever when you it hit the aircraft]"
And another Air Force officer said as he walked toward another UFO that landed just outside the forest, it felt like he was walking through Jello - - another way of say that everything moved in Slow Motion, and that Time had slowed down
Sgt. Penniston’s description, [...] he says as they walked toward the landed Craft, "We started feeling Static Electricity on our skin, and on our hair, and on our clothes. One of the unusual effects is that once we entered this immediate area around the craft, it felt like everything went in Slow Motion. It felt like there was a dragging of time"
What I don't understand is how a human could possible perceive a change in the passage of time, wouldn't the EEG Brain Activity also be affected by it, and thus negate the perception of the time delay? At the end of the day perception (depth, color, touch, hearing, everything) works by comparing what you are perceiving with the background. Maybe this is something similar to the Doppler Effect in sound waves, Gravitational Waves HAVE been proven to exist so it wouldn't be too out of whack to think this "Time Delay" is some kind of "Gravitational Doppler effect". Im saying this because if you could perceive the delay of time inside the aircraft then you would feel like it takes YEARS to go from A to B.
Oh, and this is the moment to point out that Lazar described a "gravitational pocket that isolated the craft from the spacetime surrounding it" so yeah, you're right assuming this technology distorts time or even isolate the craft from the passage of time.
that led me to conclude that Extremely high voltage Static Electricity, like Lightning, distorts Space and Time (Spacetime). Penniston then says their watches later showed the wrong time - - 45 minutes in the past -- confirming again that Extremely high voltage Static Electricity Distorts Time, and is used by some UFOs for transport. He also couldn't see any landing gear under Craft - - so apparently the Craft also used this high voltage Static Electricity for levitation. His buddy who stood farther away said elsewhere in an online testimony that he experienced a space distortion effect, where this area looked like it was miles across rather that just a few feet across - - AGAIN confirming my theory that some UFOs use Extremely high voltage Static Electricity to distort Space and Time (Spacetime) for transport (and apparently also for levitation)
We can actually prove this, by attaching a very finely tuned clock to this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vxror-fnOL4. We know that movement itself, of any kind, slows down time, but if the negation of the gravitational pull makes this effect even stronger then we are on the trail.
And this is the moment to point out another thing, very important: Light does not experience the passage of time at all, literally. Because it moves at the Speed of Causality, which could be understood as the "Speed of Time", is not correct to call it that way but it helps me understand what it is and how it works. And yeah, if you move at the Speed of Causality then time "freezes" completely
the white light enveloping the UFO Craft as it takes off is white hot PLASMA , a continuous Extremely high voltage Static Electricity discharge like the white hot Static Electricity discharge of a Lightning bolt / Thunderbolt. The laws of physics in electromagnetism show that electrons, including electrons in a Static Electricity discharge, can be channeled to move in various directions with a magnetic field. So, the UFO's surface could be magnetized to channel the Static Electricity electron plasma to form an envelope of Lightning around the Craft.
Holy shit buddy! I think you're right!
Ok, I finished Part One of your PMs. Im gonna link you two videos that made me think of the possibility that these crafts use water as fuel (Im not gonna fetch the testimonies that associate large masses of water with UFOs sightings because there are a LOT and Im sure you knew about that already)
Theoretically speaking, you can have a substance with Negative Mass, but it MUST be a liquid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DW7VBrKmLS8
"Punching Water So Hard LIGHT Comes Out - Sonoluminescence": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puVxGnl_3y8&t=1264s
I think that the combination of our ideas leads to some theories that no one is considering.
And this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ugQArIkM8A Go to the "03:40 min" mark. Ning Li is our White Rabbit, and the fact that she disappeared but her company is still cited as active and paying taxes regardless of not launching any product, ever, is our best evidence that she indeed, succeed at creating an anti-gravity device. Maybe the fuel is water at a Boss-Einstein Condensate state moving in a disc, that would explain the shape of the Flying Saucers (and that maybe would mean the Flying Saucers are the USA's UFOs). But the dates dont match.
Ima read your second pm now.

Second PM from [user]

UFOs
from [user] sent 7 hours ago
Here is additional evidence that UFOs distort Space as a transport mechanism. It's from my research and analysis of George Adamski's movie film of a UFO very close above his friend's home. You can clearly see the UFO distorting Space in his film.
When I first learned about Adamski's UFO pictures and contacts I disregarded them as fake ... But then I kept coming across bits and pieces of information that forced me to change my assessment.
One Very Important piece of information came from William Sherwood, the "Father of Optical Photometry", and one of the top optical physicists in the world. He worked at Eastman Kodak Company headquarters in Rochester, NY. He and other scientists there examined the Kodak Kodachrome color movie film of the UFO in 1965 a few feet above Adamski's friend Madelyn Rottifer's home in Silver Spring, MD. He also visited her home to measure the position of the UFO. Here is what he said in his video testimony about his and his fellow Kodak scientists' findings:
“Densitometers, photometers, projection devices of all sorts, electronic devices, everything that you could name that you could use, telephotometers, and so on; the electron microscope was used by a man at Kodak park. Everything pointed to the conclusion that the objects in the film were true, unknown objects, not model objects. And it was taken by Madelyn Exactly as she told us it was.”
His entire testimony can be seen starting at position 7:45 in the following video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QDBmmbqwF8
and continued in this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdrNKz60BVM
In a letter to Ronald Caswell, William Sherwood later wrote: “When Mr Adamski came to Rochester in March, 1965, I took him to Eastman Kodak Co. and introduced him to scientists and photographic specialists in the optical laboratory. (…) They accepted his films as genuine. A typical comment was: ‘We wouldn’t begin to know how to fake such a film if we wanted to…’.”
A testimony from a scientist with such high credentials as this man
cannot be brushed aside!
The 2nd video above also shows the testimony of a man who worked as a film expert for the United Nations, who analyzed Admski's color film and visited Madyelyn's home where the UFO was filmed. He also determined that the UFO in the film is authentic.
William Sherwood used the distance of the UFO that he determined when he visited Madelyn's home, and the focal length of the movie camera, and the size of the Craft measured on the film, along with a mathematical equation to determine that the Craft was 27 feet in diameter. Here is a collage I made from various frames in the film. It periodically extends and retracts a ball shaped object on the underside of the craft:
https://i.imgur.com/AmY2Zbf.png
One thing that is very noticeable is that the right side of the UFO PERIODICALLY BECOMES DISTORTED AND INCREASED IN LENGTH:
https://i.imgur.com/HKY10bJ.png
The distorted odd-looking UFO shape in parts of the film doesn't conform to the concept that people had, and still have, in their minds of the classical round, symmetrical shape that a UFO should have. And the continually changing shape from the classical round shape to the lopsided unsymmetrical shape with right much longer than left side is even more Bizarre. The vast majority of people would never conceive of a UFO changing shape like this. So, you wouldn't expect someone who wanted to deceive the public by hoaxing a UFO, to create such a ridiculous UFO that doesn't fit in with peoples' pre-conceived notions - it would drastically reduce the chances that people would believe it.
But this distorted shape is exactly what, years later, physicists determined what UFOs must be able to do - - to move at seemingly impossible speeds, and perform seemingly impossible maneuvers (like making split second sharp angle turns at thousands of miles an hour; and stopping from that speed in a split second). Physicists determined the only way a UFO could move this way is if it Distorts Space. Einstein showed it's possible to distort space (with an intense gravitational field for example). The distortion on the right side of Adamski's UFO indicates that it Distorted Space, giving the illusion of the increase in length of the right side.
https://i.imgur.com/HKY10bJ.png
Although this doesn't fit in with the public's pre-conceived notion of what a UFO should look like - - Adamski's Distorted UFO DOES fit in with the concept that physicists later developed to explain how UFOs maneuver by Distorting Space. This, together with the Kodak scientists' determination that the UFO in Adamski's film is authentic, and the United Nations film expert's determination that the UFO in Adamski's film is authentic
is undeniable evidence PROVING that the UFO in Adamski's Film is AUTHENTIC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdrNKz60BVM

Second Reply to [user]

re: UFOs
to [user] sent 11 minutes ago
George Adamski's movie film of a UFO
Holy shit, thats the most detailed UFO picture Ive ever seen. The three spheres underneath coincide with Lazar's claim. But the shape, the way its designed, look VERY human. What do you think about the "NAZI Bell"? Because if that is real it might have some relation with George Adamski's UFO. The dates between the fall of NAZI Germany and that sighting line up.
One thing that is very noticeable is that the right side of the UFO PERIODICALLY BECOMES DISTORTED AND INCREASED IN LENGTH: https://i.imgur.com/HKY10bJ.png
Now we talking, who would distort fake pictures on purpose? Only undermines credibility. I believe every word of Adamski's interview, but the whole "They wanted us to record them so the people would know" is very fishy. If they wanted people to know they would have landed in the middle of Wall Street.
But this distorted shape is exactly what, years later, physicists determined what UFOs must be able to do [...]. Physicists determined the only way a UFO could move this way is if it Distorts Space. Einstein showed it's possible to distort space [...] The distortion on the right side of Adamski's UFO indicates that it Distorted Space, giving the illusion of the increase in length of the right side.
Yes. Im gonna take a shot and call this "Gravitational Doppler Effect". Because of gravity "curves" light, Gravitational Waves would indeed distort Light around the object affected by them, something akin the Doppler Effect of the distorted Sound coming from a fast moving object. This is truly fascinating, Ive never consider that.
Ok... That was it. I finished both PMs. Main points I added to my "thoughts collection" regarding UFOs:
Dude, again, thanks for these PMs, I loved how you backed up every sentence with links. This is the Way.
Much love and remember: May the Truth escape the Grip of Secrecy.

END OF CITATION

If you make it this far, thank you very much for your time and attention. Only collective thinking leads to collective answers. But keep in mind, these are two nutheads theorycrafting about something that escapes their scientific qualifications. NEVER accept internet stuff as true, but CONSIDER the context and sources so you can ALWAYS make up your own mind.
Peace, Love and Truth.
submitted by RobleViejo to ufo [link] [comments]


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